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Loss causation is described here [1] as the major factor influencing the sentencing range, so if all investors are made whole then a modest sentencing could be possible. It was also discussed in a recent Matt Levine newsletter.

[1] https://digitalcommons.du.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=10...

Especially when a lot of the "lack of loss" is due to the speculatory appreciation of cryptos as a whole, not due to anything on SBF's behalf. If crypto had crashed, they could equally be looking at almost nothing.

That is very much how all criminal laws work.