There is a bubble in the valuations of LLMs similar to the valuation of NFTs. Anyone can create a modified version of Llama2.
Most of the R&D and Capex going into LLMs/GenAI is speculative. The investments haven’t translated into real revenue yet. The expectation is that there will be a large pot of revenue at the end of the road, but we haven’t seen the killer apps to substantiate this. This makes for a perfect bubble if the promise doesn’t pan out.
Relatedly Nvidia’s revenue - as impressive as the recent growth has been - is fully exposed to this risk.
Of course it’s possible (likely?) that there will be major wins from this tech, but the fact that there isn’t definitive proof (in the form of revenue) yet represents real risk.
Imho, unlike crypto and NFT, AI is not a solution in search of a problem. While there is a lot of hand waving, it is not very adventurous to predict that there will be significant productivity gains by adding AI on top of current business processes. Thus the killer apps will be... the same apps we are using today with a touch of AI magic dust.
Calacanis and Palihapitiya are the Jim Kramers of tech.
There's no doubt the tech community is all excited because genai, indeed, helps write code but I've yet to hear a large company like Coca Cola announce large AI transformation projects the way they announced large cloud transformation projects a few years ago.
I get more and more on the AI bandwagon as time goes on but I still have a pretty healthy skepticism on how deep and wide the tech will penetrate day to day business at enterprises and that's where the ROI is.