Electric Cars Pass the Tipping Point to Mass Adoption in 31 Countries
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
> what’s become a pivotal EV tipping point: when 5% of new car sales are purely electric
5% of new car sales being EVs doesn't mean much. There will be more traction for charging infrastructure and such, but that doesn't mean that more consumers will be interested in EVs, or that economic downturn won't result in people resorting to second-hand cars which are probably going to be ICEs.
I'm not convinced by the arguments:
> New technologies — from televisions to smartwatches — follow an S-shaped adoption curve
> “Once enough sales occur, you kind of have a virtuous cycle,” said Corey Cantor, an EV analyst at BloombergNEF. “More EVs popping up means more people seeing them as mainstream, automakers more willing to invest in the market, and the charging infrastructure expanding on a good trajectory.”
Especially with a product that is already seen as political by some, and has clear drawbacks that make it unviable for many types of users.
Clear drawbacks? Absolutely, but that goes for many technologies that follow an S curve (logistics curve)
Cell phones was bulky and expensive to start with and until surprisingly recently the audio quality was awful.
I’m not entirely convinced of the “second-hand car” factor if there’s a downturn. There’s only so many second hand cars. Eventually they break down to the point that it’s not worth maintaining to maintain them. Having cars at all means there needs to be a stream of new cars coming into the market.
The economic factor could easily go in favour of EVs very soon. A small electric car built from the ground up to be as cheap as possible could soon compete with ICE on purchase price. Like a Tesla Model 2 with 48V architecture and LFP batteries, and similar models from other car makers. The main reason we haven’t seen these models yet is that there isn’t enough battery manufacturing capacity in the world to satisfy the demand such a model would generate. But the shovel is in the ground for these factories right now. If you look at the list of battery factories being built for the automotive sector it’s insane. “Gigafactory” was a mind-blowing concept when Tesla first built their GWh scale battery factory just a few years ago. Now there’s countless GWh-scale factories being planned and built all over the world.
It looks like they would indeed be quite economical there. Norway has high gasoline prices and low electricity prices.
Electricity costs per kilometer for an EV charged at ordinary consumer rates look like they would be about 1/6th the gasoline cost per kilometer for an ICE car that gets about 40 miles per gallon or about 17 kilometer per liter.
Interestingly the running cost was what swayed my sister. She was highly susceptible to all the political stuff you mention - she will swallow anything the right has to say about covid, immigration etc but you can’t argue with the fuel savings on an EV.
I’ve owned several EVs over the past 5 years and I’ve only ever had to add windshield washer fluid and replace the tires. I’m a fairly right-leaning guy for whatever that counts for, but the time savings and convenience are undeniable.
Considering we're talking about car sales, this isn't about people switching from an EV to an ICE, but people needing to change cars and choosing cheeper second hand ICEs instead of brand new more expensive EVs.
Why is this the only option? There are second hand EVs too.
Key quote: "When we first completed this analysis in 2022, only 19 countries had passed the 5% tipping point. Last year, that number soared as EVs spread across four continents. For the first time, some of the fastest-growing markets were found in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. The trajectory laid out by countries that came before them shows how EVs can surge from 5% to 25% of new cars in under four years."
So they are looking at new car sales. A lot of people in Eastern Europe do not afford a new car, let alone an electric one.
Rare earths are less of a requirement than they were 5 years ago and the trend should keep that way.