I am fairly convinced now that in about ten years time, the tech war will be seen as a huge strategic blunder.
And now we see that this is rapidly degrading over the last decade.
I think the belief was that if the west cutoff China, they would be left in the dark. Instead they have more than enough knowledge on how to make these things that it became a driving force to active decouple from the west.
Provided the other economic/demographic/political issues don't become a major problem to China, this will definitely be a large blunder.
without tech war, China could progress much faster in emerging tech(AI?). But since there is no counterfactual data, there always will be people who use this to push narrative.
The time to clip China's wings was the late 90s, but we were too drunk on triumphalism and busy looting Russia.
Alexa, show democracy rankings of countries who are sympathetic to China
Now, could we try some strategic empathy, learn about other people around the world, why they despise us, and maybe try to arrest the collapse of the West?
Or are we ok with just snarky mismanaged decline?
Except it's even worse than that. It's so easily reduced to parody because it was a strawman to begin with. We don't really give a flying ** about democracy; if that were true, would we have backed the string of strongmen running South Korea in the first 35 years of its independence? Would we ever let a single dime reach Saudi Arabia? I wish our leaders would be honest about it though-- if we just said "we have economic and military hegemony and it's our mission to preserve it", then nobody will waste their efforts trying to find middle ground and win-win solutions.
We should ask why China is winning hearts and minds overseas: maybe they're prioritizing the things people actually need? They don't come in and airdrop a half-baked democracy on a country with little interest in it. They've been loose with the economic aid, and have strayed away from the Western/IMF "let's demand massive austerity and privatization" gameplan. There's nothing stopping the US from doing the same things, but with a bigger bankroll to play with.
The point is to slow them down and just make it harder to compete today, the US is pouring more money into chip research and manufacturing than the entire rest of the world combined, and nobody thinks the US is going to fall behind anytime soon. Not to mention the 5 other massive strategic disadvantages China has just purely on geography alone (i.e. energy policy).
TL;DR Who cares if China is self sufficient on tech in 10 years, they were gonna be self sufficient in 15 years anyways, and it's not like China is going to be loading up on Nvidia's stack forever.
If there was going to be a time to do it, it would be now. Any later would just not matter as they would be ramping up their own production anyways.
Before USA's trade war, 99% of CN companies, even the state owned firms, believe in 造不如买make your own is not as good as buying. Most purchase decisions is based on market forces, better product, more reputation, competitive priced = deal. Its really hard for Chinese companies in chips, semi equipment, etc to break into the market. Say you want to compete with TI in microcontrollers, nobody wants to buy from you when they have mature products from TI.
Now, the USA with export bans and its own subsidies, single handedly destroyed the "make your own is not as good as buying" mentality. Every company in every sector now has to worry, if I buy a microcontroller from TI for my toaster, what if Washington have a mental break down tomorrow and decide to ban it with a stroke of pen. Even if my alternative isn't as good, I won't have a business. And as companies starting using alternatives, that product gets better with feedback loop and iteration. Rome isn't build in a day, but it's built by human hands. Once a product starts the commercial cycle, it improves. People believed that US sanctions only targets selected companies, then Oct 2023 GPU ban targets the entire country, every single company. Now even a game streaming company can't buy the GPU they want. What do you think companies with 10B dollars of revenue streaming video games are going to do? Invest in every single semi-conductor companies in the entire supply chain, from GPU, to EDA, to semi-tools. USA is attacking huge sectors of CN economy, sectors with revenues of hundreds of billions of dollars, making an enemy out of all them, what do you think they will respond? The demand is still there, people will still buy their toaster, watch livestreamed video games, companies will need to operate, and the supplies are needed. Whoever can fill that demand laughs to the bank.
The trade blockade strategy might work for smaller countries. But 1) China has always been many forms of trade blockade ever since the country is founded. See wassenaar arrangement. China can't get advanced machine tools, EDA, CAD, and many others. So there are many small companies, research labs, SOEs, universities that have been doing R&D on these tech for decades. The problem is products in these areas have very strong winner takes all effect, they don't have marketplace battle tested products. But the flip side is that they have talents, they have some IP, know how and tech. Chinese semi tools companies are rapidly advancing in the last 6 years, but they started 20 years ago because the west's sanctions on China. So when US wages the tech blockade, Chinese don't start from scratch, they take what they have in the lab, not mature, but have some value, and start putting it on production lines and iterate. 2) CN has a large internal market, and increasingly competitive in global markets for all kinds of goods, even if the entire western world stops buying from China, the rest of world + internal market is big enough for many products to be profitable and iterate. As long as there is demand, there will be people study and making it. 3) CN has surplus of university grads, many universities, etc, what if we find them some work to do?
Oh and the reason why CN has been doing self-sufficiency is because the country has always been sanctioned since its founding. And western decades of western sanctions have created CN's R&D industrial base in "hard tech", such as materials, automation, industrial software, optronics etc. I guess many policy experts forgot this fact and never bothered to study what really goes on in China. They forgot they have been sanctioning CN for decades and the Chinese have always thought they can't rely on others. Why do you think they can trust you when you sanction and attack them? The self-reliance mentality is created by western sanctions. The solution is always build trust and remove the rational that causes others to think a certain way.