Are we all doomed? Why? | Hacker News Reader

Are we all doomed? Why?

23 pointsgcj29 comments

I think it's become clear the great age where being a software developer meant you could never be unemployed is done.

One of my favorite podcasts (Soft Skills Engineering) has been talking about it for months. My article about how to easily find a job as a dev, which got me literally hundreds of e-mails of thanks, no longer makes sense https://gcj.io/blog/how-to-get-a-better-dev-job/.

I myself have just been laid off, and since I was foreseeing the decline of the company, I have been firing CVs away for MONTHS and couldn't find any decent offer. Not even a half decent one. Hell, a friend who's worked at Twitter, among others, can't find a job.

Is this AI? Is it a temporary decline of the market? Caused by what?

Is there still any niche where we can be employed faster as we could just a year ago? Are we all going to die?

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Not doomed, but perhaps needing an adjustment of expectations and lifestyle (depending on what you were used to relative to salary in the past).

The "why" is ZIRP (zero-interest rate policy) money. That made it possible for a lot of tech companies to operate in the red for long stretches of time. Now that that cash is drying/dried up, they're having to reduce hits to cash flow and act like real, money-making businesses.

Unfortunately, many companies will get rid of their more-talented (but more expensive) employees to keep costs down short-term. Long-term, this will burn them exactly the way you'd expect. My personal bet is that in 18-24 months, the technical issues will be piling up and companies will panic-hire senior talent at a premium to come clean up the mess.

Until then: lower expectations and humility are likely the best bet. It's also a great time to start your own business/company if that's an option.

Those are good tips and also a good diagnosis

>Unfortunately, many companies will get rid of their more-talented (but more expensive) employees to keep costs down short-term. Long-term, this will burn them exactly the way you'd expect.

Is this your personal observation or from some other sources?

Anecdotal/inference. I've seen quite a few posts on Twitter of people who were let go from high-paying/high-ranking positions surprised they've had trouble finding their next gig, too.

Idk. Things are cyclical. We have only had “modern society” for a few decades.

I’m a brown guy. This is the first time for people like me to not be in zoo exhibits or be called savages. That’s only a hundred years ago. My grandfather grew up under British colonial rule.

This thing about not having a job. I mean all things eventually get automated.

I’d recommend not being a doomer glued to the present and past.

Look for opportunities and capitalize on them. If you won’t others will.

We are getting closer and closer to true equality. When nobody has economic value to offer because we can automate it all, we might get to the Star Trek future. I hope.

Right now the pressure is coming from a combination of over-hiring and the increase in interest rates. Even if AI hype is realistic, corporations are human enterprises that move much slower than changing everything in a single year. Things don't move that fast because humans don't move that fast. We're still at the beginning. Don't believe the hype, it's what Sequoia and Andreessen want to create their paper money. This cycle hasn't even begun to play out. Horses aren't unemployed just because we have cars.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39824275

>This cycle hasn't even begun to play out. Horses aren't unemployed just because we have cars.

Mr. Ed has only been helped by streaming in recent years, despite the wider decline in television viewership.

Relax. I started in IT in the early nineties, which in Europe weren't all that great. Not a lot of jobs for developers. Then it got crazy with the millennium bug hype. The sky was the limit! Companies had interviews at car dealerships and if you spelled your name mostly right, you had a well-paying job and rode out in a free brand new car.

Then the dot-com bust happened. Oh no, everybody got laid off, there certainly was no future in IT. Until the market picked up like never before and every developer hopped to greener pastures every few months. Happy days!

Then the financial crisis in 2008 made a lot of frowny faces. After which the growth in the IT market was frankly insane again.

And now, well, it's all on a downwards trajectory again. The days of getting half a million dollars for playing with a two weeks old framework at a startup that bleeds money and never has, or will, turn a profit are over.

The AI hype is just starting, and perhaps it will have to get worse before it all gets better again. But it will get better. Still, the market isn't all that bad now, if you accepts a job at a smaller company that isn't FAANG-level.

Ups and downs. It's never been different.

> Is this AI?

> Is it a temporary decline of the market?

Yes

> Caused by what?

That's a complex thing to answer, but the fed funds rate starting 2022 at 0.08% and now being 5.33% doesn't help.

> Is there still any niche where we can be employed faster as we could just a year ago?

> Are we all going to die?

Epictetus said "it has been given to you for the present, not that it should not be taken from you, nor has it been given to you for all time, but as a fig is given to you or a bunch of grapes at the appointed season of the year"

>> Is it a temporary decline of the market?

>Yes

Could you please explain in more details you think so?

Most large-cap companies are preparing/bracing for a financial crisis. We keep reading about hundreds or thousands of people being let go.

In such cases (remember 2008 and 2012) they will hire the absolutely necessary, and will let go those who a) are unnecessary, and b) are expensive but not needed for the next few years.

But I could be wrong (I'm afraid I'm not)

Why do I think it has declined but will go back up?

Because I've been following the field since the early 1990s and have been in it since the mid 1990s, and have seen it act as a sine wave, although the amplitude can change.

The US was in a recession until March 1991, and this affected the IT job market. Even out to 1993 it was slow. It began picking up in 1994, more in 1995, more in 1996, until 1999 when it was hotter than I've ever seen it. Then the dot com crash happened in 2000, and things were worse for the next three years, especially in IT companies. Then things began picking up until the 2008 subprime crash which affected the whole economy.

As others have alluded to in the thread, for people just coming out of college in spring of 2011 - interest rates were 0.10%. This is historically unusual. IT companies and IT were in a go-go time for a number of years up until the end of 2022, not seen since the dot-com days.

IT companies were hiring and paying like crazy in 1999. It was much more difficult to get a good-paying, or even any, job at an IT company in the Bay Area in 2001. By 2007 things had picked up a little. Then at the end of 2009 things were dire all over the economy. Then by 2021 IT was booming again.

So will it be booming again in the future like it was in 1999 or 2021? History says it will. Will it again be in the dumps like it was in 2001, 2009 and to some extent now? History says it will.

I don't see any historic change from what happened in the past, although of course some computer languages are falling out of favor while others are coming into favor, and job roles are shifting around - yesterday was monolithic, today is microservers, yesterday was waterfall, today is agile and scrum etc. People have been programming since the 1950s, and the job market has seen its ups and downs since then. Nothing happened in the past year and a half that is off of that.

It's possible neural networks will change things in the coming years, but someone is going to have to program all those Python pytorch scripts and the like. I'm sure in the next year or two we will see amazing new things like Sora come out. We'll even see programmers using LLMs or whatever to generate little functions more. The notion that neural networks are going to wipe out programmers in the next year or two (or three, or four) is inane. I can barely get ChatGPT 4 to write some simple (WORKING) functions I want, never mind gather specifications, ask for clarifications on those specifications, design a proper architecture for the project with unit testing and so on. This will surely improve in the next few years, but not by much in the next few years at least.

Thank you for such informative reply which I find very useful for me.

>The notion that neural networks are going to wipe out programmers in the next year or two (or three, or four) is inane. I can barely get ChatGPT 4 to write some simple (WORKING) functions I want, never mind gather specifications, ask for clarifications on those specifications, design a proper architecture for the project with unit testing and so on. This will surely improve in the next few years, but not by much in the next few years at least.

This is my experience and thoughts too. In most cases I can write code faster than write a prompt to generate same code and after check it.

I use LLMs and I find them useful but do not need to use them often.

Of course we're doomed. We always are.

We're doomed by the sun going nova in 4 billion years. Shorter term, we're doomed by global warming, economic instability, the AI revolution, viruses, farmland failure, political chaos/incompetence, the international order falling apart (maybe in a very hot war), and the fall of civilization.

But we always have been. My grandparents went through World War II, the Great Depression, World War II, and then the Cold War. That looked like a lot of doom, and it got quite deadly for a huge number of people. But we (as a society) survived.

Your bank account may take a painful hit. But things will settle down to some approximation of stability, and there will be work, including work for you. It may be a bumpy ride, though.

These AI models don't train themselves, and the companies offering them need people to operate their service and write their apps and backend. AI software engineers mean they can get away with fewer humans in the loop to do things, but for now they still need a human in the loop. So we're not doomed quite yet.

The upcoming generation already have it much harder, with 5 rounds of leetcode interviews, high saturation of devs, offshoring and AI all working against them.

I would expect anyone doing this from 2010 to at least have decent savings and solid experience at known companies. If not, its definitely over for them.

> I would expect anyone doing this from 2010 to at least have decent savings

This is what I don't understand. A lot of developers could easily retire if they saved their money decently well for a decade or even less. Are we all just greedy?

> Is this AI?

AI for me is just a small assistant role I hire when creating projects. It's not the whole product/service with all its moving parts which require a human-in-the-loop. It's not going to spit out a fully fledged SaaS enterprise for you or run a business for you.

Companies are using the macro monetary environment as justification to undermine bargaining gains employees made during COVID. In the same way, companies have been using inflation as a cover to raise prices higher.

For established companies, I don't really buy the argument that the policy rate is forcing companies to focus on cash flow. Companies are just taking advantage--and since everyone in software thinks they're a top 10% performer no one wants to collectively bargain. And since workers cannot coordinate with each other, companies can do things like rolling layoffs to force individuals to come to the negotiation table with a much worse position.

I don't think that AI is a substantial reason for this. I'm reminded of the "No Silver Bullet" rule from Fred Brooks:

> there is no single development, in either technology or management technique, which by itself promises even one order of magnitude [tenfold] improvement within a decade in productivity, in reliability, in simplicity.

... now sure, Brooks wasn't talking about AI, but LLMs are not AGI and more resemble a modern iteration of a search engine, in my opinion, than a technology that truly breaks the rule. It's really easy to build software demos that look compelling like Devin, but even if the videos weren't cherry picked examples, the hardest part of software development isn't writing the code.

This is premature. The AI hype cycle has yet to play itself out.

I think the harsh reality here is that companies pay the lowest they can for the best they can get. When you're talking about working remote abroad then you either need to be extremely niched/skilled down (machine learning, blockchain, etc), exactly what they are looking for down to the dirt under your nails, or you have to be "the guy" that a company can't do without (known, network respected, etc).

Lots of companies base their salaries on the locations of their workers. They understand how the market has changed and that they can near-shore or off-shore very easily with today's tools (post covid). However, they want happy employees, so giving an above-average wage for their location is just good business.

When you live in a location where the salary from western countries is 300-1000% higher than locally sourced, you better bring your A-game. You will always be the first person that a company looks at and says "are we overpaying for this?". I'm saying this as someone who also works remotely with western countries.

Also, here are some tips for your cv (which was better than most, but still some glaring problems):

- Be specific: Things like "Designed and managed big APIs" sounds like BS (not saying it is, it just sounds that way). Mention which, mention why, mention how.

- Each bullet should matter: "Worked extensively on a big codebase in Laravel and React", okay, so what? You and every other fullstack dev can do that too. Why should anyone hire you over them?

- These were your most powerful lines: "Improved a CSV ingestion service time from 20 hours to 4 minutes" and "I cut Cloud billing from around USD150 daily to around USD5 daily". Do more of that. Tell the reviewer how much GOOD you did for the company. Show off your mastery and wow them. If it doesn't wow, it ow's.

- I would roll some of the previous jobs into one. You have some there that last for 5-8 months, it's not a good look. Roll them up into a single May 2012- Jul 2021 at Company A, Company B, Company C, and then list off of the best things you did there in aggregate.

Sadly, the majority of pay scale is what you can negotiate for. If you're not a good negotiator/salesman then you're gonna have a hard time regardless. It wouldn't hurt to "specify down" and go after one of the highest paying verticals instead of the most average one (fullstack dev).

Thanks for the tips!

The end of free money and a weak economy (at least from consumer spending power). Yes, it will be bad. I'm especially screwed for a few reasons.

section 174 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/18/software-firms-face-huge-tax... is prob related

US is the largest capitalistic nation with the largest mega tech corporations. 6 of them above $1T market cap.

We are likely not going to die but the reality is any corporation has no responsibility to hire and pay people well.

A solo founder could very well be running a billion dollar corp with the help of AI employees.

The bitter truth is there will be more automation in the coming years and decades - both physical and digital. The value of the average worker has dropped and will drop.

More wealth will accumulate to those who are already wealthy and own assets, and those who can build what people want.

It’s the new stage of survival evolution. Automate or be automated.

C'mon people, have some common sense!

Learn history (or history of economics), not some podcast gurus personal opinions :)

coal mining? https://www.popsci.com/technology/ai-power/

It feels weird, doesn't it? I have been warning people about this for a number of years now, but they would label me conspiracy theorist...now they tasting their own medicine and go bananas; well, I warned you people lol!

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