re p(doom): the latest slatestarcodex[0] has a great little blurb about the difficulties of applying bayes to hard problems because there's too many different underlying priors which perturb the final number, so you end up fudging it until it matches your intuition.
[0] https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-r...
Edit: I can't quite put this into a coherent form, but this vibes with Gell-Mann amnesia, with the way LLMs are dismissed, and with how G W Bush was seen (in the UK at least).
Ironically, a similar (though not identical) point about Bayes was made by one of the characters in HPMOR…
[0] Also the whole bit of HPMOR in Azkaban grated on me for some reason, and I also think Yudkowsky re-designed Dementors due to wildly failing to understand how depression works; however I'm now getting wildly side-tracked…
Oh, and in case you were wondering, my long-term habit of footnotes is somewhat inspired by a different fantasy author, one who put the "anthro" into "anthropomorphic personification of death". I miss Pratchett.
In case you still don't believe me, you are welcome to hop onto your favorite fan fiction site, such as AO3 [0], and search for stories over [large k] words.
[0] https://archiveofourown.org/works/search?work_search%5Bquery...
Also, I didn't say "correlated with intelligence", what I said was more of a cut-off threshold — asserting that one cannot be an actual moron given writing coherently on that scale is more of a boolean than a correlation.
I do need to write more (my own attempt at a novel has been stalled at "why can't I ever be satisfied with how I lead into the dramatic showdown!" for some years now, as none of my attempts have pleased me once written); but as for reading? Well, if you think my taste must result from insufficient breadth and depth, I must wonder what you think of Arthur C. Clarke, Francis Bacon, Larry Niven, Alexandre Dumas, Adrian Tchaikovsky, Neal Stephenson, Robert Heinlein, Alastair Reynolds, Isaac Asimov, Carl Jung, … I'm going to stop there rather than enumerate my whole library, but I can critique each in a different way without resorting to calling them playground insults, even the ones I dislike.
But I will say it was interesting to contrast Chris Hadfield's "An Astronaut's Guide to Life on Earth" with Richard Wiseman's "Shoot for the Moon" — or H. G. Wells with Jules Verne.
If we ignore that it's a rewriting of JKR's 7 novel series, which gives it a certain amount of coherency, Yudkowsky violates almost every writing guideline in a bad way. In fact, I could probably write an infinitely long coherent essay describing the ways HPMOR violates a reader's mind. It would be easy given almost 700K source material.
But to point at some gaping holes, the plot has no pacing, and the entire story is a badly written self insert where the mc goes around and "fixes" JKR's plot-holes by writing themself into a corner.
The solution to this, is, of course, to write another 20K words of expecto patronum, dispel the plothole with more rationalist bullshit.
Your average fanfic is probably better written.
I infer you favour Blaise Pascal: "I'm sorry I wrote you such a long letter; I didn't have time to write a short one."
his writing may be a little cringe at times and not anywhere near the prestige of "real writers" but it's perfectly entertaining for his intended audience