> Suppose you were new to the contest and were allowed to put money down on the choice at the point that there were two doors left.
That would be a completely different game. The goat doesn't get reshuffled. The doors that remain are not random and most importantly, you know which door you picked in the first round. It doesn't become a 50:50 chance just because there are two doors, as the goat isn't distributed over those two doors, but across all three.
Imagine 1000 doors. You pick one. In round two you are asked if you want to stay with that one door or pick all the other 999 doors at once. What do you do?