Marketing, Gate pitch, Metal Pitch, Year
7nm, 60nm, 40nm, 2018
5nm, 51nm, 30nm, 2020
3nm, 48nm, 24nm, 2022
2nm, 45nm, 20nm, 2024
1nm, 42nm, 16nm, 2026
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_nm_process
> The phrase "7 nm" does not refer to any dimension on the integrated circuits, and has no relation to gate length, metal pitch, or gate pitch; since at least 1997, "node" has become a commercial name for marketing purposes that indicates new generations of process technologies, without any relation to physical properties. However, the smallest dimension within an individual transistor, the fin width, can sometimes be 7 nm. TSMC and Samsung's "10 nm" (10 LPE) processes are somewhere between Intel's "14 nm" and "10 nm" processes in transistor density.
Occassionally a given process will correspond to actual sizes but it's more out of luck than anything else.
The divergence is because when FinFET layout was introduced, it gave as much of as improvement as a node shrink would have otherwise done.
See also: AMD Athlon "3000" CPUs, clocked at only 2.x GHz, performing "as well as an equivalent" 3.0GHz Intel CPU,
But the step from 2 to 1nm shrunk gate pitch to 93.3% instead of the suggested 50%, a large 87% marketing hype. Or viewed as a shrink by only 6.7%, it's a whopping 600+% hype.
Today, the industry has regressed to hyping tiny incremental gains in narrow sub-metrics which only rarely have a material impact on overall performance across an entire system or most applications and usually at higher cost. Those that entered the industry in the last 15 years don't really appreciate just how much progress has slowed to a crawl.
Sadly, looking at the ten year roadmap projections from the likes of IMEC, there aren't any big leaps on the horizon. Progress will come mostly in single-digit percentages and most gains will be increasingly conditional (eg limited to one logic type or only in certain contexts). And the costs are going to keep skyrocketing. I hope we'll "get lucky" with some unexpected breakthrough but there's no reason to expect that.
Except latency. RAM (uncached) latency managed maybe 3x (250ns in the 80s to sub-100ns these days)?
The only really significant latency improvement is spinning-disks to SSD.
We could probably get 2x as fast even today in multithread if we want but software hasn’t kept up in demand.
Instead, we are likely to start to get 2x as fast in AI accelerators every 2-3 years.
I can't wait for the day when marketing nanometer figures blow right past atomic size and we're measuring feature sizes in quarks. By the time feature sizes DO actually get close to atomic size from an engineering perspective, marketing will be damn near the planck length.
The end result seems crazy now but it's the result a set of decisions that were individually rational, not marketing-driven, at each step.
A table on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2_nm_process suggests:
'20 angstrom (Intel)' ~= 2 nanometer (industry)
Process Gate Metal Year
7 nm 60 nm 40 nm 2018
5 nm 51 nm 30 nm 2020
3 nm 48 nm 24 nm 2022
2 nm 45 nm 20 nm 2024
1 nm 42 nm 16 nm 2026
However note that the feature size barely shrinks between 2 nm and 1nm. I'm not sure what size Intel will go with, but offhand this might be close to the limits of silicon as we know it. I'm not sure where things will get pushed in the quest for further progression.Also of note, IIRC some of AMD's presentations around when Ryzen launched involved mention that cache / memory (and maybe some other features?) on CPUs weren't scaling down effectively past 7 ~ 5 nm, which is one of the reasons GPUs had the cores and then external memory controllers. I know automakers and a bunch of other consumers that would like bulk (cheap) products made on modern wafers (300mm) with a semi-modern process that's super inexpensive. Particularly power ICs which would prefer lower leakage even if it means a slower response.
And while decreasing the gate and metal pitch, also the logic gates have shrunk to be smaller (typically expressed by measuring the height of a gate in amount of metal tracks) from 9tracks down to 6tracks.
Changing the transistor from planar to fins, and now hopefully to ribbons with eventually stacked pmos and nmos are a big enabler.
That said, we’re still not hitting the ideal scaling numbers. We’re just doing somewhat better than what’s suggested by poly and metal pitch only.
Standard cell height pitch has a similar story, 270nm height is possible but means high parasitics induced RC delay. For good performance 300nm or higher height pitches are used.
These tables miss a huge context though. TSMC N7 drawn gate length is like 20nm, not 60nm. This pitch includes diffusion (source/drain) and contacts. Biggest limit is interconnect (vias are impossible to shrink as we make them now).
Seriously. I don’t understand why so many people care that the “nm” number is a marketing term. The chip manufacturing processes are now often improving in ways that measuring the minimum pitch doesn’t really capture. So they bump down the number whenever it improves in some other way. It’s that simple.
I have designed a standard cell library. I don’t care what number they use in marketing. If you actually want to know the performance/characteristics/dimensions of the process there are so many other numbers you need to know and you’d refer to the actual documentation.
As an end user customers, all I need to know is that “3nm” is slightly better in performance/density/power than “4nm”, and the label they assign achieves that goal.
Tbh I used to not care until they started lying about power consumption too.
* iPhones count up
* Ubuntu LTS counts YRMO 24 months from April
* Debian counts toy story characters
* CPU nodes count down
Scroll down a bit for a nice overview.
https://read.nxtbook.com/ieee/spectrum/spectrum_na_august_20...