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Comment by xyst | Hacker News Reader

If it wasn’t apparent already that nvidia is overpriced. This is the nail in the coffin.

As soon as the AI bubble pops (ie, current generation AI fail to meet unreasonably high expectations), nvidia will come crashing down fast.

OpenAI ceo pursued a $7 trillion dollar ask for investment in semiconductors.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-seeks-trillions-of-do...

VR, crypto, real estate. All of the hallmarks of a bubble exist with the current phase of AI

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There seems to be a non zero chance that AI is a transformative tech a la the internet. Then the bear case becomes is Nvidia the same as Cisco in 1999? Did Cisco have a moat like CUDA? Will the AI boom be like 1999? Do you compare p/e, forward p/e or p/s which all paint a different picture of how similar the stocks are.

I would suggest it’s not totally apparent what will happen with the Nvidia stock price, especially as the ramifications for the world could be so huge if AI is as transformative as speculated. It threatens the stability of many other markets / stocks.

Time will tell!

While time will tell, if "AI" brings us a beneficial application, you can safely bet against a lot of industries, since the destructive uses are already proven. So far AI excels only in human mimicry, which strongly enables abuse and exploitation, but has little legitimate value.

Spam and fishing will break basically everything without authentication. Youtube and Google search are already half broken because of AI spam. Dating Apps will break, comment sections will break, the web is gonna break for the most part... Not looking good for classic telecommunication either, since you can't trust messages and calls anymore.

Education, data analysis and coding are applications showing real benefits, especially as supplementaries to the existing practices.

I think spam is a problem that will be fixed due to it's importance. There are real potential uses of blockchain technology here. I'm super interested in how the banking system KYC stack could be used in conjunction with NFTs to provide proof of factual claims.

Alot of dating apps, especially Tinder, are already broken. The number of legit profiles vs. the number of fake ones is probably like 10-1. Zoosk at least tries.

Cisco was a very similar situation actually. Lots of "routers" out there (way more than other brands making GPUs), but the cisco stuff just "worked" in corporate environments and had the best interop with the rest of the network.

Ultimately though people figured out the other stuff and while cisco is still very popular for core routers they are no longer the only reasonable option.

The stock has only just now recovered 25 years later from the .com crash.

Nah he didn’t really do that, did he? Hehe

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