Right now, the price of a Falcon 9 launch is around $50mil, this translates to $4.8/g to LEO or $16.7/g to GTO (which is where most satellites go). This compares very favorably to the price of other western launchers (Atlas V: $18/g, Ariane 5: $21/g, Delta IV: $19.5/g to GTO and around $11-$14/g to LEO) and is very competitive compared to Russian launchers (Soyuz 2: $16.7/g, Proton M: $18.2/g to GTO or $6.4/g and $4.8/g to LEO respectively).
However, keep in mind that these are prices, which include a healthy profit margin for SpaceX, and it's no coincidence that they have priced themselves right at the level of the otherwise cheapest launch vehicles in the world (since that maximizes their profit margin). Also keep in mind that as SpaceX's operations and manufacturing become more streamlined, as they amortize the fixed development costs for the Falcon 9 (which won't take long since the costs are a small multiple of the per flight revenue), as flight rate increases, and as competitive pressure to lower their profit margin increases they will be able to offer launches for considerably less than they are today, at lower prices than the Soyuz or Proton, for example.
However, this is just the beginning, as SpaceX has several development efforts in progress. The Falcon Heavy, for example, represents an incremental evolution of the Falcon 9 design, using 3 1st stage cores (instead of just one) and using a new cross-feed system to improve performance. The thing about the Falcon Heavy is that it uses slightly less than 3x as much hardware at about 2x the cost of a Falcon 9 launch but it will be able to deliver 5x the payload. This will translate into prices around $6.6/g to GTO and $2.4/g to LEO, at the high end ($4.2/g and $1.5/g at the low end). Nobody else in the world can come close to those numbers.
Also, they are working on a fully reusable version of the Falcon 9 which will reduce costs by at least a factor of 5 conservatively and perhaps as much as a factor of 100.
The maiden flight for the Falcon Heavy is slated to be next year. And they have already begun development on the core systems for the reusable Falcon (here's the 1st stage landing gear they've built for one of the test vehicles: http://s3.amazonaws.com/imgly_production/4311966/large.jpg).
Assuming current incumbents are capable of doing that. That's a big if. If their competition can't effectively compete, their profit margins will remain steady allowing them to develop more interesting vehicles/capabilities.
Also, to some degree as the space tourism market gains traction there will be some amount of competitive pressure on the costs of orbital tourism from the sub-orbital market (Virgin Galactic and others). More so, once SpaceX has proven their business model it will drive a lot of investment capital to their competitors (both old and new) to try to level the playing field.
With the way launches tend to slip, I wouldn't be surprised if you're right about it happening next year, but as of right now, it's on Vandenberg's launch schedule for 2012.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?PHPSESSID=b4bab31...
For me however, this in itself is a pretty amazing thing, because SpaceX is a 'company' rather than a 'nation-state' the cost accounting is actually grounded in an independent currency and without hidden funding sources (like much of both the US and Soviet space programs benefited hugely from the investment in inter-continental ballistic missile technology which was 'defense' spending rather than 'space' spending. Such games are not possible at SpaceX.
So it would be accurate to say that the Falcon9 launch system is the first system for which we know the true cost of the system. And that is pretty amazing to my way of thinking.
When you combine that with a fixed price to get various tonnage in LEO or a into a Geo/Lunar transfer orbit, you can make statements like "Getting this into orbit costs $X" with overruns/delays/randomness priced out.
With some newer work being developed for on orbit vehicles, things like Lunar exploitation and Lagrange point stations become an exercise in money rather than politics and money. And that is also a huge shift.
"Q. How much does it cost to launch a Space Shuttle? A. The average cost to launch a Space Shuttle is about $450 million per mission." [1]
[1] http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/information/shuttl...
"The average price of a full-up NASA Dragon cargo mission to the International Space Station is $133 million including inflation, or roughly $115m in today's dollars, and we have a firm, fixed price contract with NASA for 12 missions. This price includes the costs of the Falcon 9 launch, the Dragon spacecraft, all operations, maintenance and overhead, and all of the work required to integrate with the Space Station. If there are cost overruns, SpaceX will cover the difference. (This concept may be foreign to some traditional government space contractors that seem to believe that cost overruns should be the responsibility of the taxpayer.)
The total company expenditures since being founded in 2002 through the 2010 fiscal year were less than $800 million, which includes all the development costs for the Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Dragon. Included in this $800 million are the costs of building launch sites at Vandenberg, Cape Canaveral and Kwajalein, as well as the corporate manufacturing facility that can support up to 12 Falcon 9 and Dragon missions per year. This total also includes the cost of five flights of Falcon 1, two flights of Falcon 9, and one up and back flight of Dragon." [2]
Space Shuttle: $19, 824 per kg [1]
Soyuz-2: $5,333 per kg [2]
Falcon 9: $5,167 per kg [3]
At the moment, the Falcon 9 is not that much cheaper than the Soyuz.Elon Musk's talk of $1,100 per kg lies in the future. SpaceX is hoping that making all the parts reusable and its new Falcon Heavy (Which will carry five times as much as the Falcon 9) will cause launch costs to plummet like a stone.
Which is not to say SpaceX isn't amazing. It has been launching rockets for that past 6 years. Whereas Soyuz has been the 40 year work of a superpower. Achieving parity is a wonder in and of itself.
[1] $450 million cost per launch / 22,700 kg payload
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/information/shuttl...
[2] $40 million / 7,500 kg payload
http://myblog.rsynnott.com/2010/03/rocket-fuel-not-as-expens...
[3] $54 million / 10,450 kg payload
http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php
Edit: Grammar, formatting
Obviously this is pure theorycraft for the Space Shuttle. But if anyone has a better number please share!
$/kg is the crucial number that has to fall to bring about a new era in space exploration.
Except for SpaceX, space launch companies don't publish their prices straight up on the website. But about $5,000 per kg ballpark figure for Soyuz seems widely to be accepted by credible sources on the internet and books. See:
http://books.google.com/books?id=kN9Szy-fJVIC&pg=PA69...
If someone has harder numbers for the Soyuz, please share!
A moot point now, since the Shuttle isn't operational. However, when it was running the incremental cost to NASA was around $500 mil per launch, so roughly $20,500 per kg to LEO. Tallying the full cost per Shuttle launch (i.e. the cost to the tax payers over the full history of the program) runs to about $1.5 billion per launch, so adjust those numbers above up by a factor of 3.