America's economy has escaped a hard landing

I don't know where you got this impression from, but that's not what the official data says. In relative terms, the bottom 50% hold a larger share of the total net worth than they have since 2003 (ignoring the obviously temporary Cantillon spike), which is over 5 times as much as they did in 2011, and finally comfortably above 50% of their record in 1993 (since 1990) [1]. In absolute terms, they hold twice as many real dollars as they did in 1990 [2], which they got to through the largest relative spike and smallest relative fall of all the tracked tranches. Meanwhile the relative wealth of the two rich segments of 99-100 and 90-99 have been flat for a decade and hardest-landed slightly above the all time low in 1996 [3].

It's truly remarkable to me that people don't remember just how bad things used to be. It's not even been eighteen years; what's the excuse for such short institutional memory? I even doubled the standard graph height and it still pretty much disappears both absolutely and relatively. Or perhaps the talking points are just a little under eighteen years out of date? In that case, there's some good news on the horizon: The yield curve has risen dangerously close to un-inverted [0], which has precipitated or tracked with every recession since the mid 50s, and will probably rise more soon as the market prices back out Powell's flinch in the face of thirty-five months of inflation over 3%; the poor usually take it on the chin the hardest during malinvestment blowups as they scramble to underbid each other for the remaining jobs that didn't fold under the weight of unprofitable compassion, so we can expect the reality of poverty to give wealth inequality rhetoric a comeback. Give it two good years and we can all join Alan Kay in complaining about "That [second] time the bankers stole all our money" once again when the data refresh our memories on just how bad they can get.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1317951

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1317969

[3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1317984

[0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

"The economy" is solely a measure of how rich people are doing financially.

Any other concerns aren't captured there no matter how important we keep saying they are. I think we ought to track a "bloody revolution index" but that would probably just give people ideas.

I think it’s both (great economy, poor sentiment). The economy is strong because unemployment is low. Unemployment is low because of a tight labor market due to structural demographics. But housing is expensive because of housing shortages, which will take years, if not decades, of building to resolve. Credit is expensive making buying durable goods expensive (autos, specifically). Healthcare is…you know.

We’re closer to “living within our means” (versus cheap credit inflating consumer and business spend) from an equilibrium perspective, but the ZIRP party is over, happiness is reality minus expectations, and everyone is disappointed in what reality looks like.

You might not lose your job, but you’re still chained to a treadmill with no relief in sight. Hence, sentiment.

>the US economy is very strong, and has been for quite some time now. We all just don't like to admit it.

What should "a strong US economy" mean to the common middle class worker? I think that's the issue. Unemployment is low, but several sectors are finding it harder to find work than ever, with companies slashing roles in real time.

Where are these roles, what kind of roles are they (part time, gig?), and can people actually live off of these roles? if unemployment is zero and everyone is flipping burgers, that doesn't seem to be an actual win for the working class.

The economy is strong but people aren't feeling it because wages haven't caught up to inflation. It's a soft landing, which is great news, but hard to get excited.

Absolutely, poor media coverage has lead to poor sentiment despite a consistently good economic recovery since gas prices went down in 2022.

If the economy is that strong, why are housing prices outrageously high on either coast, where the jobs are? To paraphrase Jesus, it's not about Man serving the Economy, it's about the Economy serving Man.

I am skeptical whether "greedflation" is a real phenomenon. Corporations were no less greedy a few years ago. Recent high inflation rates are more likely connected to monetary policy.