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Comment by reissbaker | Hacker News Reader

Gary Marcus predicted that deep learning was "hitting a wall" [1]... right before ChatGPT came out. At this point he's so committed to the bit that he has to keep predicting that this time, really, it'll stall, and hoping eventually a stall comes.

1: https://nautil.us/deep-learning-is-hitting-a-wall-238440/ Also note he doubts that scaling will work past GPT-3... Not uh, 20/20 foresight exactly.

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When will the “When will the GenAI bubble burst? "bubble burst?

I've seen contrarian think pieces like this pop up on social media so much lately they pollute my feed just as much as the GenAI evangelist articles.

Maybe it just indicates a general AI buzzwords fatigue, regardless of actual progress in the field.

That's a signal that the tide IS turning. I follow some people who went all-in on AI (consultants mostly) and their tone has changed quite a bit in the last few months.

Cool new tech that was oversold in terms of what it can do for businesses. A correction is in order.

A correction is in order in the short term. We don't yet know what ChatGPT can do in the long term. In the short term, though, it can't do as much as it has been sold as being able to do.

This is a pretty inaccurate summary of the linked article.

I guess you can model Gary as a token predictor writing the most likely token based on his previous published work.

Do you have statistics on his error rate, or just examples?

I'm of the school of thought one should aim to be about 70-80% right: score above that, and the problems you're tackling aren't hard enough; score below that, and you're not good enough to help with the problems.

His Twitter feed is nonstop, more-than-daily posting that a new AI winter is just around the corner, really, this time. I haven't bothered to count every prediction but he's got at least three 9s of being wrong about this topic and refusing to update his arguments when faced with new evidence.

Fair enough then.

(I don't have a twitter account, so I couldn't learn this myself).

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