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Comment by leereeves | Hacker News Reader

Where do you think Tesla stock would be without Musk? Would it have gained over $500B in value over the last 6 years?

> if you sent 1000 gamblers into a casino with 1000 dollars, a dozen would come out with 1 million.

No. The odds of winning a 1000x return in a casino would be less than 1 in 1000, and you'd be lucky if one of them came out with a million (as the others lost it all).

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Farther ahead. Musk has messed up so much it’s unbelievable. He promised $25K cars and FSD and instead got distracted by Twitter and instead shipped an overpriced truck. He’s suing OpenAI for going off-mission but that’s also exactly what he’s done.

He also keeps messing with the residual value of the cars people bought and I, for one, love my Model Y but would never buy anything from Musk again. That said, I would also not buy any EV that connects to any other charging network, so Tesla the company can build great stuff but he keeps the company off-kilter.

Musk makes big bets. 1000x bets, as GGP said. You can't expect all of them to work out.

If you ask for a CEO who would keep the company on a steady course, you'll get a CEO who doesn't make those bets.

Actually it might be time now for Tesla to switch to that CEO. It's hard to imagine another 1000x bet paying off for Tesla from its current value.

But that wasn't the case in 2018 when this pay package was decided, when Tesla was valued at only $50B (and that value was already factoring in high growth expectations).

The products were already designed and in the release pipeline at the time. He's done very little since. In fact, all his bad actions started around then.

Elon is longer the person who set Tesla on the 3/Y path. And Tesla couldn't possibly have delivered less innovation (vs operations) since the 3/Y.

Personally, when I see how hard most of the other manufacturers have struggled to meet product/EV outcomes Tesla set 5+ years ago.. I think of the lost potential of Tesla considering they haven't kept pace with their own standard since Elon lost the plot. Maybe the $25K car-to-come is up to par, but not if the Cybertruck is to go by.

This is an unhinged rant. Covid happened for one. Battery and part supply constraint happened as well.

25k is coming as they said. Tesla has no debt and a ton of cash and no real competition in thier segment.

None od this was true when musk was offered this package. Idk what younwould be upset about. The stock is up 10x since he was offered this package.

"25k is coming as they said."

Don't believe what Elon says. Only what he/they delivers.

Also, per the market: 5 year +850%, 1 year +6%. Market maturity, or Elon immaturity?

Neither. Stocks move up and down. Their revenue was like 5xing with also zero stock movement, and this is way before he did any sort of controversial tweet. Stocks are irrational. They zoom up when they want, and fall off the same.

Ya, ya, and full self driving is already here too, right?

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