Spend about a day catching up on where the Ukraine conflict is.
Up to speed: good! You will have noted that not having domestic chip production has fucked Russia, and the restrictions on china are to inhibit pass through and limit what they too can do.
You dont give a potential advisory (china) leverage (Taiwan as the sole place chips are made).
Even if Russia could make their own chips invading Ukraine would still be a very bad idea and has completely dragged down Russian future prospects. They have isolated themselves on the world stage.
Quite a big chunk of the world is happy to deal business with Russia and they are not that isolated.
Russia is also working to remove Taliban from list of terrorist states.
These are Russia's "friends".
But isolation here also applies in political sense. There is no political support for Russia's invasion from the rest of the world. Even China has not approved the invasion.
https://www.eiu.com/n/russia-can-count-on-support-from-many-...
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/22/us/politics/russia-war-an...
Its not Russia who is isolated.
https://www.politico.eu/article/west-more-united-also-isolat...
> Russia has resorted to selling oil to North Korea because they no one else will buy it
Literally delusional:
https://energyandcleanair.org/december-2023-monthly-analysis....
Let the Indian FM explain - the second biggest buyer of Russian oil on the planet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmsQaWZPvtQ
...
While the first link in my comment is the 4th result in the related Google search, the first one is this below horsesh*t that literally falsifies what the Economist's Intelligence unit and NYT and various others now openly state:
https://www.veridica.ro/en/fake-news/fake-news-russia-is-sup...
This is how they deceive your lot and have you live in delusion.
True. But there is support to replace the unipolar with multipolar world. So no one of the big and medium players outside the first world will be too sad to see that the massive amounts of face USA and EU have put on the line in Ukraine are lost.
I'm not saying the government should just take over businesses...but if the government is going to essentially be an investor in a business, it should be at least as rigorous as a private investor would be.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39911733
Sometime I don’t understand HN. Such an informative article gets no traffic, yet people jump to a sensational article to discuss the very topic covered in details over there.
Full stop.
I said I would like a better tax policy (that would address your issue) but that doesn't change the need.
You may not like it, I am not fond of it, but we are now Rome. THE US's military might is the same as Romes, the legion (the navy being the 2nd largest Air Force on the globe says it all). You know what happened when the legion got weak? The barbarians came in and ate Rome. It wasnt fast, and it wasnt pretty.
Chips made in Taiwan is a matter of national security, or the lack thereof.
Chips made literally anywhere else, including China, are fine; China might blow up Taiwan, but Taiwan can't reciprocate and the west will not fight China.[1]
I say that as someone who likes Intel, wants to see Made in USA come back, and abhors Chinese geopolitical ambitions.
The bottom line that shall not be stated is nobody wants to deal with Taiwan and everyone is happy dealing with China.
[1]: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/intel-staves...
------
>THE US's military might is the same as Romes
The US military can't do a single thing about a bunch of misguided cavemen lobbing missiles into and stealing freighters from the neighbouring shipping lanes. For that matter, the US military hasn't won a war since WW2.
The numbers might look impressive, but in practice it's vapid. Obama even went on record that the US is retiring from policing the world.
Note: I say this as an American.
What? No one wants to deal with china. Everyone is moving their manufacturing OUT as fast as they can. China in its desperate throws to remain relevant in the face of a massive population decline is desperate (the same way Russia is in the face of their population decline)...
No one wanted to sell the tech to china to make modern chips before all the wars and saber rattling of belt and road (facing). And china lacks the will, talent and now access to catch up.
ASee the Ukraine war and Russia. To see what "no chips" looks like. modern optics on tanks are now outside what they can do, never mind glass cockpits of 4th and 5th gen fighters, never mind gps and smart mentions, never mind drones...
>> Chips made literally anywhere else, including China, are fine; China might blow up Taiwan, but Taiwan can't reciprocate and the west will not fight China.[1]
China isnt stupid, they keep pouring money into missles in the hopes of being able to do exactly what you're saying. The problem is that without sea lanes then china runs out of oil, steel and food inside 6 months. If you pay attention to recent conflicts you will note that the patriot missile system has been shooting down the best Russia has to offer. You will note that the anti missile ships off the coast of Yemen are using the same system and missles. That the brits and French are in on the game. You will note that all the intel on chinas missile force (farce) has leaked everywhere... China wont invade shit.
>>> [1]: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/intel-staves...
This is a holdover deal on the chip ban selling chips to china cause they cant make a thing. You aren't making a strong point with this.
And yet everyone keeps dealing with China, because money talks and China has lots of it.
Whether it's Intel and Nvidia exporting their latest tech to China, Apple manufacturing iPhones in China, BYD poised to crowd out the car industry (sans America), or having our cheapass blue jeans produced in the finest sweatshops, everyone wants to deal with China.
No one wants to deal with the dynamite basket that is Taiwan. Initiatives like CHIPS are so we can eventually leave Taiwan out to dry, not because we want to overcome China.
>No one wanted to sell the tech to china to make modern chips before all the wars and saber rattling of belt and road (facing).
Except everyone wanted to sell to China because the monies involved was ludicrous and that is still the case today.
>And china lacks the will, talent and now access to catch up.
China has practical implementations of 7nm process and are shipping product today from what I understand. Pedantically, China is ahead of Intel and thus the US right now. This is something the west should be terrified of, now is not the time for coping or denialism.
Let alone the implied sentiments of "Ha ha, Intel's losing big bucks! Losers!" in threads like this which are the epitome of counterproductivity if the goal really is overcoming China instead of just ridding ourselves of Taiwan.
>See the Ukraine war and Russia. To see what "no chips" looks like. modern optics on tanks are now outside what they can do, never mind glass cockpits of 4th and 5th gen fighters, never mind gps and smart mentions, never mind drones...
And yet Ukraine still hasn't won. With western high tech.
Mind you, I want Russia to lose and lose hard because I hate the idea of warmongering validated as a means of diplomacy in the 21st century, but it is what it is.
It also goes without saying you don't need high tech to kill people and destroy entire landscapes.
>China isnt stupid, they keep pouring money into missles in the hopes of being able to do exactly what you're saying.
Yes? I said China might blow up Taiwan and they most likely eventually will. China couldn't care less about TSMC or really anyone and anything that exists on that island, they just want the island and they will invade if or when the geopolitical winds blow appropriately for them.
>If you pay attention to recent conflicts you will note that the patriot missile system has been shooting down the best Russia has to offer. You will note that the anti missile ships off the coast of Yemen are using the same system and missles. That the brits and French are in on the game.
Congratulations, we've managed to do the same thing as the misguided cavemen but did so behind schedule and over budget. Truly an achievement for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Yeah no.
https://apnews.com/article/china-economy-manufacturing-pmi-8...
Chinese manufacturing has been pummeled in the last 2 years. This is on the heels of their zero covid lockdowns that were screwing things up.
Here is port throughput in decline: https://www.fitchratings.com/research/infrastructure-project...
>> Whether it's Intel and Nvidia exporting their latest tech to China,
The Chinese are buying what they cant make and these companies like to sell things
>> Apple manufacturing iPhones in China,
Apple and foxcon moving to India: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-production-of-apple-ip...
>> BYD poised to crowd out the car industry (sans America),
BYD a state backed and funded company is loosing to Tesla. https://www.ft.com/content/4f1a2188-ced0-4018-998d-5148209a5...
And BYD has some... uhhh.. quality issues: https://insideevs.com/news/712148/byd-quality-problems-hit-i...
>> or having our cheapass blue jeans produced in the finest sweatshops, everyone wants to deal with China.
Clothing production went to Vietnam over a decade ago ... and china is so bad right now that Vietnam is having a bit of a migrant crisis of its own: https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/workers-1029202011165...
>>> China has practical implementations of 7nm process and are shipping product today from what I understand.
Yes china made a 7nm chip. There has been quite an effort to figure out how they got an ASML machine to do that because they dont have the tech to build that locally. They also dont have the tech to build the lenses for it either (Zeiss holds that). So our German(Zeiss) and Dutch(asml) partners have the tech to build the chips on lock (and aren't cutting that loose). It's not like that chip got stellar reviews either... Furthermore china then went and banned most government workers (a large chunk of the population) from using iPhones at work. Even with all this the sales numbers and reviews out of china were ... mixed. It's hard to filter whats propaganda, but there are some legit complaints about the device. ... this doesn't help with cameras (chips) or band filters (5g, where the mate 20 really sucks) but these are less critical techs and easier to catch up on than something like EUV... A good primer on ASML and chip production is asianomitry on YouTube.
>> And yet Ukraine still hasn't won. With western high tech.
60 tanks and air defense isnt going to win them the war. The modern jets are coming but far too late. The long range weapons they have needed were also very late and in low quantity. If you haven't been paying attention their home grown drone program has made a mockery of the Russian navy and their long range air drones are now strking deep into Russia.
Everyone is afraid of "poking the bear" the French seem to be getting over that now. However you should be alarmed that the French are suggesting putting troops on the ground in Russia. Their nuclear policy is one that allows for them to use those weapons preemptively....
There has also be a fair bit of learning in the Ukraine war.... Drones have made 155 artillery into precision weapons with incredible impact. We also cant give the Ukrainians enough 155 to keep them in the fight, and there is some debate about who should foot the bill for building more factories to make shells. Our lack of "basics" has done as much to harm the war as limiting ranged and high tech weapons.
No one would win the fight with what the Ukrainians have been given... and we would not take the fight if that was what we had to work with.
>> Yes? I said China might blow up Taiwan and they most likely eventually will.
Their moment to do this was after Korea, or Vietnam. The problem is that they dont have the navy, missies or landing power to take the dam island from the Taiwanese.
>> China couldn't care less about TSMC or really anyone and anything that exists on that island,
China thinks that Taiwan is filled with Chinese. Some of the tawinese see themselves as Chinese. Blowing up the island would be counter to decades of their narrative that Taiwan is part of china.... China blowing up the island is about as likely as the US blowing up purto rico.
The idea that this is the goal of china is deeply misinformed.
>> Congratulations, we've managed to do the same thing as the misguided cavemen but did so behind schedule and over budget. Truly an achievement for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Right. You really need to catch up on news and geopolitics.
1. China/russia/india all spent a lot of money on hypersonic missles with the idea that they would be a game changer in taking out carrier groups and bypassing missile defense.
2. The few patriot batteries that we gave to Ukraine have shot down Russias modern hypersonic missiles. This makes 2 decades of posturing by china and Russia moot.
3. Chinas rocket force have been all over the news. Some intel agency has leaked all sort of internal info about them. Chinas rocket force are their "defense" against a us carrier group, they are the tip of the spear to invade Taiwan. You can read the news yourself but the highlights are, corrupt, and unprepared.
4. Those patriots are now on ships. Our navy has the capacity to protect a carrier group from the biggest non nuclear threat hypersonic. And these folks are getting practical training off the coast of Yemen right now. Our allies are even in on the action, the people who would be blockading china with us in the event of a war.
China is saber rattling. We did it right back to them... and showed that our sabers work and showed the world theirs dont. It's a bit of detant but its working for now.
>No one wants to deal with china
Everyone wants to deal with PRC so much that US literally had to impose sanctions and export controls to make it illegal. And then extra territorialize bans/frictions on partners who didn't want to by leaning on American origin tech %s until they had no choice.
> will, talent
PRC is minting more STEM/highskilled than OECD combined, and only actor projected to build enough talent to actually have fully indigenous semi supply chain while everyone else is projected to have shortages.
> what "no chips" looks like
Except military hardware use older harden nodes that PRC has domestic supply for, they're not running out of chips for military applications.
> patriot missile system
If you actually pay attention, you'll note patriot in UKR got penetrated by 6 shit tier kinzhals @mach3 and now multiple launchers are getting wiped from 80s hardware right after RU unfucked their primitive killchain, tier1 flight IIA/III DDGs in redsea are letting slip through enough uncoordinated old gen AShMs attacks that US can't guarantee redsea shipping. Old ghetto hardware that travels at a few maches or even subsonic, launched not in coordinated fashion, with even shittier kill chain than RU. Yet state of the art US missile defense interception isn't performant enough against these ordnances not used at scale and likely wholely inadequate for modern AShMs that travel much faster.
You'll note last round of PRC rocket force leaks are retarded, rocket fuel for hotpot? Conveniently leaked around TW election to send msg that PRC won't "invade shit". It's called motivated propaganda. Meanwhile actual Teixeira leak - the stuff US prosecutes because it's actually credibly damaging - allege US clocked PRC DF27 tests at mach 8+, and many signs point to PRC pursing global prompt strike with rocketry = no one's going to blockade PRC without their own energy infra getting blown up. Including US who goes from US to Yemen without a few hundred oil refineries and LNG plants. Or domestic semis, or data centres, or F35 factories.
TLDR western ABM performed about expected relative to threats (engaging slow targets up mach3), if anything less than idea since they're letting enough slip through that their performance has essentially validates PRC's focus on high end rocket force. You think this is US showing sabers work, but it's exposing they don't work remotely well enough against threats they were designed for, AKA, what PRC rocketry was specifically designed to defeat. Now they're thinking instead of sending salvo of 100 mach 6+ AShMs against a carrier group maybe only need to send 50. Or 300 cheaper AShMs/TLAMs. What recent conflicts has taught us is scale>wunderwaffe, lesson learned from previous wars.
Everyone is happy to sell as much as they can to whomever they can. The number of western companies fleeing the PRC says that every one is excited to keep betting on china?
See: https://www.forbes.com/sites/betsyatkins/2023/08/07/manufact...
>> PRC is minting more STEM/highskilled than OECD combined, and only actor projected to build enough talent to actually have fully indigenous semi supply chain while everyone else is projected to have shortages.
What SEMI supply chain? Where are they getting hardware for litho? Lenses? They aren't building that, they have no idea how.
SMIC is state backed, they got one run of 7nm chips to huwei for the latest phone and fizzled....
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/chinas-smic-posts-a-80percen...
As for skilled labor ... where? China stopped publishing youth employment, all those fresh grads dont have JOBS and most of their tech base is in shambles. Any one with any skill went outside the PRC for work and are kept in restricted roles for fear of them stealing everything in sight (tech wise).
>> Except military hardware use older harden nodes that PRC has domestic supply for, they're not running out of chips for military applications.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/07/a-shortage-... These are semi conductor based devices...
MEMS devices make cell phones work (filtering) https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230811PD215/5g-china-huawe...
None of this particularly new tech. The problem is that just because you have the machines and undestand how it works doesn't mean you can operationalize it. The restrictions have been impactful across the board and "catching up" is not just "doing it". These are insanely complex processes and getting them to work, and then at scale is a multi year process....
>> If you actually pay attention, you'll note patriot in UKR got penetrated by 6 shit tier kinzhal
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/09/a-russian-d...
Spotted by a drone, at the front line (to take out Russian jets) and caught with its pants down. This is not the systems failure your portraying this is an intel win for the Russians.
As for the Red Sea, Live fire exercises are important, you can train all you want but doing it and proving it are another matter. The patriot tech for this sort of interceptions has had no live tests at sea till now...
Lastly Russia has tried on several occasions to take out patriot batteries. They have missles that supposedly have the ability to directly engage them then why have they not used them?
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/air-defence-systems-rep...
> allege US clocked PRC DF27 tests at mach 8+
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_X-43
Every one tests these technologies... putting them into production is another matter...
>>> no one's going to blockade PRC without their own energy infra getting blown up. Including US who goes from US to Yemen without a few hundred oil refineries and LNG plants. Or domestic semis, or data centres, or F35 factories.
At the point that the PRC striking a US target in response to a blocked ends in a nuclear exchange... Your making the point that the PRC wont try for tawain pretty clear here with this argument as there is no outcome that doesn't end in a global catastrophe.
>> anything less than idea since they're letting enough slip through that their performance has essentially validates
Quick head count: Ukraine a massive country has enough patriots to basically defend a bit of critical infrastructure (5)... Taiwan a country of microscopic size in comparison has 14 at last count + their own home grown defense system, and the ability to fire retaliatory strikes at china (who has too massive of a cost line to deploy the same level of protection even if they had it).
>> PRC's focus on high end rocket force.
If it performs like everything else does in the PRC then they would have been better off buying bottle rockets.
>> You think this is US showing sabers work, but it's exposing they don't work remotely well enough against threats they were designed for, AKA, what PRC rocketry was specifically designed to defeat.
If Russia or china had a missile that could have taken out an active patriot battery it would have been used. Why? Because every country in the world would have bought them. The windfall for a cash strapped Russia or chines defense industry would have been huge.
TLDR: Active patriots have yet to meet a target that they cant take out. Chips, and chip manufacturing technology continues to hurt china and Russia. The decline of China has been sharp and painful for them.
Western FDI constituted negligible part of PRC domestic investment as % of GDP for years. Like low single digit percentage of total investment. It largely doesn't matter. Of course western companies they're not excited after US made it geopolitically difficult to invest in PRC, because without literally making it legally difficult to do business in PRC, companies wouldn't have China+1ed/fled. That's not PRC not being attractive, that's US forcing their companies to take the L for geopolitics, which is fair. But questionable if it hurts PRC more or US.
>SEMI supply chain
They're chaining together entirely indigenous semi industry. 12/24nm under validation from SMEE. Every component has domestic ventures to replicate. A few years out, expensive/wasteful, might run late, but will eventually get there as with all PRC industiral policy that gets the manhattan project fast track. Pretty much the only country with entire semi supply chain development on horizon and talent base to man it. Huawei increased orders for 7nm phones, eating away at Apple shares. Opposite of fizzle.
>skilled labor/youth unemployment
PRC hard tech sectors have exploded in employment and compensation. Broad unemployhment 5% which means new graduates get jobs eventually. There's new youth unemployment stats to discount students in tertiary like west, it's fine at ~20%. Even at 50% that includes youth in fulltime school, that's multiple times new talent than US. Meanwhile you have sea turtles / skilled talent from abroad going back to PRC and they're retaining more high end talent than ever due to domestic opportunities. Youth unemployment breakdown also biased towards low skilled. High skill are generally fine.
>operationalize it.
PRC's has operationalized domestic MIC for 10+ years now. This is old boring news talked endlessly by US thinktanks for years. You're imagining they're learning to crawl when they're near sprint. That's why they're recognized as the pacing peer threat. No one credible thinks PRC isn't operationalizing modern capabilities at scale.
> Spotted by a drone
This this was reference to attack last year that damaged active patriot batteries. RU haven't used them more because they don't have good ISR/fast kill chains for how mobile patriots are, can't build high end missiles fast enough unlike west/PRC. So not worth commitiment. They have hardware, but limited, theres like 100 Kinzhals total and they used 20?. TLDR is they lack capability to coordinate strikes. PRC tests more high end missiles a year than RU can produce. This looks extra bad for patriots because even RU, as incompetent as they are at ISR still managed to penetrate patriot when they dedicated some highend (really medium end) hardware to the task.
> Live tests
USS Mason shot down shit tier Yemen cruise missiles (like old PRC 80s tech) in 2016, shooting down similar missiles and drones doesn't bring new learning except from PLA sigint in region gathering data on US weapon systems since they weren't in Djibouti at the time. Really shotting down primitive single digit clusters of cruise missiles is not even a useful live stress test.
>NASA_X-43
Many reports on PLA rocketforce expansion, they're making them at scale, hitting moving targets at sea. Leaks verify speed/performance. Putting up 100s of ISR for kill chain. What hasn't been verfied is US building capabilites to defend mach 5+ threats, especially at scale.
>US target in response to a blocked ends in a nuclear exchange
At the point US tries to blockade PRC ends in a nuclear exchange. See how that works. Point is PRC already deters US from even attempting blockade by making CONUS as vunerable as PRC is to SLOC blockades. SLOC blockade math works on rationale that US can enforce unilateral/existential damage to PRC without damage to herself. Now US can't without basically being in same energy deprived state as PRC. Hence US likely won't. Only real deterrence catchup is nuclear parity.
>Quick head
Quick headcount, PRC has magnitude more missile inventory and missile defense relative to RU:UKR, focused on island 16x smaller with even less perimeter to preposition defenses. The geography and math here isn't difficult, PRC can trivially overwhelm launchers TW has, assuming they even work when sensors are gone in first strike - PRC can hit anywhere in TW in 7 minutes.
> like everything else does
I mean they can land on mars first go, so I think it'll land on a carrier fine.
>windfall
PRC doesn't export high end, and RU not in position to export in middle of war with their limited industrial base.
TLDR patriots and SM2 working as intended, with expected limitations. Which is to say overwhelmable by power that can coordinate more than a handful of high performance missiles at a time. Which is actually pretty high ask but certainly includes PRC. PRC semi doing fine, catching up faster than anticipated, remember how they were suppose to be capped at 28nm. Meanwhile, they're still climbing up on the supply chain ladder, displacing more and more high tech from west, growing in S&T/innovation indexes. They crippled their R/E with 3RL and soft tech on purpose and still chugging along. Eitherway this is departing from the Original topic, so I'm going to hang hat here.
Foxconn leaving at apples behest (and the Foxconn owner getting vocal with the prc in a rare move). The banking exoudus from Hong Kong (now deep into its 2nd year). And the impact to the GDP... its a literal house of cards with the failure of ever grand with country garden hot on its heels...
Meanwhile the retail apocalypse has hit china. High end luxury brands. Out. Grocery chains, shutting down.
Finally the iron bowl, the local government workers are getting pay cut. (because land sales are a shitty source of funding)...
Post pandemic there was going to be a realignment of global supply chains to be multi source and closer to home. Chinas covid zero policy just accelerated a decisions already made.
>> Every component has domestic ventures to replicate.
These have been facing up for decades. Without EUV they have no path forward. There is no EUV without Zeiss and ASML. Meanwhile unless your TSMC with their knowledge your going to have dismal yeilds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQGnwKBxAKk Probably one of the best high level insights into tech mfg in Asia.
>>PRC hard tech sectors have exploded in employment and compensation. Broad unemployhment 5% which means new graduates get jobs eventually. There's new youth unemployment stats to discount students in tertiary like west, it's fine at ~20%.
Youth?
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-stop-releasing-you...
Tech sector:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58381538
https://www.thinkchina.sg/big-tech-changing-china-and-so-are...
The decline of Chinese tech from stem to stern has been in process since 2000. Again the pandemic was a blast of orders for them but it was the last one.
> Meanwhile you have sea turtles / skilled talent from abroad going back to PRC
This has always been the case, they go home with any trade secrets that aren't bolted to the floor. https://www.smics.com/en/site/news_read/4334 << there's SMIC stealing its "progress" from TSMC.
> PRC's has operationalized domestic MIC for 10+ years now.
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230811PD215/5g-china-huawe...
This is tech that was hardly new and sexy when the first iPhone came out, china JUST joined this party. This isnt pzrticlulary hard silicon issue but it is process intensive... Again, based on how they did it likely stolen IP.
>> This this was reference to attack last year that damaged active patriot batteries. RU haven't used them more because they don't have good ISR/fast kill chains for how mobile patriots are
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/17/patriot-missile-sys...
The damage was minor enough to be repaired locally, the battery was not rendered inactive by this attack (read they did not destroy it). Per later reports the damage was not from one of the missles fired at it rather it was from an Iranian drone shot down in a separate intercept (oops). The reason that Russia does not have good intel on the patriots is NOT their mobility, it's their reliance on human intel (never change Russia).
Do not that even AlJazer wont call the Russian attacks "effective" and hints at US shoot downs (that no one is gonna confirm publicly, because its bad politics).
PS: This guy, locked up cause his missles dont work as promised, not because of china sale of info. https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-hypersonic-scientist-a...
>>> Really shotting down primitive single digit clusters of cruise missiles is not even a useful live stress test.
No one has seen the new block of Patriot missiles, ship board, be effective... https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/10/25/u-s-deploys-addition...
SO yes seeing them work in this context regardless of target size is saying 'look we did and we can'.
>>> Many reports on PLA rocketforce expansion...
https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/online-analysis/2023...
This is the only credible source for their expansion into this territory... And again most of the leadership is gone, and did they or didn't they have to buy missile tech from the Russians. Meanwhile the bigger threat is in theater ICBM's with MREV's ... https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a34702702/...
We have a lot of carriers, and have managed to keep pouring money into tech that will keep them safe (as they are large, slow, expensive targets).
> ends in a nuclear exchange
China invades tawian, china gets the blockade. People starve or china does something dumb that ends in nukes. It's a zero sum game for them and they know it. Same bluster from them since Nixon...
>> PRC has magnitude more missile inventory and missile defense
To be clear: the US navy (just the navy) has more Tomahawk's than all of the theater (medium and larger) missiles of the rocket force. Chinas combine anti missile systems (unproven) are enough to stop an attack from Taiwan (who has about half the missles of chinas rocket force). At a 50% shoot down rate, the rocket force would have to commit a significant amount of its inventory to overwhelm that defense. Thats a very precarious position to put yourself in if you expect the US to respond....
>> PRC semi doing fine, catching up faster than anticipated, remember how they were suppose to be capped at 28nm.
Nothing of the sort, see above, see the current state of china semi... They have had DUV for a long time (5 ish years from asml). They used it for 14nm, to get 7nm and can get down to 5nm.... Can isnt volume, can isnt yeild.
>> Meanwhile, they're still climbing up on the supply chain ladder, displacing more and more high tech from west, growing in S&T/innovation indexes.
The only people making this claim are china state propaganda. This is right out of the little pinks hand book. There is over a decade of court cases (both civil and criminal) for theft of intellectual property... Copying by theft isnt innovation. Meanwhile they can barely make the filters for 5g (see above, mems, 20 year old tech at this point, brand new in china). That isnt catching up, that's isnt even keeping pace... it's throwing money and espionage at a problem. China cant make camera lenses, they cant clone DU, how are they going to get to EUV (all for litho for chips).
RE impact is 2-3%, which is what you get when RE demand gets crushed from 15T to 12T in a 100T (RMB) economy. That's it, the sum of PRC RE house of card "collapse" inefficiency is 3%, aka how PRC growth goes from wreckless 8% to fine/good 5%. PRC luxury spending up 12% last year vs 7% for US. Grocery chains are fine, some Carrefour leaving, but as if PRC relies on western grocery chains. Disposable income up 6% nominal, while inflation negligible. Supply chain was reorienting to PRC+1 pre covid, meanwhile PRC during covid exports increased 1T in 3 years, more than previous 10 years combined. Held on to most of gains / wasn't hit as hard by export decline vs others in last few years. Q1 exports up, PMI positive. It's fine. Closer to home supplies chains, i.e. Mexico has large % of transtripped PRC exports to evade tarrifs.
>decades
No really, big fund semi push only in last 10 years, build uncoordinated base, but lots of players for entire chain. 7nm yields are fine according to forensics extrapolating from quality of production. Production only one component of price, PRC not paying IP fees for domestic chips to west/US = it's economical to produce domestically even with lower yield. EUV/SSMB 5-10 years away. Questionable if <5nm has any major benefits vs PRC brute force computing and making up operation costs on the power end with massive renewable rollouts.
>youth, tech
You need to follow space more closely if you don't know about new youth unemployment data. Ditto with tech sector, especially hard tech hiring and compensation.
>tech decline
Every S&T, R&D, innovation index/ranking and reality of PRC moving up supply chain in just about every sector in last 10 years contradicts this. PRC went from like 10m STEM in 2000s/ high skill talent to 40m matching US, most in the last 10 years, and that's translating to PRC moving up tech in every sector, not just software which they deliberately slapped so people moved to more strategic sectors. Next 20 years they're adding another 40m+ STEM/high skill to workforce. There's a reason ppl freaking out about PRC EVs, green energy, mature chips - because PRC is encroaching on all the encumbant high tech previously dominated by west, and that's just PRC fucking around for a few years after spamming STEM in from academic reforms ~15 years ago.
>always been the case
PRC talent from west have never returned back to PRC on this scale before. Amount of PRC talent retention and inability for west to brain drain due to domestic opportunities have never been this high.
>stolen IP
Who cares? It's MIC, and huawei leads in 5g / telco which is what it focuses on. Working on filters was contingency post sanctions and they did it in a few years. It's a good example of how fast PRC catches in critical sectors it wants to - timeline for sanctions against PRC is more limited than most hoped - they indigenize fast. This is like people wanking about PRC finally making ballpoint pen tip (which US also can't make), when that was cover for LKQ bemoaning state didn't focus enough on precision manufacturing for advanced munitions. A year later state developed that capability.
>AJ/patriots
Quoting US officials, as if that's AJ position. It's he said she said, of course Kirby wants to play down damage, because in your words, admitting is patriots can get overwhelmed by mach3 duct taped RU missiles is "bad politics". Mobility and ISR goes hand in hand, the point of mobility is to be faster than opponent ISR, to pack up before they can plan mission. Hence RU intel failure + patriot mobility is linked. When RU ISR picked up, patriots started getting hit, of course in transit, pants down because ISR tells you thats best time to strike.
>locked up
You should look up all the CSR reports and think tank analysts who track PRC missile developments. Or former Pac fleet deputy chief Fanell who confirmed tandem PRC hypersonics struck moving ships at sea - they work fine. Like this isn't hard technology for country that has space program.
>we did we can
We already kenw that. Carney used boring old SM2, same as Mason in 2016. We already know SM2 can hit shit tier cruise missiles. Intercepting TLAMs and slower ballistics is not new. What we learned is it's not enough to deter Houthis whose still hitting ships despite USN protection. This isn't patriot test - Lockheed pitched to navy, but not integrated - no one's seen them because they don't exist. Deploying more THAAD/Patriot in MENA is not because they're peak, it's just what US have. BTW same system got overwhelmed by Houthis when they hit Saudi refineries, but we'll just blame Saudi operators because that's convenient.
>rocketforce leadership gone
For corruption, which in PRC =/= RU. Their corruption is graft of contracts not replacing rocket fuel with water or selling tires. The former requires a signiture and gets you a few years in jail, the latter bullet to the head, and for 1/100 the money. If anything PRC corruption is associated with overcapacity, grafting building more hardware. PRC has grown way past RU tech in everything except maybe sub quieting, but anything electronic/higher tech they're better, see PRC modernized flankers. Look up latest airforce university report on rate of PLA rocket force modernization.
>ICMB/MIRV
IMO Glide vehicles that defeats interceptors is more dangerous to carriers, and direction US missile defense/advanced interceptor programs are targetting. MIRVs is fine, but mostly for nukes. Conventional strikes against navy targets going to be just saturating limited local defense / magazine depth. US pours a lot into ship defense, but no indication they work against high end missile threats right now. We're up to FTM48 which hit a couple short range ballistics, but still controlled conditions, no countermeasures etc. Ultimately it doesn't matter how much US spends, amount of VLS cells in a fleet is known/finte and can be weaponeered around to saturate.
>China gets the blockade
China runs the blockade, dares US to do something, with next run on escalation ladder hitting US critical infra. US loses all oil refining capabilities and downstream inputs like fertilizer. US starves by doing somethign stupid like trying to blockade PRC. It's a zero sum game for everyone. Diffrence is PRC actually fought with every NPT nuclear state over issues less important than TW. Including US in Korea when PRC wasn't nuclear power herself. I mean if that's bluster... PRC knows US won't eat nukes for TW... and US won't risk losing her own energy supplies and not eat for TW. Hence blockade won't likely happen because US interest caluclus less suicidal vs adversaries who can strike CONUS at scale. This isn't 2010s when that argument had merit.
>navy has more Tomahawk
No USN has more coutnable VLS, people think US Navy has more Tomahawks, which btw is close to nothing even if 11k VLS cells were loaded for that mission. PRC can produce that in 11 days. 20 days and they have enough to overwhelm entire US security architecture in 1st island chain, most of which will be in range (nearly all of SKR/JP/most of PH from mainland). Ultimately 11k doesn't buy you very far when estimates for just taking out SCS island bases (missile sponges) run into 500+ for just temperoary degrading runways, let alone mainland targets. The fundmental inbalance in theatre is PRC makes more stuff, can hit more stuff, has more stuff to hit and therefore more difficult to proportionally degrade, even if you throw entire USN + get agile basing in region. Ultimately we don't know what we don't know, but we know relative to industrial output, USN can't throw enough at the problem. Like it took 5 carriers + good regional basing 3 weeks to degrade Iraq, scale that up to PRC and that's a 5 year campaign assuming nothing PRC makes work. But if they work advertised (not hard), then 11 carrier groups and 11k VLS cells is defeatable.
Also PRC does their own FTMs, they intercept cruise missiles (easy, known party trick) and balistics themselves. Reality is no one knows PRC missile stocks, because unlike ship/planes they can't be easily counted via imagery. All we know is they just showed an automated factory that can make 1k cruise/TLAM components A DAY. It's trivially easy for PRC to stockpile enough that interception is meaningless due to saturation. And for all we know, they have, because munitions factories aren't sitting idle. Having a 100k cruise missiles lying around is trivial cost. They don't even have to be advanced at that point since quantity > quality of interception. The reality is we don't know how much actual missiles PRC has, only they can make alot, and even most competent western analysts down to estimating launchers/TELs, but that's like counting guns without knowing how man bullets. Rocketforce also barely has to invest any stockpile to TW, airforce and army MLRS has most of the TW distance fires covered. And really it's matter of satuating patriots, again magazine size known quantity, and mop up uncontested.
>can isn't volume
See huawei increasing handset production to the point of eating at Apple share. Techinsights breakdown of SMIC N+2 that suggests decent yield. Now HW also planning to hammer their own AI cards. That's sufficient volume short medium term on ASML. Once they have their own twinscan DUV equivalents they'll hammer 7nm at scale even. Litho 1/3 of production cost when doesn't accoutn for other cost (licensing) etc that PRC will save on by just not using western products. When Nvidia is selling AI chips for 400% markup, there's plenty of room to be profitable at lower yield.
>china state propaganda.
I mean these are western reports on PRC export composition. Trade data/flows has to balance, they know what's coming out of PRC since... it's going into their borders. Steal IP and innovate where they lead isn't mutually exclusive. And per your filters / MEMs example, PRC fine buying from west, but when it sees strategic need to indigenize, they do it in record time. If you don't think PRC can make camera lenses then you haven't kept up. Lots of buzz in photography circles last few years of PRC lenses catching up to Japanese. That's just commercial sector end spamming for commodity. As for EUV, see SSMB. They don't need to match EUV when they can just jump it. EUV is great and all but it's also failure in sense it was suppose to be cheaper tech that ended up as 200m machines due to development difficulties. You're pretending it's blackmagic when it's an engineering problem like every other. One that's IMO much more manage than something like turbojets, commercializng EUV took ASML had ~10k employees, Zeiss SMT had ~3k, Cymer had ~1k, who worked without strategic urgency for 20 years. It's really a modest effort vs Manhattan or even Boeing/Lockheed/Airbus at 100-150k employees for aviation. It's a problem that PRC can throw people at money at and do in ~10 years, as hinted by ASML CEO himself. So trend so far is western experts overestimate.
E: Last post to not bother Dan. You can have last word.
When investors buy shares, they are in effect giving money to the company. It might be indirect if they purchase from some other holder of the share, but ultimately those shares were issued by the company and the initial purchasers gave the company that money.
Investors do this because they want a return. Either dividends or price growth or both. If there's no prospects for growth they will pull out their money and this will seriously hurt Intel, creating a downward spiral.
The US Government is subsidizing Intel because they don't want it to die. An Intel that has crushed its investors will end up on permanent subsidy life support because nobody will trust it with their money again. An Intel that uses some of those subsidies to keep investors on-side will retain their trust, and give it a pathway off government support and back onto raising funds from the markets.
So whilst this sort of thing makes the left very unhappy (often because they don't think of themselves as holding equities even when they do via pensions/insurance funds), it does make sense over the long run. Investors aren't an ATM that can just be raided at will. They're a coalition that can break.
If building and running the fab in Arizona versus Ireland is going to cost intel $8b more, the options are do nothing and don’t get the fab, or pay the difference. Even if they are doing stock buybacks it doesn’t mean you can force intel’s shareholders to take a $8b loss without compensation - that’s a clear takings clause violation.
You must have caught up on the Ukraine conflict from the places that have been claiming that the next Wunderwaffe (TM) will surely change the war for 2 years now. Russia is perfectly able to feed its own domestic daily demand on chips and everything else, not only Chinese but even European products are entering Russia through intermediaries still, and their economy doubled its growth. The smoke screen that the corporate media creates on this conflict is much bigger than the one they created on the Iraq war.