Blue Origin has emerged as the likely buyer for United Launch Alliance
arstechnica.com
arstechnica.com
The more reusable launch providers the better for the industry and for human kind.
SpaceX could cure cancer and he would make a series of tweets about how its not an accomplishment because not every person with cancer is already cured.
For years now he has always used the worst interpretation possible and declared everything SpaceX hasn't done as impossible, and if they do it it suddendly becomes unimportant and something that others have done already done much better. And every prediction on the future is a worst case prediction.
And then he does the opposite for anything not called SpaceX.
He is also not an actual journalist with deep research or even really educated on the topic. His audiance seems to be mostly the anti-Musk people who dont usually care about space but need to say negative things.
He basically a meme, more like somebody playing character. He took the thunderfoot playbook and in order to make money on Musk hate. And yes, there are lots of only pro-Musk hype people around as well, and they are equally stupid.
My personal opinion of Musk is quite different[0], but I do believe that they are not factually lying about the numbers and court documents.
[0] it is much closer to how it is described here https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-elon-musk
For another view of some considerations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoJsPvmFixU
They proposal also requires dozens of in orbit refils and was rashly awarded in very sketchy circumstances by a NASA executive that now works for spaceX
(NASA was supposed to award 2 contracts for X billion dollars, the new budget has only ~200 million dollars so the executive calls spacex to have them ask a lower price)
Overall my impression is that SpaceX/Musk lives on hype ("Success maybe, Excitement guaranteed" cit Musk) While Blue Origin is trying to build something solid slowly (having infinite money helps...)
I do not mean this as a criticism of Musk (the original video is quite scathing). For a good representation of my personal opinion of Musk I would point to the Slate Star Codex review of his biography https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-elon-musk
Except that it wasn't. That's just one of the CSS things that only he actually believes.
> so the executive calls spacex to have them ask a lower price
Except that not actually true.
In fact, a NASA official just recently got fired for this. If anybody had real evidence that this happened, the person responsible for selection would have been fired.
> Overall my impression is that SpaceX/Musk lives on hype
They just launched their 300 rocket and landed over 274 of them. They have many times tested the most advanced engine in the world. They supply cargo and crew transport to ISS. The are the largest rocket and sat operator in the world. This is the literal opposite of 'just hype'. SpaceX has actual revenue, something that actually makes sustainable over time.
BlueOrigin, the company CSS loves to hype because they are not SpaceX are literally just a vanity project. They have no done much yet and the re-usability of their rocket is 'hype'.
It really takes the mastermind delusional CSS to pretend the opposite is true.
Are they? Outside of being staged combustion they aren't that impressive. Their chamber-pressure is still really low. The TWR isn't that great. For a staged engine they are entry level.
Their re-usability is theoretical at this point. The early engines the delivered to ULA are not the reusable version that will later go on New Glenn.
> I see a real chance to be competitive with SpaceX long term.
'competitive' as in actually peer competition, not really.
But I guess they can 'compete' by 'Jeff Bezos is gone finance the company for many 100s of million of $ every month' for the next decade.
Yes, the ones flown on Vulcan do not do relighting. However, we do know of engines BO has test fired where they have tested restart capability.
BO doesn't have a reusable engine until they demonstrate that their engine is reusable.
ULA on the other hand is the opposite, they are just the launcher, they don't build their own engine and in general get most things from suppliers.
But based on revenue of course, BO is nowhere near able to buy ULA. Its literally just more billion directly out of Bezos pocket.
New Glenn will take years to ramp up to any real launch rate.
Blue Origin will go from kind of a joke to being a big military contractor. Making New Glenn essentially a favorite for the next big military procurement cycle.
They are basically buying their way into being a big military contractor.
Rocket launches are booked years in advanced. ULA also has many launch contracts 30+ from Amazon. This will again take many years to complete.
So that's why they 'have' costumers, because the selection process has already happened. When you buy ULA you are effectively buying their years long launch backlog.
In addition its really hard to become a Airforce costumer, and once you get there, its very hard to fall out of that group. So even while the next big batch of launches has not yet been selected for by the SpaceForce, its a virtual certainty that ULA will receive a large part of that contract.
I admit to being pretty disappointed at the confirmation though. Blue Origin would of done just fine without this merger and 3+ companies competing for US space launches instead of 2 would of been healthier.
Maybe Tony Bruno will launch his own space company? I always thought Boeing and Lockheed were holding him back.
https://www.blueorigin.com/news/blue-origin-debuts-new-glenn...
Yes, ULA will have finished Vulcan about a year earlier, but otherwise Blue Origin seems way ahead of ULA in terms of technology. ULA didn't even develop the Vulcan first stage engines, the most complex part of a rocket. I really don't see what Blue Origin expects to get out of ULA. Blue Origin doesn't need Vulcan, they will soon have something that is better in every way: New Glenn will have a reusable first stage and a higher launch mass.
> In 24 years, they haven’t gotten one gram to orbit.
ULA has launched a lot, but mostly with over 20 year old rocket designs that are based on even older rockets.
> ULA has launched a lot, but mostly with over 20 year old rocket designs that are > based on even older rockets.
by that metric the butcher around the corner here is better than ULA. He makes model rockets as a hobby and just tested one he just build and designed last year. And since it was designed last year and not a decade ago its also a newer design than New Glen. so its better?
Yes if New Glen works as designed and they can launch it it will probably better than what ULA now has. But that doesn't change the fact that BO has nothing yet.
BO is Old Space wrapped in New Space.
But seriously, he has sold over over $38 billion in stock [1]. The latest sale was part of a trading plan established last year.
If he wanted to buy ULA for cash he could literally go to any bank and they would give him a securities backed loan - rich people don't need to be liquid for most purchases.