My anecdotal observations from service providers in the space:

No. That’s very much not the case in practice… Not in the case of family homes and nonlinear demand, that is.

My HVAC guy likes heat pumps, but he thinks their lifespan is about 1/2 or 2/3 the life of an HVAC unit; the equipment is the same (pumps, motors, etc), but the heat pump runs nonstop year-round. He still prefers heat pumps, since they're all electric, and can be solar powered (I'm in Texas); so, the combination makes a lot more sense, in the long-run.

Lennox advertises that a heat pump lifespan is equivalent to an AC, which is 12 years vs 20 years for a furnace.