Source: https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/hydrogens-role...
There’re fuel cells which oxidize propane instead of hydrogen, here’s an overview https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00162...
We have already solved storage and transport of propane. Production is harder because natural gas is so cheap, but there’s some promising R&D https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37218727
Trucking is almost certainly going to be primarily batteries. Electricity is always going to be cheaper than hydrogen made from electricity. Trucking is a low margin business, so cost is the primary consideration.
Batteries can be used for short distance flight, but they don't work for long distance flight. There hydrogen will be competing against synthetic kerosene. Green hydrogen is cheaper than synthetic kerosene but the big problem is certification. I figure it'd take 20 years, and that clock hasn't started yet. Synthetic kerosene can be used in existing designs.
Shipping is volume sensitive, not weight. My prediction is that they will more likely switch to ammonia. Given how easy it is for ships to jurisdiction shop, I imagine it will be a long time before they switch.
Ultimately though, I’m not 100% sure battery production can keep up. Lithium production is growing by ~20% YoY and that’s just from transitioning a small portion of our automotive fleet to EV. Getting to 100% consumer automotive EV may bump by 2035 which is a common target may bump that up as would using it for grid scale storage. It’ll be interesting to see how the price of lithium keeps up with that increased demand as we exhaust the easily accessible deposits and have to start mining more expensive deposits.
You’re probably right about e-kerosene for aviation and ammonia for shipping although neither of those is actually net 0 in practice (+ emit all sorts of noxious other gasses). Hydrogen would probably be the cleanest although it has larger logistical challenges.
If we had a lithium shortage the price would be spiking. Instead it's crashing. There are only a few kilograms of lithium in each vehicle battery, so the expanded supply is able to keep up.
https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=...
P.S. A diesel semi either has extra tanks so it can go 3000km or it doesn't and can fill in 5 minutes, but not both. Not that it affects your point.
https://carboncredits.com/why-lithium-prices-are-plunging-an...
> California and the federal government had different rules related to the number of hours truckers may drive without a break. Under California law, truckers must take a 30-minute off-duty rest break for every five hours worked and a 10-minute off-duty break for every four-hour period.
> Federal law, on the other hand, required fewer breaks, less often. In the court case IBT v. FMCSA, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the FMCSA’s decision to preempt California’s meal and rest break rules. The court upheld that interstate drivers are exempt from California’s meal and rest break rules because they are “incompatible” with federal regulations.
> Barring an unexpected reversal by the U.S. Supreme Court, truckers in California will satisfy their meal and break obligations under federal regulations without the need to abide by California’s laws in this matter.
> Specifically, these federal rules mandate a break of at least 30 consecutive minutes after 8 cumulative hours of driving time.
It’s 30 minutes of break time every 8 hours not every 4 and the only time it was close to that was temporarily while California had regs that were in effect until SCOTUS overturned.
https://www.gbw.law/blog/2021/march/what-are-california-s-re...
I think you’re right though about long haul trucking in the near term though - I think EVs will probably move first if Tesla scales up production this year & capture the market and mind share and hydrogen will not be able to compete and you’re right about aviation in the short term. Shipping though is ambiguous because it’s still too early to tell who’s winning and aviation may switch long term as part of a decarbonization and anti-pollution push if that ever happens.