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Comment by _heimdall | Hacker News Reader

Both of these scenarios are a gamble and not guaranteed.

On the social side: the gamble is that social growth will outpace the increased economic pressure. Meaning, you need the new vertical growth to create opportunities faster than it increases prices further in the area. A land tax alone wouldn't pull people out of poverty, create affordable housing, or open up public school. Those are all just potential avenues for the city to develop, not guarantees.

On the environment: cities aren't isolated enclaves. Resources needed to build, maintain, and feed the city all come from the outside world. The more you build up the more steel, concrete, glass, energy, etc is needed. The more people packed into the city the more food you need to ship in and waste you need to ship out.

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Sprawling low density cities consume resources too. Mass transit is less effective, so more people must buy and drive cars. Roads and highways are wider and more extensive. Cars need storage at the origin and destination of every trip, so homes need driveways or garages and businesses need parking lots. Other infrastructure must expand too: power lines, water/sewer pipes, communication wires, and so on.

One million people would need about the same amount of food/energy if they lived in 1,000 sq. mi. as they would if they lived in 100 sq. mi. But the cost per person to house and transport people in a dense city is lower than in a sprawling one.

> On the social side: the gamble is that social growth will outpace the increased economic pressure. Meaning, you need the new vertical growth to create opportunities faster than it increases prices further in the area. A land tax alone wouldn't pull people out of poverty, create affordable housing, or open up public school. Those are all just potential avenues for the city to develop, not guarantees.

There are a lot of ill defined and bizarre things here. What is "economic pressure"? I have never heard such a term before. Why would there be "price increases" (inflation)? I have never heard anyone serious posit a link between density and inflation. It's the exact opposite because economics of scale and scope can deliver services more efficiently. Why shouldn't a land tax contribute towards "affordable housing" when the economic logic predicts it will have a deflationary impact on housing costs? Why do you think I'm saying that a land tax will "open up [new] public schools"? I said there would be a change in incentives away from excluding poor people from your local school catchment area, which has historically driven local resistance to upzoning. Honestly, it sounds like you should read up on basic economics before you form these opinions. The subject matter is primarily economics and such basic knowledge is a prerequisite to understanding the rationale behind one tax or another.

> The more you build up the more steel, concrete, glass, energy, etc is needed.

No, this is forgetting that you have the same number of people in either scenario. It takes more resources to build 1000 single detached homes (and associated roads, train stations, shops etc) than 10 apartment buildings with 100 homes (with less roads, less train stations than the former scenario).

Economic pressure is a pretty common term, I'm a little surprised you would be diving so deep into potential economic impacts of a new tax without knowing the term. Here's a good definition and explanation [1].

Price increases are possible here because it all depends on what is built on the currently vacant lots, or on lots that are cleared when the old buildings no longer make economic sense with the new tax. The example given early in this thread was a car wash versus a new biotech facility. A new, expensive biotech facility wouldn't help with affordable house at all but it would bring in more individuals with higher salaries. Prices could also go up if new construction further increases the city's density or population - more people means more demand and higher prices unless supply increases faster.

Economies of scale aren't a given simply because a new land tax would change building incentives. Economies are much to complex for that and can't be boiled down to a single lever or knob. Changing one thing can have a much different outcome than predicted.

I'm not sure why you would expect a land value tax to have a deflationary impact on housing. There's no direct link between a land value tax and an increase in affordable housing, meaning we can't assume there will be more affordable housing created. What we do know is that land owners now have a new tax to pay, and if you are renting out property on the land you will pass a large portion of the new tax onto them in the form of rent increases. This is literally a concept covered in the intro to economics course I took 15 years ago, if you aren't aware of how businesses handle new taxes I'd recommend you read up on it before pushing too strongly for a new tax.

[1] https://www.smartcapitalmind.com/what-is-economic-pressure.h...

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