I understand how a bespoke architecture could in theory accommodate larger models and offer better throughput despite being based on older generations of MOFSET nodes. But if that was the case, wouldn't China simply create their own bespoke hardware accelerators? So what's stopping them?
Fabrication.
SMEE is supposedly able to mass produce 28nm lithography machines, but most modern (2016/Pascal onwards) GPUs are fabricated using 16nm lithography or lower (eg. Ampere uses a 7nm process, and there are multiple newer architectures in the pipeline that leverage 3nm fabrication processes at Samsung, TSMC, and Intel).
Chinese companies like SMEE are trying, but it will take 3-5 years to reach 16nm lithography at scale.
Also, GPUs are being limited for simulation (aka Nuclear weapons testing) reasons - not "AI" - as just about every country except North Korea honors the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, forcing countries to test using HPC (edit: also used for Jet Turbine simulation a la Autodesk Federal).
A 28nm process is more than enough to make EWS, Avionics, and Precision weapons, which is what Russia uses to manufacture the Elbus-8s chipset domestically.
This is partially related to why companies like Nvidia has begun moving fabrication to Samsung fabs over TSMC in the short term, as SK has a formal defense agreement unlike Taiwan.
that information seems dated in 2024
You don't need bespoke cutting edge hardware or models for most defense applications (aka to kill people) today.
For example, C-RAMs are using Maxwell level hardware at most.
The biggest driver for GPU, FPGA, and CPU development has been nuclear research, and is a major reason why the top supercomputers and HPC programs globally are usually linked with Nuclear Weapons Labs (eg. LLNL, LBL, Argonne, Oak Ridge, NSC Guangzhou).
It just so happens that you use the same math for nuclear simulations as you would for "ML", bioinformatics, and computer graphics.
It's all Numerical Analysis and Optimization Theory at the end of the day.
> "What we cannot allow them to ship is the most sophisticated, highest-processing power AI chips, which would enable China to train their frontier models," she added.
[0] https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-talks-with-nvidia-abou...
No one wants to say the "Ne" word as it causes some pretty severe domestic political blowback.
Already China has been looking at countering American second strike capabilities with their nuclear weapons buildup over the past decade.
It also doesn't help that unlike most previous Premiers post-Mao, Xi Jinping started his administration career in the PLA.
And then, Sunway happened, it's built for military-use supercomputers. Do we even know whether it's 40nm, 28nm or 14nm or who on the earth fabricated them? And nothing changed on how export control works after that, that's certainly not the trigger.
GPU bans before ChatGPT happened were also targeted, similar to how BIS Entity List works.
Let's face it: the recent ban-entire-China movement was just about "AI", instead of HPC/simulations, the only purpose of it is to deny China NVIDIA GPU access and ensure they can't compete on SOTA language models.
Based on the network bandwidth and clock speed of the SW26010P, my hunch is most likely 40nm [0]
> ensure they can't compete on SOTA language models
I disagree.
For commercial NLP applications, a leading edge GPU like an A100 can help (due to cost constraints), but the true value is unlocked from Monte Carlo Simulations (heavily used in Nuclear Physics to simulate interactions among particles), as bechmacks have show magnitudes of performance in GPUs over CPUs for MC and MCMC simulations [1] just with commercial untuned hardware alone.
This itself was a major reason Nvidia has been working with the DoE since the beginning of the Exascale program [2], which itself was driven by NatSec priorities [3]
Raimondo's ban also came after the WSJ leaked how the CAEP and other sanctioned entities were accessing Nvidia GPUs despite an export ban since 1997 [4][5]
Of course this is dual use, as math is critical to everything, but at the end of the day - Nuclear Weapons is the driving factor and China's ability to erode American Nuclear Deterrence [6] and the fact that China now has a "launch-on-warning" posture [7] since 2022 instead of "on-launch" has severely spooked the US.
[0] - https://sc23.supercomputing.org/proceedings/tech_paper/tech_...
[1] - https://indico.cern.ch/event/1106990/contributions/4991264/a...
[2] - http://helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/nmetut/nmetut_19423...
[3] - https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-group/national-secu...
[4] - https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-top-nuclear-weapons-lab-...
[5] - https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/06/30/2022-14...
[6] - https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/47/4/147/115920/The-Dyna...
[7] - https://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/202...
Far safer, intellectually, to assume everything they omit to be a ploy, and to try to understand (with what limited information we have, comrade), the Real Juice.
i don't think this is correct - https://www.nti.org/education-center/treaties-and-regimes/co... there are 8 other countries that have not signed so why would they honor the treaty?
india in particular.
Last time India (and Pakistan) tested a live nuclear weapon was 1998, and both faced SEVERE sanctions at the time - and was a major reason both countries stopped buying American weapons systems and switched to Israeli and Chinese vendors respectively.
The only country left that tests nuclear weapons live is North Korea
While some lossage is expected, you can't build a Tianhe-2 type supercomputer by smuggling Nvidia (or AMD) GPUs - and a nuclear program needs dozens.
China, Russia, NK, and Iran have very severe hardware import restrictions circa 2024.
This is why Russia, China, and Iran have been building our domestic fabrication capabilities (Russia in the early 2010s, China in the early 2020s, and Iran presently)
Man, wouldn't it be great if we operated a real empire, instead of this optical delusion?
India stopped buying American weapons systems after the 1965 war. The Soviet Union was already supplying more than 80% of all weapons used by India even before the 1971 war.
After the Pokhran-2 tests, the radar+AEW&C sales ended and DEC/Compaq cancelled federal Indian deals at the time, and India based Sales reps for American firms switched to IAI, Elbit, and Rafael which ended up winning IAF deals from then on (some corruption played a role as well in this at the beginning)
A lot of the wing commanders from that era work as lobbyists for Israeli firms now and most of the cream of the IAF, DRDO, and SCL in the 1980s-90s work as mid-upper level Engineering or Product Management in the US now after leaving in the 90s-2000s like my parent's generation.
Rumor is that they had trouble selling it against A100 due to worse price to performance and worse software integration. But the US sanction has now created a huge market for it.
Domestic fabrication is still at the 28nm phase at most.
That said, the Ascend series a fairly massive leap, as it means domestic EDA capabilities have grown massively in China.
That said, I remember they had a massive Design labs in both SV and Delhi+Bangalore that poached from the Samsung, Nvidia, and Intel labs in town before they were kicked out of US+India so idk how much design was done domestically in China.
Allegedly SMIC has both 14nm and 7nm fabs as of last year.
Not to say that Chinese vendors won't eventually crack that nut, but it'll take several (3-7) years. Also, domestic design capacity seems to be somewhat lacking (though rapidly changing)
The most cutting edge domestic lithography tool China has is SMEE's 28nm one - that's still a MASSIVE accomplishment, but still significantly far from 20/16/14/7nm processes.
Even Russia had domestic capabilities for 28nm fabrication at scale in the 2010s.
That said, for most military use cases, this is more than enough.
Edit: this is wrong. They have design capabilities but domestic fabrication is limited to 90nm.