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Comment by chubot | Hacker News Reader

Predictions aren't worth much without a bet, but I think the tech will plateau in the next decade, for several years or more, just like it has in the past

One main reason is that I think people underestimate how much work OUR brains are doing when we interact with LLMs. It seems like the initial "wow" has worn off for many people, but definitely not everybody.

For coding, people will get stuck in loops, trying to get LLMs to modify LLM-generated code

And I think the market will cool down, which seems inevitable considering Nvidia's stock price (I'm a shareholder), and the fact that they seem to be the only ones really making money

If you compare Google after 8 years (2004) to OpenAI after 8 years (2023), the business is uh very different

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The problem with LLMs for code editing is that they generate new tokens, instead of performing in place context editing (IPCE). It probably shouldn't be that difficult to just add a final layer that is trained to perform IPCE. Then you would get a lot of the benefits of MemGPT without an external tool. The LLM could go back and only rewrite a handful of lines.

I feel like the space has already plateaued. Lots of improvements up to GPT4 were genuine milestones, but that’s now a year ago and everything since was marginal.

I’m not invested in any sense in the space. I’m actually more frequently turning off Copilot in VSCode recently. I’d like to see further breakthroughs as much as anyone, but am not holding my breath. In fact, shorting NVIDIA seems like one of the better ideas currently.

But couldn’t you have said that 5 years ago and 10 years ago? I’d give it 3-4 years to actually call it.

But if you believe strongly, shorting AI-enhanced stocks is a great way to capitalize on your prediction. You could also use the short as a hedge for your expectations (either way you win something).

There's a real chance of rapid decline as the advance we've seen on GPT3 was largely due to openAI being able to efficiently train it on common crawl but now this data body is getting poisoned by automatically generated content.

I don't see that as a threat just yet. It seems simpler: stock value prices expected future growth. Nvidia has already grown to a highly dominant position. I don't see how it can grow much more to fill expectations of the staggering stock price. I'm expecting more of a regression to the mean soon, with Nvidia losing a bit of their lead.

I have no data or sources to back this up.

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