There is an arms war here between Bing and Google - we can thank Microsoft for pressuring Google into making this happen sooner than they otherwise would have.
There is an arms war here between Bing and Google - we can thank Microsoft for pressuring Google into making this happen sooner than they otherwise would have.
Of course I could be wrong, but I think there's a good chance that a lot of "Good Old AI" stuff is still valid, but that it was just too early for it then. Maybe it still is, time will tell.
Elon Musk and the electric car industry is one example.
Actually, electric cars were popular before gas cars were.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicle...
But I think your argument falls down, when we inspect the merit of the world "popular".
Electric cars, have never been mainstream.
(1) If new theories of AI proved to be commercially viable, you would expect that people would continue to develop new theories in the pursuit of money and fame, not "abandon" them because the results are "good enough."
(2) There are still lots of smart people working on AI in academia today that were around in the 80s. (And the 70s. And the 60s.) They remain keenly aware of the breakthroughs that occurred then, because they were the ones making them. And they're familiar with the technology of today, because they're using it in their new research. So if any big rocks were left unturned prematurely, I'm sure they're being examined.
Still no idea if that's true of AI, but I found a couple of interesting cites:
Patrick Winston, director of MIT's Artificial Intelligence Laboratory from 1972 to 1997, echoed Minsky. "Many people would protest the view that there's been no progress, but I don't think anyone would protest that there could have been more progress in the past 20 years. What went wrong went wrong in the '80s."
Winston blamed the stagnation in part on the decline in funding after the end of the Cold War and on early attempts to commercialize AI. But the biggest culprit, he said, was the "mechanistic balkanization" of the field, with research focusing on ever-narrower specialties such as neural networks or genetic algorithms. "When you dedicate your conferences to mechanisms, there's a tendency to not work on fundamental problems, but rather [just] those problems that the mechanisms can deal with," said Winston.
http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/37525/
They don't go into detail about how the early attempts to commercialize contributed to the problem. This site does, but seems less trustworthy:
In the early 1980s, dark clouds also settled over the MIT Artificial Intelligence Lab as it split into factions by initial attempts to commercialize Artificial Intelligence (AI). In fact, some of MIT's best White Hats left the AI Lab for high-paying jobs at start-up companies.
http://computer.yourdictionary.com/golden-age-era
So it sounds like some smart people in academia in the 80s think that some stones were left unturned, or turned too slowly, and that part of the problem was a refocus on making money on existing discoveries. According to that AI winter link, the tech mostly wasn't ready for primetime yet, presumably making it even harder to raise funds for new research.
Why? Because they are selling it without mentioning why they won't fail where every other attempt has. There are huge difficulties in this. Have they turned a corner on the research that changes something? I don't see it in what they've so hinted at so far.
http://bergie.iki.fi/blog/google-s_rich_snippets_will_lead_u...
First, they are Google, and therefore possess huge quantities of data and the ability, courtesy of their uber map reduce prowess and ultra-fast custom hardware, to make sense of it.
Second, they bought Metaweb (makers of Freebase) and with it some of the best semantic expertise out there. Toby Segaran is a brilliant dude. His O'Reilly book "Programming the Semantic Web" explains in 20 pages what most books take 150 pages to do: the concept of a URI based graph database and how it enables data to be merged from multiple sources and reasoned over with applications.
I only hope Google open-sources some of their research here for the rest of us.
But also, have you read any of the papers involved? Datalog is pretty simple. It's a restricted, forward chaining prolog. Once you know that, you can recreate most of it from that description alone.
I thought that while flawed cpedia (from one of the cuil founders) was a much more interesting push on this idea then Googles one currently is.
There is a bunch of data that google can use[1] because it is made explicitly available. But many sources don't want that.
As an example, consider "book me flights for the cheapest route between lisbon and kiev". It is a trivial thing to do, provided you can get airline data.
But you can't scrape ryanair's website because they willingly put counter measures in place (e.g. captchas) so you cant do that.
I guess my point is that if we get to the point were a bot can do generic requests without the aid of a human a captchas will probably not be able to stop it.
This "AI" is just scrapping and replacing wikipedia while serving ads.
Imagine an integrated Siri with those kind of capabilities. It doesn't have to be fully automatic. Letting a secretary do stuff also isn't fully automatic, (s)he's there to optimize your time into doing only the important decisions (sign on agreements, clicking confirm after having seen the price..).
I think the situation is closer to "true AI is the key to a usable if situationally depend knowledge graph". Because the world doesn't have single knowledge graph that you can learn and use in all situations. Certainly, you can find a lot of common instances where the average works but once you're past that, you need the kind of understanding of language that present day systems are far from having.
The logical way to overcome this via a "data first" brute force approach is to build personalized knowledge graphs of every potential customer. Which is in effect what every statistically sophisticated large business is attempting.
Both are valid, I'm just curious.
I like WolframAlpha.
Having done research in this field doesn't qualify you to have authoritative opinions on search or AI. I don't necessarily disagree with you on search, but I don't see why a dataset would be the key to AI. AI is a function, not a dataset.
I always try to mention his when people get over excited a out the semantic web. Most of the important stuff that we would like to automate we also insist that a bot not be allowed to do it. It's pretty scitzo in my opinion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco,_Cebu
As someone who has done research in the field, did you read the Gizmodo review of Siri?
http://gizmodo.com/5864293/siri-is-apples-broken-promise
The set of "knowledge graph" problems which is not, in fact, AI-complete, strikes me as much smaller than most doing research in the field would like us to think.
I hope you won't try to argue that "book me a room" etc. isn't AI-complete. There's an uncanny valley there, and it's deep. You can use Siri for lots of trivial tasks in which bizarre failures are hilarious rather than disastrous, but booking hotel rooms isn't in that set. She can be the best secretary in the world 9 times out of 10 or even 99 out of a 100, but the other times she's an insane robot who wouldn't at all mind sending you to Cebu to get kidnapped by the MILF...