This translates into higher prices at the cash register, both at the grocery, and at the restaurant.
Nothing all that interesting.
Or at least, that's the reason for why prices were up in 2022.
We're no longer in 2022, though. In 2024, wheat prices are ~the same as they were in January 2020, but rice prices are ~50% higher.
Whether you want to attribute that to price stickiness due to the war, drought conditions in Asia, or spirit animals, that's up to you.
Russia produce(d) a significant amount of fertilizer which is required to keep much of the world's breadbaskets and farming functioning such as farmland in Brazil. Less fertilizer means less yield from land which has cascading affects into prices of various inputs. Lower yields of onions, tomatoes, etc will raise the prices of the product.
One of Ukraine's exports was wheat and sunflower products. The absence of wheat from a major producer puts the rest of the world in competition with your wheat products. In addition to bread products and much of the middle aisle of your grocery store, wheat products also go into animal feed. Higher inputs to your animal food costs.
Most "quality" beef is grain-finished in the US (this is not a debate about if grain finished makes better steak, its' just a reality in restaurant supply). If you have more expensive wheat inputs for your higher quality beef, prices go up.
Can't escape thermodynamics.
That is, for (random) example, consumers didn't switch from beef to pork because their tastes changed but because beef became too exoensive. But swap out beef for pork and POOF you've lowed inflation. Yeah. But you've also lowered the broader quality of the goods in the index.
I don't think there is anyone I know who believes inflation is back down to 2%. Anecdotal? Sure. But perception is reality, especially in an election year.
All other things being equal, pumping money into the system doesn't cause tomato prices to rise by magic. It does so through higher wages.
Inflation, The Fed's 2% target type, is a systematic way of devaluing your buying power. Full stop. Do the math... in 35 yrs - half a lifetime - that cuts the value of your money *in half*. But 2% "inflation" sounds so sweet, easy and must be inevitable, doesn't it? btw, Inflation also helps increase income inequality. It helps move more to the top.
Put another way, given the improvements in technology, productivity, efficiency, globalization, etc. why are prices going up at all? Who benefits from a system that runs complete counter to logic?
I recently finished Lyn Alden's "Broken Money" and highly recommend it, especially the first four sections.
We could outlaw war and drought, I suppose.
We could have more labour done by indentures and slaves, that might drive the wage part of the equation down.
We could tax or seize the profit margins and redistribute them to the people buying $22 burritos.
Or we could just live with the understanding that this is a Premium Burrito (tm) that should only be eaten for weddings or birthdays, and it's not supposed to be affordable.
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(I make Premium Burritos at home for a lot less than $22, but I also don't have to pay myself - or shovel money into rent for a hip storefront... Or raise prices by $5 because my ingredient and labor costs went up by $2...)