Toyota's hybrid-first strategy is delivering big profits
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Typically Honda would compete with Toyota with similar offerings but their hybrids aren't matching up to Toyota yet in MPG and you can't get it in large SUVs.
So now you have a situation where nobody is competing with Toyota because everyone's busy making EVs.
True or not, it's now assumed you can drive a Toyota for 150k miles without breaking a sweat.
Toyota Sienna and Toyota Grand Highlander are three row vehicles rated at 36 MPG. These cars are selling out before they even hit the dealer lot.
There is simply no direct competition to the Toyota Grand Highlander Hybrid, so they charge whatever they want
Why can't the world produce a single EV that looks like the new Bronco, a Wrangler, or even the Defender 90?
I would'nt be surprised if they come out with a 2-door version of such to fill the long vacated slot left by the FJ Cruiser.
The price is pretty much fixed, except for cars which weren't sold after receiving a downpayment for them.
Would really like to hear of a situation where a dealer literally refused a cash or outside financed transaction.
Of the 3 Toyota dealerships I worked with during Covid, not a single one of them charged over MSRP, even for in demand vehicles. I was at the local Toyota dealership a few months ago, and they had a long line of new vehicles parked out front, all with large SOLD signs in the windscreen. Toyota has learned from C19 and not to overstuff their dealerships with products that do not sell and cost dealerships big money in floorplan financing.
It is a similar story at the 2 Honda dealerships I've dealt with in the same time period. MSRP sales, new vehicle lot empty because vehicles are sold before they arrive.
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bb/revenue/ notice the years and how they coincide with the iPhone.
Also when I think about this personally, I was 5x or more faster at typing on my old blackberry than I have ever been on modern phones. When thinking luxury v. necessity, things like that I think will matter a lot more than they did for phones.
The price, technology, and infrastructure for supporting EVS is not appropriate for the majority of us.
I'm not going to buy something as complicated as a hybrid from General Motors, most American car companies or some European brand, when they can't even build very reliable combustion vehicles. Imagine what it would cost to repair such a vehicle from those manufacturers.
It's more about Toyota knowing their strengths and successfully delivering a lineup that honors those strengths than some strategy the other manufacturers are missing.
Personally when I consider buying a Prius Prime or a Model 3 for a similar price with a shorter lead time, I'm going to buy the Model 3 every time.
For example, I’d personally take a Jaguar or Alfa Romeo (two brands particularly famous for lack of reliability) over most Toyotas short of one of their niche models like their GRs or old school SUVs.
So many people fail to understand some people actually like driving. It has nothing to do with showing off how rich you are, other than that the intersection of expensive cars and drivers’ cars overlaps quite a bit.
Aren't some hybrids less complicated than internal combustion engine vehicles?
From what I've seen only the i3 actually simplified this way, but I haven't gone in depth on it since then and that discussion doesn't refer to any specific models.
no you don't. you can skip the transmission and all the variable valve complications that modern ICEs have. Since you have a powerful electric engine, you no longer need the ICE to have good response or a flat torque curve since you can use electric power to fill in the gaps.
It still has all of this, it's just combined into a single unit. Complexity is still there, packaging is just different.
Fundamentally, an ICE with a direct connection to the tires must have a transmission.
Toyota seems to be one of the only companies that is willing to testify before congress and point out what everybody living outside of major cities knows: The infrastructure is not there for many, many people to switch to EVs, and no matter how much we try to artificially force the market to do that, it's just not possible yet. This means that for most people, buying an EV means you are dramatically reducing the utility of your vehicle by ditching features such as ability to use your car on road trips without having to plan extensively to ensure there are charging stations where you need them, and that you have the time to sit and wait (and hope that the stations are available and aren't broken). I know quite a few people that have bought Teslas (or other EVs, but mostly Teslas) and all except one has expressed regret and wished they hadn't**, because they no longer have the same "freedom" that they had from their car before, namely the ability to use it whenever and wherever they wanted to go. The saddest case is a friend who loves to go into the mountains. He works from home and his kids have a bus to school, so his car is mainly used to occasionally run errands, and to go to the mountains. He can't use it for the mountains anymore because it's too risky! Running out of "fuel" is much more frequent and consequential. He also has very little towing capacity now.
A lot of people are hearing about reality/experiences like this, and that is having an impact. Toyota not only seems prophetic, but like the only car company that is well positioned to address this. Hybrids are a great solution combining many of the pros of both EV and ICE.
EVs are the future, but we can't just wish them into existence, even though plenty of people with enormous financial and political incentive to do so, will advocate for that approach.
*And not for nothing. Obviously there are very real and concerning existential reasons why we want to abandon fossil fuels, but that doesn't change any of the economic and technological realities in which we must operate.
**They do love them as commuter cars though without a doubt. The dream seems to be to have two cars: an EV for commuting and around-town and an ICE/hybrid for leaving the city
I mean, sure, when they were willing to temporarily burn money to establish themselves in that market, they could do it, but they couldn’t make it profitable, so they retooled the plant to things they could make profit on.
It’s easy mode to make something affordable if you are sufficiently willing to lose money on it, but that’s hardly a sustainable business.
At least the new Prius looks cool.
My 2nd generation model is going strong at 190k miles even after surviving a cat theft and a cell degenerated. I was able to buy a ebay NiMH cell for $33 and replace one out of 28. But for a long time, I was still able to drive the car around with a degraded battery because it essentially is a Yaris Atkinson engine. Newer hybrids however, are using smaller engines and a Lithium Ion pack. A Li-Ion pack would have degraded quicker in the hot sun where I usually park my car and with more energy cycling. I’m not sure how repairable Li-Ion packs are now and Ebaying for them is a bad idea.
The 3rd generation had some refinements done but the car I own has been getting reports that it isn’t as reliable as its predecessor. I don’t have enough miles on mine to give you all a good anecdote.
Would I still buy a Toyota Hybrid today? It depends. On a compact car, yes. For Toyota, it was easier to prove you have the right tech on a small compact like a Corolla or Camry. But for larger cars, the jury is still out there as they now offer a Hybrid option for almost every vehicle in their lineup. If my only option was between a turbo or a hybrid, I would get the latter option any day. But I would stay away from large SUVs and people haulers with small engines—which is harder to do these days because of emissions standards.
The power split device (hybrid synergy drive) has been absolutely reliable. That type of transmission alone is actually worth the Hybrid option and more of the reason why Toyotas can get to 200k miles trouble-free, not merely the engine. When someone says ‘Toyota Hybrid’, it’s really the transmission that deserves the accolades. The transmission is actually is what breaks before engines in most cars. Toyota has this one figured out unlike most other car manufacturers.
Toyota engines don’t die by going out with a bang like other cars. But, it’ll start burning motor oil with fuel and damage your catalytic converter. For most consumers, that’s good enough for reliability. People consider it totally acceptable that a smog technician tells you that your car cannot be driven over a mechanic.
It's good to offer consumers choice and all but IMO the real reason Toyota is consistently successful is their decades long reputation for being a reliable brand is paying dividends.
My girlfriend had a 2018 CR-V for 5 years, 0 issues. She sold it back to the dealer for $1500 less than what she paid for it.
I agree with you on interior quality and fit and finish. Hers was perfect inside and out. Body panel gaps were robot perfect. Decent quality materials on the interior, too.
My new Highlander, in comparison, looks like it was assembled by drunk toddlers and its interior is of Hasbro quality materials.
I feel like Toyota is intentionally doing this to push people up to the Lexus brand.
The reason is price. They keep the price low by skimping on interior plushness while keeping the mechanicals reliable.
Not enough performance to be that tempting to do anything dumb, tons of space for friends and stuff, go anywhere, sleep in it, easy to maintain… Bumpers were rusted to hell but it had a sunroof and you could roll the rear window down so we were having a great time!
When I learned that 2025+ Camry's are ALL Hybrids, it just made sense...
Boeing and Airbus had a similar situation - increasing passenger numbers to Airbus meant “we need to build giant planes like the A380” (now essentially dead). To Boeing it meant “we better build planes that can service smaller airports because they’ll become increasingly important”.
Mind boggling how the wrong interpretation of the market situation leads to decade-defining trajectories for companies.
Quite the hyperbole
https://www.tesla.com/findus?v=2&bounds=57.17077853489991%2C...
Audi, BMW, Ford, GM, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Mazda, Mercedes, Nissan, Rivian, should I go on?
I think this fear of hoards of non-Tesla cars stuffing up the Superchargers is way over hyped. Plus, they are continually building more and more charging locations. Finally, my car is really good at rerouting to a different Supercharger if one is busy or scheduled to be busy. So far, the fears haven't come true.
But given the insane comments coming from their leadership it seems likely that they're going to get sideswiped by Chinese EVs (and PHEVs) flooding the market at some point and simply not see it coming. So good for society in the short term but bad for Toyota (and Japan) in the medium term.
For me though, EVs just aren't actually better yet.
Tesla came close but long term their reliability and vendor lock-in issues mean that they're never going to work like a 10-20 year old Civic, Corolla, Transit etc which ruins the value proposition.
I have no doubt that they'll get there, but they have to be a strict improvement on a 30 year old ICE car first.
Also, why do you need a throwaway to say that you prefer ICE to EV?
And aren't they all throw aways?
I don't prefer ICE to EV. I actually prefer electric vehicles. When Ford release an electric Transit with the range and payload of my diesel one, and when the cost of electricity at a rapid charger is comparable in the UK, I'll switch in a heartbeat. It'll be brilliant.
They are better, but not necessarily much better. A Toyota Prius Prime can get 39 to 44 miles in electric mode [1]. That's good enough for the average person's daily commute or weekend errands, which constitute the vast majority of the miles driven by people. The end result could be a reduction in emissions by 95%. Not 100%, true. But that 100% reduction of an EV is mostly a shifting of emissions to some central power plant, and since electricity is fungible, one can't really say that that particular power plant is solar. In other words, the difference between the overall emissions of an EV vs a good plug-in hybrid (like the Prius Prime) is negligible.
[1] https://www.toyota.com/priusprime/features/mpg_other_price/1...
The Toyota Prius Prime exists today. Switching to renewables is something that is happening today, but we'll be lucky if it will be done in 20 years.
But 20% of us would rather not wait around for recharging on our longer roadtrips / commutes, in which case a hybrid drivetrain just makes sense.
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Related to "snarkiness" : let's agree in no absolutes... nothing is 100%, except death and taxes.
One can’t say that a particular energetic electron was energized by a solar plant, sure. But one can look at new power deployment and see that almost all of it is non-CO2-emitting, a large majority is renewable, and more than half of it is solar. [1]
Over the past decade the US has turned over roughly 1-2% of generation capacity annually, and grown by about 1% annually [2]—but those numbers are accelerating: in 2023 we grew about 6%. [1]
Totally plausible that we’re at the start of an S-curve here; the grid is certainly not getting dirtier, and with an expected life of > 10 years an EV purchased today will be quite a bit cleaner by EOL based on charging power source alone.
[1]: https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/chart-near...
[2]: https://www.publicpower.org/resource/americas-electricity-ge...
I have joked, since 2016, that Tesla will be among the largest donators of intellectual property [to other vehicle manufacturers incorporating their ideas]; but that ultimately hybrid drivetrains like Toyota's are a better solution for most long-distance travelers.
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Dear Tesla:
Thanks for all the R&D.
Infamously yours,
—Prolly
I own a variety of cars, and do still have some ICE cars, but for almost every use case, I prefer my model Y. As to reliability, n=4 narrative, I've owned a Tesla of one sort or the other since 2018 or so, and two Nissan Leafs since 2015 and here's the full list of repairs and dealer visits I've needed: Tesla Model 3 Dual motor charge port won't auto close after open. Nissan Leaf Gen 1 window button needed replacing. That's it. By comparison my Toyota vans have had roughly ten service calls / dealer visits in the same period.
If you read through most reports on Tesla reliability, generally initial build quality is the main complaint. Electric cars are mechanically super simple, and this is a daily benefit for any driver of an EV.
To my mind the 'strict improvement' rule at this point needs to be doing a lot of work when you compare to a 1998 civic. Do you include smell, window seals, oil consumption, power, lane departure warnings, pre-braking in case of emergency, highway passing acceleration, ...?
The relevant data here would be how valuable are Teslas after 20 years and 250k miles? Because when I buy a Toyota, I am pretty confident I will still be able to use it, or sell it for a decent amount.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1b0ae5a/tesla_tr...
How many oil changes is that? lol
Personally my Model S had all sorts of issues, I sold it before the warranty period ended as I knew that I didn't want to pay dealer prices for everything and deal with the bottlenecks.
I just can't see a Model S actually being on the road when it's 15-20 years old because no-one is going to want to pay Tesla prices to maintain it.
The relevant comparison is with a ~2020 Civic i.e. when both cars are 20 years old, which one will still be going.
I am in Toronto and car theft is very common here as our Ports have very lax security. Toyotas top the list for stolen vehicles. And Teslas are the least stolen vehicle. I wish Toyotas were harder to steal.
The smallest generators are around 12KG and put out about 1.1KW but they tend to only run a couple of hours due to small tanks. About double that at 22KG you have something with more reasonable run time and puts out 2KW (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Panana-Aokaidun-Portable-Inverter-G...) and within its typical 6 hour runtime is going to get you 20% and in a 24 hour cycle with refills gets you nearly a full EV. This suggests to charge the car fully you would need about 4 x 4 Litres of fuel, that is 16KG of fuel and 22KG of generator your carting around in the back of the car, its basically a persons extra of weight for one refill which would take about day to complete.
20% or 17.6 kWh can be attained in 9 hours at 2000 watts output with a Honda eu2200i generator. This is the largest generator the average person can hold like a briefcase. Larger generators are insanely heavy.
It's still more powerful that needed so maybe there's something smaller.
(Note that as of this writing products mentioned sibling comments are not diesel)
I'm also curious as to BYD's build quality and longevity of components. Toyota is a known quantity; their vehicles typically run for years with few needs other than routine maintenance.
I've read & watched lots of very positive reviews of BYD hybrids and full electrics based on a few hours' use, or maybe a few days. These cars do look pretty good and are competitively priced in most markets, but they have to be compared apples-to-apples, over multiple years, to get a sense of what it's like to own one.
But with entry-level pricing at less than half of Toyota's least-expensive products, BYD is surely better than halfway "more advanced than Toyota's."
Price point is such an important thing when delivering any product, and if a BYD vehicle lasts even half as long as a Toyota, I'd purchase one.
But in the end the answer is just better charging infrastructure and a bit more power density for less money, it has to be if we want a habitable planet.
And what do you expect from the billions of people in developing countries that aren't going to give a rat's tail about future habitability because they are mostly focused on current survival? Is EV or hybrids and better power and charging infrastructure are the answer there?
I think the only long term solution to a habitable planet is a technical solution that gives us a scalable way to fix the problems emissions cause. I'm not saying to not try and stem the tide where it's possible. But we are not going to stem that tide globally.
I don't have the answer but I hope there are really smart people who see this writing on the wall and are dedicated to finding that long term global solution.
As in it goes that far on a single charge? That seems like a lot of batteries, and a lot of charging power if you can't keep it topped off at home.
Is there any particular reason to expect such a thing to be cheaper than something just using a bottle of liquid hydrocarbons for energy?
1000km of range is not a major selling point for any passenger ICE car. On an EV it is a lot of added weight and expense. Much more important than any range over 500km or so is fast, reliable and ubiquitous charging infrastructure. We don't have that yet, but we are making progress.