German intelligence: Putin plans to attack NATO in 2026 | Hacker News Reader

German intelligence: Putin plans to attack NATO in 2026

businessinsider.de

7 pointspaulcarroty10 comments

Editorialized title. The article says that Russia is increasing arms production, aiming to double their military power. With that, an attack on NATO can _not be ruled out completely_.

I really find it unhelpful to read these kinds of articles. We all know about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, and countless other narratives that mould public opinion in the country of origin.

The stable solution was for NATO to stay in the West and for Russia to stay in the East, as was agreed upon in the 90s, around the time the Soviet Union collapsed. Instead, NATO steadily expanded eastwards until they got slapped in Ukraine in a pointless war.

"As agreed upon in the 90s"? What agreement is that?

AIUI ① none of the new members of NATO agreed to not apply, ② all of them applied after a solid majority of the voters in that country was in favour of applying, and ③ none of the old NATO members agreed to turn down anyone's application. What have I missed?

James Baker, Sec. of State met with Shevardnadze (sp?) in the 90s and agreed with Russia that in exchange for a United Germany tied to NATO, there would be iron-clad guarantees that NATO forces wouldn't move eastwards. I remember this part clearly as I had to write a paper on it at the time. My memory is fuzzy on the other players, but Chancellor Helmut Kohl and Robert Gates were part of this whole thing.

The "open door" policy NATO followed does not jive with the intent of that agreement.

Someone else replied about the facts, but I'm also curious about how you wrote that paper.

The NATO treaty says the member parliaments decide on accession. You wrote a paper saying it was changed without consulting or even telling those parliaments, is that right? I'd be fascinated to see how you wordsmithed that. It's nice if you dig it up.

USSR's top leaders were still alive in 2014 when Putin used it as a pretext for the invasion of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea and talked about it in several interviews:

* Shevardnadze, the minister of foreign affairs denied this and said that he did not discuss anything like that with anyone during his tenure.[1]

* Yazov, the minister of defense said that he doesn't know anything about it either.[2]

* Gorbachev, the general secretary of the communist party, called it "a myth" and said that you won't find anything in writing because there was no such agreement, and that had they had an agreement, they would've written it down.[2]

Other figures, like Kozyrev, the first post-USSR Russian minister of foreign affairs, have used even harsher words, calling the story "simply nonsense", and people who keep repeating this fabrication "chumps and useful idiots".[3]

[1] https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-e...

[2] https://twitter.com/splendid_pete/status/1650735533826375680

[3] https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/russias-ex-foreign-ministe...

I think this link contradicts your theory:

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017...

Who will strike first Russia or China? Both are building up and will eventually move. Russia is drawing down at the same time so they seem unlikely to launch a big campaign. At worst they might reoccupy some former Soviet territories

I'm really tired of this constant fear around most topics with clearly suggestive hints. Ramping up production does not mean there is a plan with a date attached next to it laid out in the wild for everyone to see. This is starting to feel like a self-fulfilling prophecy, where some misstep will escalate it all, because everyone was convinced its perfectly reasonable to join in without considering any other options on the table. If you think about it, all sides here have no problem sending the youth to die for their set of delusions. Now consider the threat of mass destruction and it really makes you scratch your head what went wrong with politics overall. We are literally repeating history over and over again by taking the wrong turns when the signs present themselves.

> Ramping up production does not mean there is a plan with a date attached next to it laid out in the wild for everyone to see.

Heard this bullshit a lot in 2021.

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