Scientists get closer to solving chemical puzzle of the origin of life
washingtonpost.com
washingtonpost.com
By their very nature, the easier steps will be understood first. Understanding them therefore doesn't say much about how the hard the overall process is.
An analogy is those collect-all-the-letters games one sometimes sees from grocery stores or fast food restaurants. If you collect all the letters in some phrase, you win a big prize. When you start playing the game, the letters come quickly, and the phrase fills in promisingly. But there's one letter that never seems to show up. The contest ends and your phrase is still incomplete. What happened, of course, is that all the letters except that one were just distractions. That one letter was very rare and controlled how many times the prize would actually be awarded. The contest exploits the unconscious bias that the letters have to show up with the same probability. They're all just letters, right? There's a feeling that when you get a letter you're closer to winning, but unless it's that rare letter you're not significantly closer at all.
In any case, you seem to be assuming that the most important part is still missing, but do you actually know?
Just because you understand something doesn't you it's easy or hard.
Or to use your letter game: You got an E, without knowing the phrase you don't know if it's a rare letter or a common one, especially if even don't know the language of the phrase.
If it occurs under a wide variety of circumstances at a high rate, it's easy.
If it involves an extremely unlikely set of circumstances, it's not easy, and will be hard to replicate.
This has interesting implications for possibility of life in places like Enceladus or Europa--places that may not have any isolated areas for these chemicals to interact over long periods of time.
If you read between the lines, I know this sounds like an argument for creationism, but it's because I'm an atheist that I find the question so frustrating/compelling.
Yet, if nothing existed, there would not be anyone asking the question. This doesn't actually answer the question, but it is funny to think about.
Many years ago I read a non-testable hypothesis that stuck with me. What is the simplest, most parsimonious explanation for why this universe exists? The most extreme end of simplicity would be that every self-consistent set of axioms forms the universe that can be derived from it.
For example, a universe may exist consisting only of the empty set. Another universe may consist of the natural numbers up to 42.
Our universe, with a significantly richer set of axioms, has led to an abundance of the hydrogen atom. And we all know that hydrogen is a colourless gas that, if left to its own devices in sufficient quantity and for long enough, progressively transforms and starts thinking about itself.
This is called the Anthropic Principle. I believe you can take it further, in that universes that develop intelligent life may develop the technological capabilities to create new ones (e.g via powerful colliders).
See also this review: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/PL00006261
They essentially propose that RNA molecules would be ligated to a small number of amino acids and would then use them for catalysis, and from there evolved the ability to create proteins that are not covalently bound to RNA. So this bridges the RNA world with the RNA-peptide world, and from there it's much easier to conceive of how we arrived at modern biology.
There's a good reason to think that this was the path, since in all organisms today, tRNAs are ligated to single amino acids during translation.
Then I want to know the role of disruption in the emergence of us (intelligence). Randomizers cataclysmic events, plate tectonics, seasons, lunar tides, epochs, and so forth. Would evolution have stalled had there not always new niches being created? Should SETI be focused on planets (in the goldilocks zone) which have had pretty rough histories?
Of artificial intelligence Humanity may well set the stage
For its own demise Once the exponential rate of intelligence
Reaches critical mass There will be no turning back And all of mankind will be exterminated
The human race, who, for centuries
Have looked to the stars for answers
Have always questioned
Whether or not God exists
He does now"