I see it ending in another way, long term FOSS will be considered a phase in the industry, never to be repeated again, as the industry settles back on trial and demo versions, without full features available on the free tier/source code.
Redis the project/tool existed long before Redis the company owned it.
Vagrant existed before HashiCorp owned it.
Significantly: both companies dropped permissive licensing after the creator of their (original) products stepped away, and both are venture capital backed companies.
So we could just as easily say "I see that long term people will preemptively fork projects the moment they are owned by a VC backed company"
I think you somehow missed the point where Redis the project existed and was extremely popular before it was owned by what is now Redis the company.
The competition for redis in the early days wasn't paid alternatives, it was other open source alternatives; Redis just provided a more featured solution.
It wasn't a "demo" for a paid product funded by corporate dollars or VC funding, it was just a thing that someone created, and released as an open source project.
It's hilarious that you think the companies dropping open source licenses for the products they bought are going to stop the industry using open source. As I said originally, it's going to have the opposite affect: it's going to make the industry embrace the very nature of open source and create forks of projects, the moment there's a sniff of a corporate buy out, specifically because of this type of activity.
The ongoing uptake in open core, shows where it goes.
I find it hard to believe many if any would see "create an open source tool" as a method to become a millionaire.
We are probably not going to see mass investment by VCs in free software for awhile (perhaps never, but that is pretty strong), but developers will keep scratching our itch.
And maybe more and more developers and users will realise that AGPL/GPL/LGP are the only licenses which truly protect one’s software.
I don't think this is a fair assessment of the cause of the issue with redis, or hashicorp, or elasticsearch etc;
This wasn't some nefarious third party taking all the community good will and contributions and creating a private fork to kill the original projects.
If you don't want some corporate asshole to turn your open source project into a get rich quick scheme, don't give control of your project to that asshole.
The above applies to private people as well. You use how many different pieces of software, what are you doing to ensure they stay maintained. (if you are like most nothing...)
What we are seeing here, as others have pointed out, is that companies are buying Open Source solutions and then close sourcing them because they view it as a money maker which in the end leads to forks.
so the original owner of said OSS being sold is making money by selling it to this company (who might be told, or is sold the idea that said OSS could be monetized).
This is no different to a startup making their own acquisition the end goal.
What does not work, not long term, is trying to build a business around selling a FOSS solution - RedHat is probably the only notable exception here. But having multiple companies invest in a common tool that they all use as part of their infrastructure has worked wonders.
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