The Future of the Monetary System [pdf] | Hacker News Reader

The Future of the Monetary System [pdf]

credit-suisse.com

59 pointsvikrum57 comments

From the Conclusions section:

> The main question we tried to answer is whether a significant shift away from the US dollar as the dominant “hegemonic” currency is likely to occur in the foreseeable future, and in which direction the monetary system might develop. The key conclusion was that the fate of the US dollar as the currency hegemon depends on a number of factors, with the degree to which US policy makers would be able to maintain macroeconomic stability relative to other countries of supreme importance. Only if stability is maintained will the US dollar retain its position as the safe-haven currency of choice.

In heavily hedged terms, they conclude that the situation is currently stable and likely to remain so. My opinion is that there's good information in this document but the editing (mostly in the sense of structure and clarity) is quite poor, prone to using the very real complexity of the issues at hand as an excuse for weasel words, wishy-washiness, and desperation to please one's boss. In reading this document, I recommend that you keep in mind that the document is from late 2022 and Credit Suisse imploded in early 2023, so, as the document's authors might say, one suspects that it does not represent a level of intellectual rigor that one would prefer to see from a globally important bank.

Economic sanctions imposed by Switzerland on Russian individuals and businesses had the most significant impact on the demise of the bank. Credit Suisse held about $33 billion for Russian clients, 50% more than UBS.

What does any of this have to do with "intellectual rigor?" sources are cited in the paper and the authors are among leading global economists. death by association is a cheap way to avoid the real intellectual rigor of refuting legitimate points in the publication.

Political unrest in the US and US over-reliance on sanctions are two of the most damning threats to monetary hegemony in the 21st century. routine defaults on an arbitrary ceiling of debt have precipitously reduced US credit ratings over the past decade. a federal insurrection is also something you might not wish to see in a country that boasts its safe currency.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_sanctions

the us sanctions about 26 countries and nearly 2300 people. so https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/sanctions-by-the-n...

Why would the $33B from Russian clients be crucial? Seems far too small compared to the outflows that were happening (q4 22 plus q1 23 more than $150B, I think) for it to be that critical.

You know what, fair, that was too harsh of me; I was probably speaking more out of irritation about the editorial issues. Thanks for the pushback.

Some overengineered paper from January 23. It is 2024 and there is no more cs. I wouldn't take this serious, the bank that published it couldn't even survive 23. No risk management whatsoever.

For those who are claiming they should dismiss this paper because it was written by Credit Suisse (who have collapsed), I will weigh in as someone who works in a bank. The people who wrote this would have had absolutely nothing to do with the banks risk management or corporate decision making, and so exist more or less orthogonally from the people who caused its collapse. This is doubly true given European regulation which requires segregation of business lines within the bank: you even see the report is produced by ‘credit suisse research institute’ which will produce+sell research separately from the risk taking parts of the business. Not saying it’s correct/not prone to groupthink but the people writing will be some of the top economists/research analysts out there.

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