Is AI also just a hype trend? How do we know? Only OpenAI seems like a true disruptor.
AI already has more legitimate use cases than crypto, and memes about shoving AI into everything aside, it has a much greater potential to disrupt in general as well as improve lives. One major difference is crypto is energy inefficient on purpose, while AI processing will happily accept and benefit from improved efficiency without suddenly suffering from a 51% attack.
The hype is real for AI but the difference is it didn't start by trying to convince people they could get rich using it like crypto did once the general population found out about it. The hype of crypto also required people to know how crypto works at a basic level before they can take part, while no special knowledge is required to tell an AI what you want to see and get it to spit out 8 different options to choose from. So from a user friendliness standpoint, AI has far less barriers for a person to get through before they can do stuff with it.
In some cases it helps the long tail of the market: DALL-E and Sora can probably wipe out most of the small business segment of users for stock photos and images, but not replace it for larger companies. Copywriting AI can help independent bloggers but not replace actual journalism.
In others it only helps the larger players (using AI for fraud detection, algo investing, medical diagnostics)
And then it's also about to become a bigger factor in defense/military.
Definitely not a hype or fad
AI lets people get more work done in less time at a lower cost. Like the internet itself, such a value proposition is sure to be a winner.
The early days of the the net were full of con artists trying to take people for a ride -- just like the early days of oil wildcatting and gold mining. But the immediate value of AI is already coming into view. It doesn't need scams to win.
AI is nothing like crypto
Thanks
- I think crypto is similar to Enron, credit default swaps, subprime mortgages etc: these were clearly scams at their inception, and they were run by some of the biggest scumbags in the country. A good independent audit could have nipped most of these problems in the bud. Instead, too many people smeared honest critics as partisan leftists, and these con artists got so large that they threatened the global economy.
- AI is (probably) similar to the 90's ecommerce boom: there are a lot of good ideas and clearly there will be a long-term impact to this tech. But any specific investment is extremely high-risk. There are a ton of people selling bullshit and magic beans - OpenAI is by far the most dishonest company in all of Silicon Valley - and it's very easy to bedazzle investors with an impressive tech demo. And it's very easy for a good company selling a good product to get steamrolled by some shitty Windows Copilot thing.