This suggests huge space for competition to drive earnings growth down. But it's unclear when that will happen.
Totally open to being wrong here!
Given what we currently know, it is hard to say this valuation is irrational or crazy as some are saying in this thread.
What is crazy is Palantir up 4% after hours because of NVDA earnings.
We are certainly selling a ton of pickaxes, pans and shovels here. Not sure about how much gold we are really finding.
And more you've heard about.
And yet more you haven't, since they're in stealth.
Theoretically even Apple could start producing AI chips based on their Neural Engine.
The better NVIDIA's results are now the more that encourages the competitors to try and take some of the cake for themselves.
Lisa Su (Jensen's cousin, btw) seems to have turned the ship around.
TIL! Wow, that's wild.
Training is largely done on Nvidia cards, but there's nothing mandating that.
Google trained Gemini on their own in-house TPUs, and according to their published stats it exceeds ChatGPTs performance.
There's a collective delusion right now that somehow CUDA entitles Nvidia to a forever monopoly on GPU compute. There's no way they will maintain ~90% gross margins on their hardware sales. It's far too economically inefficient for purchasers in the long run.
The ones who figure out how to use competitor cards at less than half the cost will have a huge advantage
Right now it's fevered money pouring into what they see as the fastest way to get their feet into the game. Nvidia will do well, but that's already more than priced in right now.
But anyway, good to pull an exact figure!