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Comment by mike_hearn | Hacker News Reader

Most countries implemented policies they called "lockdowns" so whatever personal definition you're using isn't very helpful. Certainly, being able to go outside was seen as a regrettable bug and not a feature in many places. For example, the UK police notoriously used drones to find couples sitting on park benches. Where I live I was forbidden from leaving my apartment for a couple of weeks when my wife got COVID, for any reason except purchasing groceries. So that was definitely a China-style lockdown.

> If we ever see mortality rates in the double digits, expect real lockdowns.

We'll see them because our ruling classes are psychologically and politically unable to push back on corrupt academics, not because they work. Lockdowns had no effect on COVID because respiratory viruses are able to spread long distances on air currents, but lockdown policy assumes they can't.

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> Where I live I was forbidden from leaving my apartment for a couple of weeks when my wife got COVID

So, you were told to self isolate because you were in a household with a sick individual. Wouldn't that be the prudent thing to do anyway?

Also, what does 'forbidden' means? What would have happened if you went out anyway?

> Lockdowns had no effect on COVID because respiratory viruses are able to spread long distances on air currents

Citation needed. Also, the viral load at 'long distances' is unlikely to be problematic.

> So, you were told to self isolate because you were in a household with a sick individual. Wouldn't that be the prudent thing to do anyway?

That'd very much depend on what the reason to leave the house was, wouldn't it? I never got sick anyway so must have been immune to that variant.

> Also, what does 'forbidden' means? What would have happened if you went out anyway?

I think there were fines. I forget exactly, it was a few years ago now. I'm not sure how it was policed.

> Citation needed. Also, the viral load at 'long distances' is unlikely to be problematic.

Go look at any regression analysis of lockdown/masking severity vs outcomes, there are plenty out there. Or study what happened on the Diamond Princess way back in Feb/March 2020. The data from that semi-controlled experiment is only compatible with long distance transmission on air currents. Or look at how SARS-1 was able to spread between buildings, and apartments within the buildings. They were able to show it was spreading through ducts within the buildings and then on wind currents between buildings.

Or if you want a more direct approach, look at the old graphs of case numbers for a country you aren't familiar with and try to work out when mask mandates or lockdowns were implemented or relaxed. I've tried, it can't be done. If these policies worked you'd see clear impact because clear impact is the definition of worked. No impact can be seen, as you'd expect from gas-cloud type spread.

> Most countries implemented policies they called "lockdowns" so whatever personal definition you're using isn't very helpful.

That doesn't make much sense. Just because some country called their measures "lockdown" doesn't make the situation comparable to another country with different measures who called theirs "lockdown" as well. I suggest doing a duck-test ("if it walks like a duck, ...").

> Where I live I was forbidden from leaving my apartment for a couple of weeks when my wife got COVID, for any reason except purchasing groceries. So that was definitely a China-style lockdown.

That doesn't require a lockdown. Technically even the status of your wife and yours was different at the time. Your wife was in medical isolation and you were quarantined (at least it sounds like you were not testing positive at the time which makes all the difference here).

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