Boeing missing key elements of safety culture: FAA report
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ainonline.com
The five Key Elements of Safety Culture are:
1) Informed Culture- the organization collects and analyses relevant data, and actively disseminates safety information.
2) Reporting Culture- cultivating an atmosphere where people have confidence to report safety concerns without fear of blame. Employees must know that confidentiality will be maintained and that the information they submit will be acted upon, otherwise they will decide that there is no benefit in their reporting.
3) Learning Culture- an organization is able to learn from its mistakes and make changes. It will also ensure that people understand the SMS processes at a personal level.
4) Just Culture- errors and unsafe acts will not be punished if the error was unintentional. However, those who act recklessly or take deliberate and unjustifiable risks will still be subject to disciplinary action.
5) Flexible Culture- the organization and the people in it are capable of adapting effectively to changing demands.
Sources:
https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/Sec103_ExpertPanelReview_Report...
https://www.airsafety.aero/safety-information-and-reporting/...
The opposite of 1-4 could be described as the "culture of lies, ignorance and fear". Fear is a good strategy for getting people working hard (if not always well) and lies make fear universal. Compartmentalizing information is needed to allow more and more functions to be subcontracted. If the company is extracting maximum value from it's assets this year, it has no incentive to report problems that will only appear in the future - by the time the future rolls around, the share holders have their and the shell of the remaining company can be tossed away. etc.
Also, another HN commentator mentioned how eliminating a culture of lies and retaliation is once it's in place. There's never a guarantee that those revealing a problem won't be punished once regulators turn their backs.
And 5 is only useful once 1-4 are in place. Otherwise, it's a culture of flexibly hiding your shit in different places.
Edit: This article was on HN a while back. https://qz.com/1776080/how-the-mcdonnell-douglas-boeing-merg... Key quote: These decisions, made by Boeing CEO Phil Condit, were made with a close eye on the company’s bottom line ahead of a hotly anticipated commercial-jet boom. An ambitious program of cost-cutting, outsourcing, and digitalization had already begun.
If this idea could be explored in depth, and more-or-less codified as received wisdom about market players, it would be a great contribution to management "science" and economics. My 0,02€.
It just confounds me (but explains a lot) that the manufacturer of the aircraft the airlines operate does not share a similar safety culture given that they are in a similar ecosystem (airlines report issues to the manufacturer and the FAA/NTSB all the time)
On top of that, Spirit Aerosystems was spun off so Boeing could demand higher production and lower prices, and fragment their assembly line workforce.
In this environment, when management has been hostile to their workers' unions, how are workers going to feel safe raising a red flag over "minor" production issues? You can't train for correct behavior when the incentives are so far out of alignment.
>> It also noted that employees do not understand how to use the different reporting systems and which reporting system to use and when.
As was noted by the purported insider, re: multiple overlapping systems of record/not-record, Boeing's actual processes themselves are badly in need of overhaul.
This feel like a clear example of where top-down + bottom-up independent read-back verification would have been useful.
I.e. management decides they're going to create Safety Process X using Systems A, B, and C. They do so, then circulate training (top-down). THEN you conduct independent interviews with employees at the bottom, to measure whether the new processes are understood at that level (bottom-up). If results aren't satisfactory, then add additional training or reengineer the processes.
Too often, it seems like this shit gets done at the VP PowerPoint level, and ground reality diverges without anyone noticing.
The map is not the world: interviews with a representative random sampling aren't hard.
Boeing has made numerous missteps in the last 15 years after being the world leader in airliners for around half a century. This only happens when knowledge about how to make a safe product is purposefully discarded and attempts to bring that knowledge back are intentionally ignored. In Boeing's case, it's due to desires for increased profits. They are unwilling to learn these lessons because it costs money that _may_ be there at quarter's end.
No sane organization would ever implement this. If someone repeatedly makes mistakes, they're going to get fired even if the mistakes are unintentional. Anything else is going to cause more safety issues in the long-term as inadequate employees are allowed to proliferate.
There are always going to be some level of "inadequate" employees, and also perfectly adequate employees that sometimes make mistakes in any organization and if your organization requires that no employees ever make mistakes in order to operate safely, then you have serious problems.
The purpose of a statement like that is that you don't just have a post-mortem that is like: "Our company went off the internet because an employee had a typo in a host name. We fired the employee and the problem is solved." When in reality the problem is that you had a system that allowed a typo to go all the way into production.
https://sierrahotel.net/blogs/news/a-life-lesson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Hoover#Hoover_nozzle_and_H...
Punishment culture assumes people naturally do bad, lazy things unless they are deterred by punishment and fear. Therefore we must punish mistakes.
That perspective has long been debunked. You don't see competent, skilled leaders using it. It turns out that generally people want to do well (just like you do), and they don't when they are scared / activated (in fight/flight/freeze mode), poorly trained, poorly supported, or poorly led. They excel when they feel safe and supported.
If you are the manager and the technician makes the same mistake the 2nd or 3rd time, you will find the problem the next morning in your bathroom mirror. :) At best, you have put them in a position to fail without the proper training or support. Leadership might also be an issue.
If your tech gets drunk every day and doesnt do their job, you need to cut them loose. This isn't a management problem.
Sometimes people end up in positions where they are not suited and will continue to fail. If you hired a plumber and you need a doctor, that isnt an on the job training, support, or leadership issue.
That is 100% a management problem.
> Sometimes people end up in positions
I wonder how they got in those positions? That sounds like a management problem too.
Some people are bad fits for positions. They might look good on paper, they might be trying something new, they might lie to get hired, they might change after starting, they might have been a risky hire, or any number of reasons.
The situation is very different if the fuel cans are hard to distinguish vs if the tech is lazy and falsifying their checklist.
Underlying any safety culture is a one of integrity. No safety culture can tolerate a culture of apathy and indifference.
You apply risk mitigation and work verification to resolve safety issues.
Then you recursively repeat that to account for ineffective performance of the previous level of verification.
Ergo, end productivity per employee is directly proportional to integrity, as it allows you to relax that inefficient infinite (re-)verification.
There are no systems that are human proof, and what kind of human behavior is tolerated is a characteristic of the system.
In fact, there are humans that lie, cheat, are apathetic, and incompetent. Part of a good system is to not only mitigate, but actively weed these people out.
For example, if someone falsifies the inspection checklist for your plane, you dont just give them a PIP.
Why is it important to you?
I see lots of engineers and QA following a elaborate procedures with hundreds of checks, but not bothering to even read what they sign off on, so they can go golf all day.
People seem to think that you can engineer some process flow to prevent every error, but every process is garbage if the humans dont care or know what they are doing.
Every process is garbage is you dont hire workers with the right skills demanded by that process. In an effort to drive down costs, lots of companies try to make up for talent with process, with poor results, for both the companies and patients. you cant replace a brain surgeon with 2 plumbers and twice the instructions.
A lot of bad management is hand-waved as crappy employees (by management - shocking!)
[0]: https://www.controlinmotion.com/news/news-archive/a-little-h...
Did the technician mess up (sometimes true), or were they doing their job in good faith - was it the system/protocol/organization that made the task mistake prone? Did someone else actually mess up but the situation made it look like it's the technician's fault? Does this technician do a task/service that is failure prone? Are there other technicians on other tasks that are far less failure prone? Here the former technician would seem poor, the latter, excellent, but it's a function of the task/role and not the person.
I've been "the technician" - I catch a lot of blame because people know I'm anti-blame culture, so I'd rather take the blame on myself that point my finger to the next guy in line. I'm also willing to take on high risk tasks for the greater good even if they suck and are blame prone / risky. I believe in team culture in this way. If the organization doesn't respect that belief and throws me under the bus, I leave - which is quite punishing for them since they remain completely unaware of a major internal problem. If an organization "sees me" and my philosophy, then together we get very very good at optimizing the system to minimize the likelihood of failure / mistakes.
Imo it's a function of time, company and team culture, severity, and role guidelines.
If an employee makes a mistake but followed process, and no process change occured, that's just acknowledging the cost of doing business imo and would be a unbounded number of times so long as it's good faith from the employee
If they cant read the refueling checklist, they are a bad fit.
Ideally you have system controls to screen and weed these people out too.
Not severity; that sort of thinking is actually part of low-safety cultures. A highly safe culture requires the insight that people don't behave differently based on outcome. In fact, most people can't assess the severity of their work (this is by design; for example someone with access to the full picture makes the decisions so that technicians don't have to). So they couldn't behave differently even if they did somehow make better decisions when it matters.
But, and I'll reiterate the point for emphasis, people make all their decisions using the same brain. It is like bugs; any code can be buggy. Code doesn't get less buggy because it is important code. It gets less buggy because it is tested, formally verified, battle scarred, well specified and doesn't change often.
Maybe impact relative to carelessness/aloof-ity?
I agree that an engineer/person will not behavior differently based on outcomes, but if they know in advance something can have a wide, destructive blast radius if some procedure is not followed, I feel there's a bit more culpability on the part of the engineer. Regardless I don't think I feel I have a sufficient grasp on this concept I'm trying to define so definitely agreed I shouldn't have included 'severity' in the function definition nor any alternative candidate
That's a typical root cause, and is exactly what should come out of good post-mortems.
But human nature is human nature...
In fact, Just Culture in itself provides the justification for this. As the next line says "However, those who act recklessly or take deliberate and unjustifiable risks will still be subject to disciplinary action". A person who repeated makes mistakes is an unjustifiable risk.
But a policy that never provided for the possibility of termination (insufficient maximum severity) is also not desirable.
It's necessary if it's (necessary & efficient & justified); it's never desirable IMHO.
Doing severe things because they are justified is just acting out on a desire or drive - internal anger - but now we can 'justify' the target and feel ok about it. Lynch mobs think they are justified.
No one is designing a formal system that includes lunch mobs. But a formal system of repercussions for employee behavior that does not include firing is an incomplete system.
It’s not that firing itself is ever desirable, but rather that its inclusion in a disciplinary progression is desirable.
All indications here (from the NTSB prelim and the widely reported whistleblower account) are that during rework for a minor manufacturing discrepancy, the mechanics on the shop floor followed bad manufacturing planning / engineering instructions to-the-letter, then the ball was dropped in error handling when the engineering instructions did not match the airplane configuration, because Boeing was using two different systems of record for error handling that did not communicate with each other except though manual coordination.
That's not the fault of the front-line assembly worker not following a checklist.
I thought I was replying more to a parent comment addressing the inability to people go who repeatedly make mistakes, which is acceptable unless they are not following procedures.
And if someone keeps making new original mistakes, revealing vulnerabilities in your processes, I would say that it is a very valuable employee, a lucky pen-tester of sorts.
You described a fantasy world, in the real world everyone makes mistakes, and if the mistakes are punished, then there are no mistakes because no one reports them. That is until the mistake is so catastrophic, it cannot be covered up- that’s how you get Chernobyl or Boeing max
A mistake like "accidentally turning the machine off when it shouldn't be" is a fixable problem.
If someone has attitude like "fuck the checklist, I know better", it is not really a mistake, and that person should be rightfully fired or at least moved to a position where they cannot do any harm.
If it's a really critical role, the training will have realistic enough simulation for them to make countless mistakes before they leave the training environment. Then you can assess their level of risk safely.
Safety is a lot about trust, and there is more than one kind of trust. At a minimum: are you capable of doing this thing I need you to do? Will you do this thing I need you to do?
Goodhart's law also applies, as in the case of the edoor bolts, Spirit intentionally bypassed safety controls to meet performance metrics.
The Mars Climate Orbiter is another example. While unit conversion was the scapegoat, the real cause of the crash is that when people noticed that there was a problem they were dismissed.
The Andon cord from the Toyota Production System wasn't present due to culture problems.
Same thing with impact scores in software reducing quality and customer value.
If you intentionally or through metrics incentivize cutting corners it will be the cost of quality and safety.
I am glad they called out the culture problem here. This is not something that is fixable under more controls, it requires cultural changes.
Challenger too. Multiple engineers warned them about the O-rings. They weren't just ignored, but were openly mocked by the NASA leadership. (https://allthatsinteresting.com/space-shuttle-challenger-dis...)
A decade later a senior engineer at NASA warned about a piece of foam striking Space Shuttle Columbia and requested they use existing military satellites to check for damage. She was ignored by NASA leadership, and following (coincidentally) a report by Boeing concluding nothing was wrong, another 7 people were killed by a piss-poor safety culture. (https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=97600&page=1)
Feeling safe is an illusion that governments try to maintain for their people. It’s one of their biggest jobs. But the illusion has dimensions and it’s hard to keep several going at once.
The fundamental goal is to distinguish between recoverable errors and those that are indicative of poor employee-role fit.
The point is to build a culture where you value teamwork and adjust and learn from failures.
This isn't an individual team problem, this is an organization problem.
It is impossible to hire infallible, all knowing employees.
But it is quite possible to enable communication and to learn from pas mistakes.
When you silence employees due to a fear of retribution bad things happen.
People need to feel safe with calling out the systemic problems that led to a failure. If that ends up being the wrong mixture of skills on a team or bad communication within a team that is different.
Everything in this report was a mistake, and not due to gross incompetence from a single person.
The E door bolts as an example was directly attributed to metrics that punished people if they didn't bypass review. The delivery timelines and defect rates were what management placed value on over quality and safety.
Consider the prisoner delema, which is resolved by communication, not choosing a better partner.
Part of maintaining quality culture is maintaining red lines around integrity.
Like I said above, not all errors are recoverable or honest mistakes.
I work in medicine and a classic example would be falsifying data. That should always be a red line, not a learning opportunity. You can add QA and systemic controls, but without out integrity, they are meaningless. I have seen places with a culture of indifference, where QA is checked out and doesn't do their job either.
Certainly nobody has ever thought about that before. In fact, there definitely isn't a second sentence in the definition of aviation's just culture that is being completely ignored in favour of weird devil's advocacy.
> 4) Just Culture- errors and unsafe acts will not be punished if the error was unintentional. However, those who act recklessly or take deliberate and unjustifiable risks will still be subject to disciplinary action.
Oh wait.
Yes-- this represents formal acknowledgement by a regulatory agency. The hope is that agency can now use this formalization to enforce change within Boeing.
Yes, I know some pension fund somewhere is invested in Boeing. No, I don’t care. Will we ever solve corruption and climate change if we refuse to actually change our ways?
Regarding climate change I have hope, but again, same greed, kind of would dictate that at best we will slow it down.
Whatever you will decide to do with boeing, you will have to make employees, shareholders and numerous clients (incl. Us military) content.
Btw. I own a share of a fund which has shares of boeing. Should I go to jail?
people are greedy
I think that people are far more culturally and historically specific than they appreciate, so I take claims like this (i.e. non-specific ones about human nature and virtue therein) with a massive grain of salt. I agree in the general sense of the word, of course! Whatever you will decide to do with Boeing, you will have to make employees, shareholders and numerous clients (incl. Us military) content.
I totally agree with many of your points re:climate change and hierarchies, but I don't see how that responds to my initial charge: that specific companies that are found systematically guilty of some sort of crime should be forcibly disbanded.What if many of the smart, motivated Boeing engineers would be more productive in a dynamic marketplace of smaller firms? What if there's a warp drive concept lurking in the mind of an underutilized systems analyst deep in the basements of their valley? Investing all these resources, especially public fiscal ones, into a company that has proven again and again to prioritize suicidally negligent, short term, excessively selfish thinking... well, it seems criminally unjust.
TL;DR_1: I don't need him, he needs me!
I own a share of a fund which has shares of boeing. Should I go to jail?
I would separate laborers who have shares as some form of retirement from capitalists who deploy unimaginable sums of money. I know the 1% discourse is tired but the general sentiment is extremely valid: a relatively small group of powerful people pressured the Boeing board to make these decisions. In the paraphrased words of AOC: "..and it's, like, twelve people."Yes, I think the people who lobbied for cost cutting and dividend/buyback programs within the company deserve to be criminally investigated. I am so far from a lawyer and doubt our exact current laws and policies (esp. SEC) would be enough, so the most specific I can get is "charges related to negligence and greed" TBH.
But no, I was being unclear when I said "owners" -- not all owners of any amount of the stock are complicit, other than in a broad ethical-consumerism sense. You're on Hacker News, so I have no doubt at all that you're living your life in good faith.
TL;DR_2: capitalists != investors
> that specific companies that are found systematically guilty of some sort of crime should be forcibly disbanded.
There are limitations what can be actually done to boeing, even if a lot of people agree that boeing is faulty.
It is not feasible to just nuke it from the orbit. (As in, “there was boeing a minute ago, and now there is vacuum”) For example, somehow supply/services to Us military MUST be kept. Maybe restructuring, maybe some execs investigated, maybe penalty, but military must be supplied. (Not disagreeing with the sentiment regarding accountability per se, but implementation must be compatible with current reality)
> You're on Hacker News, so I have no doubt at all that you're living your life in good faith.
Thanks for that, but I would caution you to adjust this heuristic. As I see it, HN is a good filter for tech curiuosity, but it is orthogonal to a lots of things. I’ve read that suicide bombers frequently were engineers.
She is the least knowledgeable person to be anywhere close to a Boeing strategy of change.
And, just like "Eat The Rich" is rhetoric, so is "..and it's, like, twelve people." It's not 12, it's anyone making more than $X00,000, wherever X makes her more popular with her base.
I lost all credibility by quoting a politician I like in a relevant way? Seems like an awfully fragile conception of credibility.
Re:it’s not literally 12 people, thanks, I know. It’s not 1% either. I don’t hate the rich, I hate capitalists; I’ve never had any capital and maintain no empathy for the monsters who do. They do things like defund safety programs so much that planes literally disintegrate in mid air.
If the Jack Welch style of capitalism is failing, it can be changed. For example, there is a national Labor relations board because we don't do this anarchically.
Unless/until Amazon, Starbucks, SpaceX and Trader Joe’s manage to gut the NLRB with their recent legal challenges.
No, they just have to make following a safety culture less expensive than not. For example, by conducting proper audits. If not following safety requirements means that new planes are not certified and the others get grounded before it is fixed, then it is going to get more costly for Boeing than doing it right to begin with.
That's what regulations are for.
And undermining quality is often not profitable. That's because their customers also want to maximize their profits, and a bad plane, one that doesn't last, requires frequent repairs, is unreliable, has a bad reputation with passengers, etc... isn't going to be very valuable. Customers will pay more for a good plane that offers better returns on investment. This is the same for any B2B company. Consumers are a bit easier to fool, especially with good advertising (which is also expensive), but at some point, they too will realize that a brand is worthless.
Outsourcing and building the Max fast led to good numbers at the annual shareholder meeting. Arguably it still does because what is anyone going to do? Buy Airbus? They have waiting lists too.
It can be channeled, directed and mitigated. That is what regulations and regulatory agencies do. Although of course you need to watch the watchers so they don't get captured.
* and even if it were, we channel, direct, and mitigate forces of nature all the time, if not always to great success, or without consequences
I don't cut Boeing much slack, but some of this also falls on the FAA for delegating certain oversight activities to the manufacturer. I assume they do it for manpower reasons (ie there just aren't enough FAA employees to do the job sufficiently).
It is understandable that regulators would take a lighter hand to a company which has shown good ethics — which was historically the case of Boeing (more of an issue if that is because of not being able to handle the load), it's a problem if they go completely hands off.
I don't think the FAA is the sole culprit here either, we've not heard much of non-american regulators. While it makes sense that the FAA would be the primary regulator for Boeing, that regulators would cooperate internationally, and that non-primary regulators would have to be careful e.g. around the risk of being called out for trade restrictions, I still feel non-US regulators should have been a lot more involved with and suspicious of Boeing following the MCAS mess.
If you ask a company, any company, what the most important aspect of their product is, they’ll proudly crow “the quality of it.”
And yet, we still, for some reason, have to deploy the FAA to make sure profits didn’t take a front seat to not killing hundreds of people.
The FAA shouldn’t need to exist. It only does because private industry _never_ holds up its end of the bargain. It’s a race to the bottom. Unfortunately it’s not just consumer products that eventually get enshittified, it’s also big things that can kill us (737 Max 8s and Tesla autopilots apparently).
No, just make it very costly to have quality lapses. Capitalism takes care of the rest. When it's effective government regulation makes companies pay for costs that would otherwise be externalized.
That said, I hope to god you’re a socialist lol. The stance “capitalism inevitably leads to corner cutting, but it’s still the best we’ve got” would have the potential to literally break my mind with consternation.
Not sure if confirms the cause of those issues or where/when the infection took hold.
Spreading manufacturing all over the US is also more to do with getting kore congressional districts “pregnant” than with national defense. In war you want multiple, as in redundant, supply lines so if one is cut, you can source matériel from somewhere else. What we have is multiple, as in single point of failure, supply lines. Lose one and everything collapses.
Everything Wendover Productions makes is so helpful!
so who is opening bets that this was at least partially intentional?
Quite often when there are overly complicated reporting pipelines and people not knowing how to use them is because the company doesn't want you to report because that leaves a paper trail which could screw them over if they ignore it and something goes wrong.
They didn’t do what you asked. They found a way to cheat. And worse, their coworkers and reports know what they did, and see them getting rewarded. The “morally flexible” copy, and the boy scouts leave, or burn out.
That cheating was not engineers cutting corners to please management, it was engineers at the very top of management deliberately ordering the organization to cheat.
The TDIs involved with Dieselgate shipped with no adBlue tank. VW claimed to have some special process where they could catalyze the soot without the nitrogen supply to manage it. But that was all a lie.
Adblue (the accepted solution) wasn't added until 2014 at the earliest. The naughtiest thing they did was that the vehicles detected if they were being run in inspection mode, and adjusted the fuel mixture to avoid exceeding particulate emissions. They may also not have been telling people to refill the tanks on cars that had them, but actively circumventing EEA/EPA compliance checks was what infuriated governments.
Are there any other US companies today that could ostensibly be viable alternatives to Boeing's spot 20 years from now?
Electric-first-and-only was the differentiator for Tesla vs big three... what differentiator will it be in the aero industry?
In the US we have Cessna and Gulfstream, and in Canada we have Bombardier which designed and sort of made the CSeries/A220 in Alabama in conjunction with Airbus.
The whole Bombardier CSeries fiasco was basically Boeing using the US government to try to kill Bombardier because they had managed to put together a plane that was very competitive with with the 737-MAX in a number of categories. The takeaway though is that it is possible, with significant government support, for a small jet manufacturer to put up a feasible competitor to Airbus/Boeing.
The Alabama A220 production started while Bombardier was still a partner which is why I used past tense "made" and "sort of"
Bombardier now makes no commercial jet aircraft. Zero. None. They still make a few general aviation jet aircraft, but that product line is also dwindling. They completely stopped production of all their Lear products in 2021.
Both are wholly owned subsidiaries of their respective parent corporation ownership chains, and are commonly known by Cessna and Gulfstream.
Bombardier competes in the same segment as Cessna and Gulfstream and designed a plane that is actively in competition with the 737.
A lot can happen in a century, especially when the government puts its thumbs on the scale, which is the rule rather than the exception when it comes to commercial passenger planes.
Combine all that with the inherently high costs of running a commercial airline manufacturer, and there just isn't enough demand to support more companies in the space. Changing that would require huge technical breakthroughs, or fundamental changes to how passenger air travel works. Neither of those seem to be likely in the near future.
Hired an experienced propulsion guy away from Boeing to run the show. https://boomsupersonic.com/team-members/scott-powell
They are not going to be able to do it, my opinion. There are very few people in the world who have deep experience doing 3D CFD on supersonic turbofans, I've talked to a few of them and none have been headhunted. The will need good analysis work, they are asking for a LOT out of a single stage fan. They certainly will not have the metallurgical research and manufacturing technologies of the engine manufacturers to use. But best of luck to Scott, his Porsche GT3 was getting kind of old and needs to be upgraded to the latest model.
But dor sure, said Boeing hire will be royaly paid for his service, good for them. And good for Boom, a prominent Boeing hire will make fundraising so much easier.
But sure, as if building a new commercial airframe manufacturer isn't hard enough, becoming a new jet engine manufacturer on top of that is a winning strategy...
However you would be completely mistaken to think that Boeing, and Airbus, and my friends down there with Embraer, do not have people who actively pursue and develop the core technologies needed to develop, analyze, and test all types of turbine engines, even if they do not result in market products. It is a necessary tool in order to evaluate offerings from the different competitive engine vendors. And at the senior level of engineering, there is basically a revolving door between the airframe manufacturers, the engine manufacturers, and a few of the high-level engineering focused airlines. People are constantly jumping around between them, there is a lot of cross-pollination going on.
The last time they actually developed something is quite a while ago. And managing engine suppliers, and component suppliers only gets you so far in developing the engines yourself. And we are talking super sonics ones.
Civilian super sonic airframes so are novel, nobody did that since the days of the Concord and its Tupolev clone.
There is a new heli player trying to start from clean-sheet, called Hill Helicopters.[0] They are building a sleek new carbon fiber fuselage, but what I am wondering about is the fact that they are also making their own turbine engine.[1]
I have assumed that their new turbine is the hardest part of their plan, am I correct in that assumption? Is it crazy, or not crazy, that they are trying to do this themselves?
The engine itself is a fairly standard centrifugal compressor design, not particularly challenging from an engineering, or material science standpoint. But with no new technology being brought to the table, there is no performance reason roll your own engine, and you are going to have to beat existing engines that have decades of refinement behind them.
I know of two other companies developing microturbines that are considerably smaller than this in an market where there is no real competition, with some cool new technologies like regenerative microtube recuperating heat exchangers. One of them is in development, one is flying their turboprop and developing their turboshaft.
https://www.turbotech-aero.com/
There is a design/prototyping/manufacturing company called ConceptsNREC https://www.conceptsnrec.com/home that specializes in turbine engine and pump design. They do analysis work for basically every jet engine manufacturer and automotive turbocharger manufacturer, have manufacturing facilities to prototype just about every part of a jet engine, and an extensive testing facility. I would just about bet that Hill has used their services in the design and prototyping of their engine. It's a great place to work if you have a PhD in aerodynamics but want to live in rural Vermont. They also sell a CAD design and CFD analysis software package specific to turbomachinery.
If you like industrial stuff, here's a video of their prototype shop, showing some of the parts they make. My favorite is a tiny titanium impeller for a jet fuel starter system on the F-22, at 3:35. It's about the size of a quarter, and took 40 hours to machine with an 0.020" / 0.5mm diameter ball end mill. I've met both the guys in the video, they are brilliant machinists, but definitely not well polished youtube influencers, lol. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v98_oxqY7E
At the end of the day, it's almost certainly going to be an expensive airline ticket and even if United was (rather inexplicably) touting Boom in their advertising, I'm not sure how many customers there are to pay out-of-pocket for supersonic flights that are likely to be a premium over current top-end seating. I'd love to zip over to Europe a lot faster from the East Coast of the US. But I'm not going to pay as much to save time as I would for the rest of my trip.
It would have to be a horizontal play by an existing company with large amounts of capital and relationships, like a Lockheed Martin or something.
Somebody, somewhere will make an electric jet that is good enough. It will be very destructive for the old manufacturers, for old airports, and for many airliners. It won't need the long airways we are used to so we will likely get more point-to-point like travel to/from city centers (multiple sites for bigger cities).
Longer-distance travel will still remain the remit of traditional jets -- but they will have a much smaller market so there won't be much R&D, except through state subsidies and military contracts.
Such a small group of leaders extracting maximum value for themselves at both the cost of the company, greater economy, AND the US Taxpayer sounds, I don't know... criminal?
Welcome to Techno-Neo-Feudalism. Your superiors are handling their own compensation quite nicely, thank you. Now get back to work !!
This is part of how the FAA vastly reduced the fatality rate in GA. They stopped playing cop and started playing engineer.
In another thread I read that the EASA and FAA used to send Airbus/EASA engineers to Boeing (and maybe vice versa) who could raise all sorts of hell if mistakes were found. Such a setup seems perhaps harder to "game". I do not know this for a fact, I recall it from reading another debate, so take it as hearsay.
But a few chats with employees and a factory tour isn't the most reliable source to judge this.
I read at least two different sets of problems in this report. But first, some background. In the following paragraphs you can substitute "safety" with "quality" in every instance to get equivalent statements that might be more analogous to your experiences.
There is big letter "Safety Culture". This is what happens when you study emergent behavior that you want to replicate, and try to systematize it as much as possible. For excample - as noted in the report, "Safety Culture" consists of 5 pillars - this categorization is purely the result of research and analysis and post-hoc reasoning. The point of "Safety Culture" is that we noticed some organizations that have (little letters) "safety cultures" or "cultures of safety" which were able to achieve long-term excellence in terms of safety, and decided to study their common elements. A company "implements" a big letter "Safety Culture" in hopes of inoculating and maintaining an actual "safety culture".
A Safety Management System is a tool used to achieve and maintain the Safety Culture. For those not sure of what "X management system" means - it's basically a stack of documentation that defines a meta-process and processes that all of your other processes need to conform to, and by doing so, your employees will be forced into "doing the right thing", and aligning their actions and outputs with the goals of Safety Culture, and therefore eventually getting you an actual culture of safety.
In the worst case when you fail at actually sustaining a real safety culture, an SMS then becomes a tool to enforce a minimal standard of safety, from even the most apathetic employee. This comes at enourmous cost of course. Anyone who has had to wait for 3 different authorizations to get a replacement computer at work has witnessed an analogous situation.
Another point that's relevant is that the "Safety Culture" model that Boeing (and ICAO) is referencing is acutally quite young compared to Boeing's overall age. The Safety Culture references in the report are from 1997. The first edition of the ICAO Safety Management manual is from 2006. Boeing has been building safe plans for decades before these "new fangled" capital letter things have even existed. It's absolutely possible for an organization to build safe product without formalized adherence to the formalized "Safety Culture".
Back to problems identified in the report:
The first is that Boeing rolled out a new Safety Management System (SMS) in the last 5-8 years, along with adopting "Safety Culture" policies. But they seem to have blotched the roll out. The report notes that Boeing has its legacy policies and processes for dealing with safety, and those continue in parallel to the new policies and procedures defined in their SMS. They also noted that employees were skeptical of the sustainability of the SMS - ie, they were not sure if this was just some management fad. Many of the findings about "lack of knowledge" read exactly as I'd expect from someone who apathetically clicked through an online training module because they assumed it was useless fluff, because all the real work they've ever seen was handled through legacy processes. Note that a blotched roll out is not the predestined result, even in an environment which was previously lacking a real safety culture, or even middling management.
This is a problem, but could maybe be tolerable (from the perspective of short-term safety), except for the fact that it seemed that that legacy backbone has been rotting away in terms of its effectiveness. The dual system surely isn't helping with its effectiveness.
In other words, while this report focuses on Boeing's failure to achieve "big letter" Safety Culture, reading between the lines also implies a general lack of actual safety culture, and a lack of competent change management.
Having worked in the (network) Security domain for some time, the same thing there. When things are going well, "what do we pay you for?", and when they turn catastrophic, "what do we pay you for?"
"We don’t ‘sell’ safety; that’s not our business model." -Boeing CEO
ref: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2019/10/30/when-compa...
That being said, I think the purchase of several commercial aircraft liners (and the pilot/crew training to go with it) is more than anything a true long term commitment. Safety is one thing, reliability is another. Boeings shtick always was to go for old and tested technology. That had some appeal. But nowadays you can't help but feel that Airbus went with the times and evolved what planes are while Boeing forgot how to do them.
To Boeing, planes need to be safe enough to not cause airlines to cancel orders or result in excessive fines from the government. Any additional safety is waste. The optimal number of people killed is higher than 0 when trying to maximize profits.
As Mike Rowe says, "Safety Third"[1]. The need to make money is first, then willingness to assume risk, and finally safety.
[1] https://mikerowe.com/2022/03/the-origin-of-safety-third/
That doesn't mean they don't take measures to improve safety, just that it's not able to override all other concerns. It's ultimately up to the people who are put at risk to manage their own safety & decide which risks to take, that cannot be entirely delegated to the organizations putting one at risk! "Safety First" encourages dangerous complacency on the part of the people bearing the risk.
I should have inc the relevant quote(fixd). Anyway, that was my understanding. But in my linked article, Boeing's CEO corrects me:
"We don’t ‘sell’ safety; that’s not our business model."
This is his day job after all.
The FAA doesn't seem to take any notice of Boeing's business model.
The fact that Boeing doesn't think it's their business doesn't mean that nobody thinks it's their business.
His work at Boeing is so well regarded that investors couldn't wait to firehose capital his way.
ref:https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/forme...
Boeing's CEO is what success looks like.
That sort of long term outcome is fairly irrelevant to the people in control. Short term profits are what matter. Burn and bail.
After enough years of profit-taking by burning thru hard-built assets - you have the only long term success that matters (to the people with control).
A classic case of "putting all your eggs in one basket."
The Boing might actually be too big to fail but their failure, IMHO, looks like what we have today: An inability to make high quality cutting edge aircraft. For the USA, the disaster would be to be reliant on EU/Russa/Brazil/Canada/China for conducting its transportation operations in this massive country.
What happens if people start freaking out when their planes are not Airbus? Would increase in government contracts keeping the stocks and profits the same mitigate the problems?
So maybe Boing has failed already, its just that its still institutionally solvent for one reason or another.
Things get lost all the time. People move on, retire, machines require maintenance and remanufacturing, IP might describe an end state but not how to get there. Some say Boeing itself is an example of this after the MD merger.
Given that they are largely not responsible in delivering the value that will ensure continued success of the company, signal that risking the lives of people is not a good business strategy, and may act as a wake up call for others in leadership positions that they should be leading towards what is best for customers and the business and not what is going to give them the biggest short term payday.
Call me a cynic - but isn't an organization like Boeing designed to diffuse responsibility, so as to shield the guilty behind corporatespeak ? Sure you can subpoena millions of pages of documents and countless emails, but then the sheer size of the legal effort threatens to defeat the entire idea of assigning responsibility.
Boeing has had cultural issues for a while now, part of their rocketry division was forced to be spun out (by the government) with Lockmart's into ULA because Boeing was caught conducting espionage on Lockmart, which would've potentially disqualified them from bidding on launches. They had also had information leaked to them about bidding on the Artemis lunar lander contracts.
Plus other incidents like trying to get people at ULA proposing things like orbital refueling systems fired because if they allowed such technology to emerge, Boeing couldn't get blank checks from the government for building near-useless rockets.
That last one, in my opinion, making it clear that they're exploiting the perception that they're too big to fail.
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/forme...
He’s probably hireable so long as there’s no culture of safety or engineering to be destroyed.
I mean, it's far less paradoxical than it sounded at first.
The E-4 and VC-25 aren’t really a fair one; you don’t need the divisions to be the same company for their integration (though I suppose it would make it vastly cheaper). We also don’t fly many at all (meaning cost per unit is relatively inconsequential).
I also somehow always forget the tankers. Thanks for that.
I’ll still maintain the links aren’t necessary. I honestly think a dedicated military platform for all of those would have been a smarter investment and that the current way of modifying airliners is suboptimal.
It's just a ton of financial risk. I guess the new supersonic startups like Boom think they bring enough novelty to the market to justify that risk.
I do wonder why the heavy lift platforms won’t work (C-17, etc.).
It’s that keeping capacity for one of the leading forms of global travel is a strategic interest. Don’t let your conspiracies get in the way of the obvious.
Also I feel like the rail circle jerk is so unearned. Last time I was in London it cost 100 pounds to fly to paris from London downtown airport and 600 to take the Chunnel. How “superior”.
Is tying a particular activity to "national interest" itself a form of paranoia? What about passenger aircraft is a strategic interest? For example, the US seems to do ok with little large-scale shipbuilding outside military concerns. People seem to take cruises from the US in ever-larger cruise ships without a domestic capacity for building them.
Additionally, no disagreement on my part regarding the high regard people have for hypothetical rail. On the other hand, I'm open to the idea that high capacity terrestrial transportation similar to rail would have cause to improve if airplanes weren't in an optimization sweet spot.
Note the senate investigation report that describes an “organizational disaster” that caused the failure. Don't assume competence because of size and persistence.
The US Military is absurdly competent at what its mission is, war fighting and logistics. What it is not competent at is things that are not yet internalized as part of that mission. Unfortunately non visible logistics (software) hasn’t made that cultural shift yet, and once it does will take a long time to breed the institutional competence that the military leans on, primarily due to the compensation gulf.
'Wasting' 5 billion out of an 842 billion dollar budget, for an organization that doesn't even have to make money, is nothing. Plenty of startups squander even more money, and never accomplish any of the entire point of a for-profit company, making money.
There isn’t a meaningful difference in competence or bureaucracy between a too-big-to-fail company the size of Boeing and a large state institution. The difference would be in who can set the org-wide incentives and goals. Clearly shareholders aren't interested in safety being one of the goals.
Grow to dominate so much of the market and of stock and pension portfolios at all costs, that you'll have to be bailed out no matter your incompetence.
So as long as this behavior only gets rewarded and never punished, why would you expect different results?
That's the harm that monopolies do to society and yet somehow they have been even incentivized in recent times.
Elon has a great diatribe describing how the big automakers largely broke down and outsourced most parts manufacturing just became system integrators and customer support. In the short term, this is great for the bottom line, but it hollows out the engineering culture and make it extremely difficult to innovate. Imagine trying to get 100s suppliers to make small tweaks to each of their parts. Also, imagine when you need multiple suppliers to work together to build (NDAs, IP agreements, etc). You get buried in bullshit
Great companies are generally lead by R&D (product, science, engineering) with strong finance / process acting as gravity to keep the company grounded & functioning. When finance / process take over, then gravity will dominate and you crash
For a company that purports to be an energy storage and generation business (with cars as an initial application), Tesla remains hugely dependent on their own suppliers. Panasonic occupies a major chunk of Tesla's own Gigafactory and has repeatedly delayed the production of new cells [0], [1].
[0] https://electrek.co/2024/01/15/panasonic-to-soon-make-new-ba... [1] https://www.reuters.com/technology/panasonic-delays-producti...
https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/24/tesla-4680-battery-prod...
Right now, I can buy US-assembled complete energy storage systems (not necessarily at volume), retail, using prismatic LFP cells, for a lower price per unit energy than the Tesla Megapack.
https://insideevs.com/news/542064/tesla-model3-lfp-battery-p...
> Tesla uses LFP cells supplied by a Chinese manufacturer - CATL, which has basically become a strategic partner with a contract for the next several years.
> Because the LFP chemistry does not offer as high energy density as NCA or NCM, Tesla uses LFP only in the standard range versions of its cars (produced in Shanghai and soon globally). LFP will be used also in Tesla's energy storage systems.
https://www.energy-storage.news/tesla-deployed-nearly-4gwh-o...
https://www.energy-storage.news/tesla-deployed-6-5gwh-energy...
https://carboncredits.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/T... (Source: https://carboncredits.com/tesla-413m-megapacks-revolutionize...)
> Such tremendous growth has been particularly attributed to ramping up Tesla’s Megapack production capacity in its recently built 40 GWh Megafactory in California. The company aims to produce 10,000 Megapacks each year in this factory.
> Earlier this year, Tesla also revealed plans to construct another 40 GWh Megafactory in Shanghai, China to meet the robust demand for its energy storage systems. Construction will start later this year.
https://electrek.co/2023/12/22/tesla-launches-project-build-...
The global market for energy storage is enormous, approaching almost half a trillion dollars by 2030.
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/...
https://www.precedenceresearch.com/energy-storage-systems-ma...
Saying "I'm not worried about this" is like saying you're not worried about a giant truck that's speeding directly at you. The question I'm asking in this thread is whether Tesla has a plan to avoid getting hit by it.
But to continue the metaphor, a great company will have enough forward momentum that at any time they can pull back on the stick, relying on inertia in their supply chain, designs, customer name recognition, and existing capital assets to briefly zip almost straight upwards really, really fast for a short amount of time. If you want an upwards trajectory for 100 years, it won't work, you'll soon stall, but if you want an upwards trajectory for the next quarter it works phenomenally well!
The root of the problem, I think, is that it's really hard to measure long-term assets like culture and trust, but really easy to game short-term metrics by dumping long-term assets.
And hell, Elon almost ruined Tesla with his drive to over-automate manufacturing.
Getting to work 100s of suppliers, not all of which are directly managed by the OEM, together is happening all day, every day in all industries building hardware.
Seriously, HNs ignorance when it comes to real engineering and manufacturing is really frustrating.
As an aside, this is so much so the often used phrase "aerospace grade" whatever, especially on Kickstarters is just bull. There's nothing special in the materials, what they are concerned about is the ability to track every piece to where it comes from.
Depends on the actual use case of course: requirements for safety critical parts are higher than for less critical parts, say part connecting rotor blades to the rotor head had higher requirements than the door handle (both which were actual titanium in one case, and please don't ask why a door handle would be titanium to begin with...).
Generally so, to come back to your question:
I remember three different titanium alloys with different heat treatment we used back then. And at least five different alumium alloys. The Titanium ones were primarily aerospace, and export controlled depending in which form you bought it. And one particular steel alloy, not aerospace specific but also export controlled because it was dual use.
Following procurement, we might do in-house testing before machining (composition with XRF, physical properties with a tensile tester), possibly our own heat treatment (e.g. 13-8PH, 15-5PH, 17-4PH are "precipitation hardening" steels, generally delivered soft), and surface treatment (passivation, conversion coating) before delivering a finished product. None of this is unique to aerospace either, although it's certainly unlikely you'd want to spend the money for it otherwise.
So yes, you procure a different item, possibly from a different supplier, but physically there's unlikely to be any difference in my experience. The exception I'm aware of would be electronic components, particularly semiconductors, which are manufactured using different processes for radiation hardening (e.g. sapphire substrate). Export control like ITAR/EAR aren't really about aerospace but rather restrictions imposed by the US Government.
I took that to heart. Took a case of a switcheroo, mixing items that looked similar but aren't, to really drive the point home.
I find it somewhat impressive in the sense of “wow, they put a lot of not-really-necessary software in here and it still manages to mostly work reliably.”
But the actual critical software parts the make it work as a car are not, in my book, particularly impressive. My first car’s ECU glitched once in the entire time I had it, and I think it was actually quite unusual for a car of that model to have an ECU glitch at all. My Tesla regularly has glitches that affect the ability to start the car or operate systems that really ought to work all the time.
Personally, I suspect we’ve recently entered a new age of cars that depend on electronics much much more heavily than before, and that we do not have great data yet on the reliability of these software systems, and that Japanese mechanical engineering advantages of yesteryear don’t necessarily mean they have good software, nor does it compete with bad software.
Apple outsources manufacturing and it’s doing just fine. Has not hallowed out their engineering yet.
Great engineering culture doesn't mean a lot if can't sell your product.
I was reading a story about the decisions made by miners in UP Michigan in 1912. You know what they did when shit sucked? They walked and did something else for 2 years. They let the equipment rot with intent going as far as to coerce the machine maintainers to cease and desist with machine hibernation procedures.
Jesus, or what the miners in the Appalachians did in 1912. After the mining company refused to deal with a unionized workforce, they were replaced by armed guards. The miners got kicked out of there housing, etc. So in response, the miners formed a militia and went to war with the company, like literal war with guns. They got steamrolled by the state guard. But eventually that got them to negotiate a 9 hour workday.
Then they did it again 10 years later, except that time they got steamrolled by the US military, and then the feds threw hundreds in prison for treason.
Prosecuting willful bad behavior at the top that led to deaths might help push the culture back.
Did not Boeing ask for an exemption recently due to a dangerous heat up situation if these heaters were not turned off in time?
Boeing doesn't have a culture problem, they have an idiot problem. The idea that you can hire competent engineers offering salaries like that is absurd.
They need to adopt a pay for performance mentality and bring in managers who are not afraid to fire underperformers.
BA (Boeing’s stock ticker) has been trading sideways this week.
That said I think it’s a bit suspicious when so much of the ownership is institutional investors who seem to just own each other, and appear to work against the very interest of maintaining and growing the value of the investment, which is what one would think being a shareholder is all about.
Because they're getting out long before the stock craters.
Shareholders do not care about companies. They care about making money.
The original sin is paying executives with stocks and especially stock options. It creates catastrophic and corrupting incentive structure.
Their incentive is to raise the stock price long enough to sell some amount of stock options. The company be damned.
There are many examples, but the classic one is Dick Fuld, the CEO of Lehman Brothers. He drove Lehman Brothers into Bankruptcy all while becoming dynastically rich.
It's not about airplanes, it's about human nature.
None of this distributed blame horseshit.
Downstream will fall in place once the correct incentives are in place.
The risk/reward among market forces is entirely different; many lives lost become "the cost of doing business" despite being entirely preventable.
Boeings were grounded in China; while china isn’t the only market imagine decreasing a lion share of value from the largest population country? sure it won’t hit hard but it can hit enough to topple something… and seemingly it slightly has.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/01/24/boeing-delivers-737-max-...
And its just that, the maintenance value I mean literally a dent like that in business trickles down to the bottom, that Chinese market share loss potentially is felt by the engineers and maintenance workers, not the CEOs, etc.