Homicide rates seem to spike 1-2 years after a recession in Mexico, or at least based on comparisons of GDP Growth rate contractions and homicides per 10k [0][1].

And this does make sense - if you don't have a job, the cartel's offer is fairly competitive.

Also, those areas that tend to be the most violent are also part of the now largely defunct Maquiladora belt.

[0] - https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/MEX/nor...

[1] - https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/MEX/mex...

At least in mexico, criminal violence is definitely tied to poverty.