Give an example in 1985 to show there are opportunities today is not convincing.
EDIT: I will say, it may be a powerful story for anybody experiencing self doubt. Different people need different kinds of motivation.
In other words, it is always easy to think it is too late when looking back. But it is never too late if we try to look forward and imagine the things that have not invented yet and which will be around in 10-20 years time.
Marc Andreesen said glibly that Windows was nothing more than a poorly debugged set of device drivers. The technical press parroted it without any follow-through. When Microsoft came out with Internet Explorer, new versions of Excel, Word, and IIS, I knew they would win. Because device drivers are hard, nobody wrote them better, and Windows was good enough for millions of customers.
I think Microsofties low-key regarded me as a bit dull, because they believed the media had no agenda. I simply looked at the (public) accomplishments of my much younger coworkers and trusted my own observations.
To me, it's been "obvious" for the last US$2 trillion of market capitalisation growth that Apple's going to face monopoly investigations; it's "obvious" that Facebook is, in a deep fundamental sense, not even capable of being compatible with GDPR; and it was "obvious" to me in 2009 that the first true self-driving car sold to the general public (by the quality standard "doesn't come with a steering wheel and that's fine") would be around 2019 or so.
There's been a few places I've worked with young energetic co-workers (and I have been a young and energetic coder myself), and… in many cases those groups failed to make enough money and disbanded.
One result of a lifetime of not being able to predict the markets is the realisation, a decade ago, that my preferences in many areas are almost anti-correlated with the modal buyer: I like what normal people dislike or even loathe, and dislike or even hate what they prefer.
Predictions of how it will be are always worth writing down, to see how correct they are.
Microsoft and Apple are huge today, but it's entirely conceivable that both are shells of themselves in a decade's time.
Give up.
Don’t chase a dream.
Just go find some drudgery for a paycheck. Don’t bother saving. You won’t need it.
You never had a shot anyway. Your ideas are stupid. Any time you think of a thing, someone else has thought of it first.
There’s no point in trying to make anything better. It’s all as good as it can possibly be.
Such a perfect world doesn’t need your contribution; can’t be changed by the likes of you; won’t care, even if you do manage to come up with something novel.
You’re too young to be taken seriously, and too late for everything, so why bother?
So get out there and fulfill your failure, and don’t worry about dreaming.
All the dreamers woke up ages ago.
I doubt that people 50 years ago were all rich.
That era represented the collapse of 8 bit microcomputers. They were huge, then nothing. Silicon Valley had boomed, then gone bust. No one had much use for computers except brave financial analysts willing to use the toylike Apple ][ for primitive spreadsheets. No one took the Mac seriously until Postscript and laser printers happened.
In October 1987 Black Monday hit, causing the worst market crash since the Depression. I hit up a bunch of angel investors—a term that didn’t even exist—to raise money for a batch file compiler. A compiler! That supported me and several employees for years.
Point is that you can always make opportunities happen even in hard times.
To me if you’re living in alignment with your values and aren’t too much of a drain on society most of the time, you’re successful.
Just because people though once that situation A was the case while it was actually situation B, and now it seems again that situation A is the case doesn't mean it is necessarily again situation B, only that it might be situation B. It also actually might be situation A. But if it is actually situation B, extrapolating from the past is not a good argument. Doesn't mean that there are no other good arguments.
No regrets at all.
Always?
I work harder than anybody I know personally. I am constantly learning new things. People ask me all the time how I "know this stuff", and that has been true since I was a kid in a desert town in the middle of nowhere that only had a library to learn from.
I have tried many, many ideas and failed. I'm halfway through life now. I've missed many opportunities in hindsight, likely due to my narrow fixation on details. This is an aspect of HFA, which is something I've only recently learned about myself.
I think what you've said is factually correct. But not everyone is equipped to exploit the opportunities that may exist, and may struggle to be aware of their limitations. Furthermore, life doesnt guarantee you anything - luck is always an element.
> Leaves more for people willing to work and to learn things.
> I upvoted your comment out of pity.
Even the hardest working people can luck out and become frustrated. That doesn't change the fact that their best stategy is probably not to give up, but maybe be a bit more empathetic?
I was sure lucky, but I put myself in luck’s way as often as possible. That’s after I got away from home in my teens after years of neglect, beatings, depression, suicidal ideation, and sexual abuse.
Be more empathetic to someone being snide after I made a sincere post trying to offer up some hope in hard times? Fuck that noise.
Things obviously change over time. It's not non sequitur to claim that opportunities have shrunk over time. Bringing up counter-examples of opportunities that existed 40 years ago is not an argument.
I don't know why you think opportunity must be constant. I don't think you would have had much success with your .com startup mentality in 300BC.
> I don't think you would have had much success with your .com startup mentality in 300BC.
Disagree? I’m a survivor. I would have looked around and tried to figure out the best ways not to die and to keep my family safe using what resources I had. Most people are less paranoid than I am and are willing to just get along. My instinct is to get a little ahead so I have a buffer.