Is Overleaf (online LaTeX editor) making $40M+ ARR and a unicorn? | Hacker News Reader

Is Overleaf (online LaTeX editor) making $40M+ ARR and a unicorn?

3 pointssumly12 comments

Overleaf has 11m users, if we take an assumption that 2% of its users are paid users paying $200 / year then it translates to $40m+ ARR

this is likely to be conservative, and very easy to see the ARR being above $50m+ with double digit growth.

hence, Overleaf seems to be a GOAT startup. Highly profitable, likely valued $1bn+

what am i missing?

View on HN

I doubt there will ever be enough Latex users for Overleaf to become a billion dollar company.

I believe that chasing billions, is a big reason why a lot of niche tech startups die, but Overleaf has the potential to be a very successful small to medium size business.

$1bn valuation = 20x multiple?

hence you need $50m ARR so you need 250k paid users at $200 / year

thats 12.5m users at 2% conversion

Your assumption is resting on your guess of 2%. I say it's high. If it's .01% instead, the math looks a bit more grim.

My experience in conversion from FREE to PAID is 2% is pretty standard. 5% is very good. <1% is meh.

you've not provided any reasoning on why Overleaf should not be in the "meh" category of converting users though.

I did not say it was def not a MEH category

I created this thread to find likeminded people to give insights

What's your experience in converting to paid? Grad students aren't known for being the most wealthy set of people.

The market is limited. Very few people use LaTeX.

there are 11m users.

there are about double the number of Overleaf users than the Irish population. It's def not small!

And that's about it. How much do you expect them to grow? They have probably a respectable chunk of the LaTeX population already among their users.

How do you expect LaTeX editing to get to a level where there is any chance to get to a billion dollars?

I'm not saying Overleaf is a bad business. I'm saying it's not a unicorn.

Their growth is becoming explosive, growing 1m+ users per year, 10%+ YoY is pretty good at that scale

Maybe you are not aware but LaTeX is a proxy on research. Are you bearish research? I am not.

long LaTeX. Long Overleaf.

ps: they also give exposure to crypto as many needs LaTeX editor!

---------------------------------------- 2012: Overleaf is founded

2021: 9m users

2022: 10m users

2023: 11m+ users

source: https://www.overleaf.com/blog/wow-ten-million-users

> LaTeX is a proxy on research.

In Mathematics and CS, absolutely, but biology and medicine are on Microsoft Word.

> Are you bearish research? I am not.

You're not? Between the shrinking middle class, the rising costs of a college education, and then also everyone losing their job to AI, the future doesn't look bright for research. There's a political battle on the horizon that will determine if science and research is something we as a society do actually care about.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com