We have weather satellites observing everything from above though. Combined with the ground based sensors we have a pretty decent clue.
It's been proven for decades, the big problem with weather simulation is that the dynamics are chaotic. They continue to be, even as we collect more data from the surface and above. Our forecasts improve, slowly (by a day per decade or so, historically), but simulation cannot be accurate and precise in the same sense.
A good introduction is "Weather Prediction: What everyone needs to know"