> Given the total failure to achieve any of its stated objectives, has this use of AI benefited the IDF at all?
Hamas has been considerably diminished. It's not accurate to say the war has been a "total failure".
Hamas has been considerably diminished. It's not accurate to say the war has been a "total failure".
It seems to me that Israel's overall position - politically, diplomatically, and in terms of physical security - has become much worse since the October 7 attack and it has been their own actions that are responsible for the change. A different response should have seen them politically and diplomatically strengthened.
I understand the emotive reasons for not doing so, but I think most people would consider that Israel has bungled their response to October 7.
I would call this attack on Gaza a total failure. If nothing else a failure of humanity.
It's looking more and more like the 'winners' in this situation are Hamas and the losers are the Israeli government, the US government, and the Israeli and Palestinian people.
That's delusional. Hamas’ operational capabilities have been highly diminished. Their leadership is in exile. It looks increasingly likely that their ground forces will be destroyed. While they've found sympathy among the Arab population, it's notable that not a single government--outside Iran--has offered to materially support them. And even Iran is starting to be constrained in its regional capabilities.
Israel isn’t winning. But Hamas isn’t either.
Compare this to the situation prior to October 7.
With regard to your belief that it looks like Hamas ground forces will be destroyed, I doubt this very much. All indications are that this is not happening. Every area that Israel claims to have 'cleared' they are having to return to. Israel claims to have killed some 9000 Hamas militants, but with fatalities of around 32,000 in Gaza so far this would mean almost every one of those fatalities that was not a woman or child was a militant. That's beyond unlikely.
This attack on Gaza will be wound back long before Hamas is eradicated (and this includes the militant wing). When that happens Hamas will emerge in a better position than prior to October 7 and Israel will be in a worse position.
Hamas' stated objective of exposing Israel is being achieved. The Israeli government has been extremely naive and short sighted in this regard.
Right. This is the best support Hamas could muster. Unguided pot shots. That’s the point. Nobody real put anything at risk except a proxy force in Yemen.
> attack on Gaza will be wound back long before Hamas is eradicated (and this includes the militant wing)
Doubtful but plausible. That doesn’t bring back the military infrastructure. They’re highly degraded, from the loss of their tunnels to operational supremacy. It’s also naive to imagine Israel isn’t placing surveillance infrastructure that will take Gazans decades to debug.
> Israeli government has been extremely naive and short sighted
Agree. But it doesn’t look like Hamas will win anything. They’ll get a minor PR win, maybe even an ICJ ruling, and their delegates will complain comfortably from Doha for the rest of their careers. But their days as a relevant fighting force appear numbered, though as you say, that’s not a given.
> Hamas' stated objective of exposing Israel
Winning sympathy while losing ground, infrastructure and fighting forces is a terrible trade. (It’s also one virtually everyone who loses a war gets as a consolation prize.)
Terrible trade with respect to what objective? Hamas never had the capability to defeat Israel in a conventional war. Their infrastructure and fighting forces were a means to a political and ideological end. They are closer to achieving those ends now than before October 7th.
Israel's high-tech export economy, the US diplomatic shield at the UN, and diplomatic alignment and domestic stability in Egypt and other Arab states are things that Israel needs for its long-term survival, and this war is undermining those things. Israel is in a position of strength now, but there may come a day where one of their neighbors surpasses them economically given significantly larger population sizes. Sort of a China vs Japan situation. That will be the real threat. Hamas is a blip in the bigger picture.
That said, this meme that "you can't defeat Hamas because it's an idea" is definitely false. Hamas are not just an idea, they are a government and a military, and just like with Russia's invasion of Grozny (another immortal "idea"), they can be defeated militarily, at great cost to innocent civilians.
We are further from a Palestinian state, much less one run by Hamas, than before. I don’t see what desirBle ends Hamas has brought closer.
People have always complained about Israel. There is more complaining now. That’s not a qualitative difference. On the other side, Gaza appears to be heading towards no government or some form of occupation, whether by Israel or a coalition including Arab states. Its civil infrastructure and economy are wrecked; an entire generation has likely already suffered permanent health debilitation. One has to be incredibly rosy and chart a course forward entirely separate from the history of modern conflicts to paint a picture in which Hamas, let alone the Palestinian people, come out of this ahead of where they were in September.
I will agree with you that there is a path forward where you are correct. Maybe Israel repeats what Russia did in Grozny. Hamas is defeated. Gaza is then rebuilt. Tensions then go down. It's possible.
Agree. But we're closer to a two-state solution than the destruction of Israel.
> Gen Z and Gen Alpha's political influence in the US removing the diplomatic shield at the UN opening the way for sanctions
You're describing a political turning point decades away. And it doesn't lead to the destruction of Israel, just weakening its occupation. Also, Israel is a rich and vibrant economy. It wouldn't take that much for it to pivot to another security guarantor if the U.S. ditches it in 30+ years (when the relevant generations will be at the peak of their power).
> Hamas is defeated. Gaza is then rebuilt.
If Hamas is defeated fast, maybe. But again, Gaza would be rebuilt under occupation. And Israel wouldn't have been destroyed. Hamas--and the Palestinians' bargaining position--is weaker today than it was in September. Israel is, too. But not in as permanent a way as Gaza (and Hamas) are being dealt.
Months ago the IDF claims that Hamas is operating out of tunnels under the hospital, they raid the hospital. A few weeks later, they raid the hospital again, and again, and again, up until this recent raid some days ago.
You claim Hamas is diminished, but how diminished can they really be if they keep popping up in the same predictable place over and over and over? In North Gaza, the place the IDF has been fighting to secure for the longest, Hamas just pops up one day in the same place they have many times before and so they have to raid the hospital again.
This is all according to Israel's own claims. If Israel's claims are true, then Hamas is one of those mystical enemies that pops up everywhere and is super strong and justifies all sorts of things to defeat, while also being weak and "diminished".
I think the truth is that Israel wants to destroy the health system in Gaza and drive the people out. Shifa hospital is basically rubble at this point.
Israel did themselves no favors by projecting a message early on that they would be able to "destroy" Hamas entirely in a very short amount of time. It was probably inevitable from the beginning that this would be a long, drawn out conflict. Hamas will continue to exist to some extent for quite some time. But the fact remains that their military capabilities are far diminished now, and continue to be futher diminished. That is the essential goal of the war.
Why didn't the IDF destroy the tunnels under the hospital the first time?
Hamas's ability to hold onto these places when they re-take them though is far diminished. Their tunnel network is in very poor shape, their weapons supply is surely being depleted, and thousands of their fighters are dead or arrested. They're going to fight to the bitter end (they're insane suicidal terrorists after all), but they are not as strong as they were when the war started. They are scattered, disorganized, and isolated.