Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

So nothing conclusive, but if we had conclusive metrics to point to that could indicate an economic bust is coming, we would be able to implement policies to prevent them.

I don't know if that's even well-defined based on the evidence presented - "a massive stock market boom".

The (USA) economy is doing OK, especially when compared to other countries that have made other policy choices and are faring even worse. But "stock market go up" is not the same thing at all as "most people doing better".

"High house prices" is also not a unambiguously wonderful thing. e.g. if you need to buy a house.

Likewise Low Unemployment is not great if all the jobs are no-benefits gig work and you need three of them to pay off your massive student or medical debt.

Lack of good consumer sentiment indicates this gap.

And this oversimplifying to the point of meaninglessness is why I'm sceptical of the article's point.

Even if history repeats in cycles for some astrological reason, why would it repeat in a 100 years cycle? Why not a 67 years cycle?

While there are certainly problems here, higher interest rates drive demand down and lower prices, while lower interest rates drive up demand and raise prices.

Investors tend to look for the best return on investment, the number I often see given is 5%/year. The rent I collect is close to that fraction of the market value of the apartment I own in the UK.

The choice between "rent" and "mortgage" is where the cost of the two is about equal in the first year, which is always a bit unfair on first-time purchasers as (1) they're generally younger and thus earning less money, and (2) the impact of interest payments is always front-loaded towards the beginning of the repayment period.

This in turn means that there's a temptation for very long repayment periods to make it seem easier: in a world of genuinely 0% interest mortgages, paying off a ¤600k over 40 years is clearly easier than paying it off over 20, and lower rates asymptotically approach this.

Conversely, when the interest rate is high enough that (even without paying off the capital and regardless of repayment period) it approximates the rental market rate of the property, this drives down demand. To see why, go back to that previous example of a ¤600k (sale price) property: if the landlord can ask for ¤2.5k/month rent, and the interest rate on a mortgage is 5% AER, then the cost to service the interest without paying capital is the same as you get from the rent — which means investors will ask "why should I buy this?" and renters will ask "why would I want that kind of mortgage?", forcing down the asking prices because the only people still interested are people who can do it without borrowing any money.

Previous generation is what, Gen X? Millenials? Yeah gee they had it so easy. Stop with the "generation blaming" stuff and blaming voodoo on them. Blame the people you vote for and who they kowtow to, nothing will ever change with petty envy and sour grapes for your neighbor down the street, etc.

If the Biden admin wants to win the election, they will have to deal with the fact that foreign workers are pushing out perhaps lazier American workers who are also unwilling to work for devalued wages caused by inflation. Foreign workers are used to inflation and whatever we have is better than what they have at home. The Admin will have to deal with that tension -else they will have more traditional core supporters hold their noses and vote for the other guy once again.

I'm quite certain if we had a Ross Perot running as a third party candidate, he or she would win. Biden is decrepit and can't decide if he's for American workers or foreign workers more. Trump shoots from the hip too much and is too thin skinned and impulsive.