The sankey diagrams here are interesting, and a trend I haven't experienced, but have seen mentioned on /r/cscareerquestions quite frequently. As a Cal grad, cold applications have always worked for me, but it seems OP and newer grads are having a tougher time. I'm curious if Cal/top university grads are getting the recycling bin from cold applications as well (I also have 15+ yoe now, but it's never been an issue).

Also for new grads, the best advice I can give you: join a fortune 500 company. Startups are extremely cut throat and volatile, esp. in this environment where everything is under scrutiny, interest rates are high, etc. If you can get into a FAANG, Pintrest, xyz and climb the ladder, it's likely better than being taken advantage of at a startup - which I've seen more often times than not.