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I plan to short it soon after the IPO

I’ve thought about doing this as a more general IPO strategy on the assumption that there’s going to be a sell-off of employee owned equity.

I’m sure that there’s a way to estimate the number of shares vested by employees and come up with an estimate sell-off volume for day 0-1

Aren’t employees usually restricted on selling for like 6 months?

Well then you should circle that date 6-mo after IPO (or the end of any non-IPO blackout period) as days with mass sell-offs regardless of the stock price

You act like that isn’t cooked into the optimizations of the market. It is, or everyone could follow your get-rich-quick scheme. Go ahead, try us a few time, see how it goes.

But is that actually baked in to the price? (I’m legitimately asking, not being argumentative)

Back when I worked at a big public company where we had options and employee blackout dates, there would almost always be a dip in the stock price when the blackout was lifted

The "baked into the price" also includes the price of options. I would not be surprised to find that the price premium of options dated around the 6 month window would negate the gain from the drop.

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