New EVs Still Can't Beat the Efficiency of a Plug-In Hybrid
jalopnik.com
jalopnik.com
In prior years, they made an attempt to estimate the true fuel consumption and emissions rate of gasoline cars (which is invariably higher than the EPA figures), but in this year's edition they reverted back to the EPA numbers because "To what extent [the prior year practice] is appropriate for new vehicles today is unclear". This makes gasoline cars and hybrids look better than they really are.
They assume that PHEVs drive 50% of their miles on mains electricity. This is, needless to say, a completely bogus assumption.
They randomly add 11 cents per kWh to the cost of nuclear power to account for possible future nuclear accidents. Okay, whatever.
Their "green score" function is heavily skewed to mask the damage inflicted by gasoline cars. The difference between a score of 71 (Toyota Prius) and 57 (Tesla Model Y) is about 0.5 cents of environmental cost per mile. The difference between a score of 30 (GMC Sierra) and 20 (Mercedes AMG) is 1 cent of environmental cost per mile. In reality there is a larger difference between the (bad) GMC Sierra and the (even worse) Mercedes AMG than there is between the Prius and the Tesla, but their "green score" makes it seem like the difference between a Prius and a Tesla is larger.
How is it "needless to say"? The average US driver averages about 38 miles per day. Nearly every PHEV for sale in the US a year ago [1] except for some high end sports cars that sell for $100k+ had an electric range of more of at least half of 38 miles. That makes it at least plausible that the average PHEV will in fact drive 50% of their miles in EV mode.
[1] https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15377500/plug-in-hybr...
"Real-world electric drive share may be 26%-56% lower than assumed within the EPA labeling program."
"Weighting by number of vehicles per model, real-world fuel consumption averages are 42-67% higher than EPA label consumption"
I drive a 2021 Lexus hybrid that gets about 35 mpg (in practice, not what the EPA rating says). My buddy drives a 2001 Civic and gets about 42 mpg. I'm pretty sure that Civic is going to outlive both of us, while I doubt that the Lexus is going to last a decade.
And for reasons, I'm in the market for a car but don't want to pay EV prices. The PHEVs and hybrids are pretty compelling in terms of price, but their fuel economy leaves something to be desired. They're just too heavy.
With the hybrid getting 53mpg you would need to drive a crazy number of miles to make back the difference, but that crazy number of miles would all be in short trips so I don’t see how it could happen.
My previous car was a 2000 Lexus ES that got 17 mpg. I basically paid for the Prius' loan with gas savings.
I'm also in the market as 10 years is about the max in Wisconsin before everything goes to hell, and I'll probably get another hybrid. My wife had a PHEV for a while but we didn't save any money on fuel as electricity is expensive here.
However, if you take all the compromises of a tiny late-80s/early-90s Honda Civic, it'll do 50-60 MPG.
Prius Prime owner here in CA, and this is especially true here. It’s almost a wash between gas and EV here, unless you have solar. In PG&E areas EVs make zero sense for non-solar customers.
For the record I drive a 2024 ES after test driving basically every PHEV out there and it’s so much more solid and well put together than everything else I drove… I honestly have no idea what you are talking about.
I also drove a 2001 Civic and just helped a friend replace their 2001 Civic with a 2024 Corolla Hybrid. Vastly better car, same size, and not a bad price. Comparing a full size luxury sedan with a tin can that won’t pass current safety standards isn’t exactly helping your argument.
The point is that if you just look at total carbon emissions, modern EVs and hybrids aren't better than old ICE sedans. A big part of the reason is weight, due to safety and creature comforts. What I'm lamenting is that hybrids don't do that much better than ICEs from 20 years ago when it comes to fuel economy - except for some standouts like the Prius.
Meanwhile, most manufacturers are just selling hybrid SUVs and crossovers, or EVs the size of a whale. Some of these cars they're selling have to be hybrids because of EPA mileage requirements, and they're going to struggle to get to where the EPA wants them (which is why Biden rolled back the pace of fuel economy standard changes just a few weeks ago - the manufacturers won't keep up).
Seems like some very shoddy metrics used on this study…
Leaf can’t keep batteries cool enough during charging in hot weather, and can’t preheat them before charging in cold weather.
Leaf and Tesla S are two cars with over a decade of real-world data available, and Tesla’s degrade 1-2% per year, Leaf 2-3% per year.
>Real-world electric drive share may be 26%–56% lower and real-world fuel consumption may be 42%–67% higher than assumed within EPA’s labeling program for light duty vehicles.
https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/real-world-ph...
Seems like being able to pin the generator at optimal revs should make up for the inefficiency of the electrical losses? But not sure.
The fuel economy does not actually sound very good, but presumably it's intended for use mainly as a plug-in EV that is suitable for longer journeys too.
If you after theoretic long trips - buy EV with 300-mile battery pack or straight up gas car. Your actual TCO will be lover in either case.