California EV sales are falling
latimes.com
latimes.com
I've always been a pessimist on the short term growth estimates of EVs, they didn't make sense to me. $35,000 cars (with subsidies) aren't really cheap cars. You can talk about how much maintenance EVs save, and yet the data says eg Teslas (the best of the best) have higher annual ownership costs than the competitors. You aren't really going to save money buying a Model 3 over a Honda Civic. That's a fact.
But, EVs aren't going anywhere, they'll only keep improving.
(I’m talking about costs after purchase, not TCO which includes the higher price. Maybe you were talking TCO)
4Q22, 1Q23, 2Q23, 3Q23, 4Q23
76501, 87816, 102991, 100151, 89933
19.0%, 20.5%, 21.8%, 22.3%, 21.1%
Yeah, there's a big absolute drop Q4 23, but it's still up a lot YoY. But a small percentage drop. It's simple, fewer cars were sold by everyone in Q4 2023 regardless of engine.
What the article says is that compared to the most amazing sales ever, sales are down a little, but still astronomically better than ever.
The sales of almost every model of EV are up astronomically.
Raw data available here https://www.cncda.org/news/california-new-car-dealers-associ...
That's when Tesla Model3 had the biggest declines in price though... and Tesla ModelY had plenty of price drops throughout 2023. If EVs are selling less, despite huge declines in price, is that not worrisome?
---------
We can also look at the used-price: https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Tesla-Model-3...
Used is important for people who plan to sell their vehicles later. If your car declines from $50k to $45k over a few years of use, you feel good. But if your car declines from $65k to $35k after a few years of use, you don't feel near as good.
Car sales are down all around. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/03/business/economy/auto-sal...
No car retains its value well, but for a long time the Model 3 retained more of its value than any other mainstream car. That's eroding now because prices are lower and the subsidy is back.
You can't have it both ways. Either we want cheaper cars or we want them to keep their value longer.
For one, I'm happy prices are down, it will help with adoption. It's ok that my car is worth less. I don't plan on getting rid of it.
- I have no idea what is going to happen with electric rates and no confidence in PG&E or the state to manage electricity provision or rates in a sane fashion.
- I don't qualify for the EV subsidy which makes ICE cars more attractive in terms of cost.
- I consider gas cars more robust in the face of natural disasters or sudden need to get far out of the Bay Area for whatever reason (zombie attack).
- Avoids the complexity of figuring out a home charging solution or how to change to an optimal one of the N electricity pricing plans.
For example, my Hyundai Elantra kept showing the engine light, and I don't remember the exact OBD-II code, but I think it was something like "too lean on bank 2" or something like that. Didn't really make sense because the engine was performing just fine and the injectors weren't clogged. So I went down to the auto parts store, got a new oxygen sensor for $130, replaced the old downstream one, and that code never came back. I'd have paid way more taking that into even a good shop.
I'm not saying that there's no good reason to get an EV because they're less repairable, but I'm the type who doesn't want to give up the kind of independence my current car gives me. I like that I have far more options for replacing the head unit in my car. I like that I can do wacky and kind of pointless things to it like converting it to being flex-fuel and running it on moonshine. But most people aren't like that. It's nevertheless a bummer that we are trading freedom for something that, hopefully, will be more convenient in the future – I'm not exactly sure how an EV is actually more convenient today besides being able to charge it at home.
Same reason I’m avoiding gas bbq or any other poison like this at home - that shit stinks and works like a horse. It’s so done.
I use about 10% battery per day and charge every night so my EV is on average “fuller” than my ICE ever was. Couple that with the ability to carry solar panels and charge in the middle of nowhere - doesn’t that give some pros to the EV in case of zombies? No engine noise either ( but I’m sure they’ll hear the heat pump if close enough ).
And California's EV sales requirements means that manufacturers have been dumping bad/unprofitable cars into the market for years. Many of these cars barely function in colder weather, so they don't propagate out to other parts of the country.
I see this narrative pushed a lot, but never with any numbers. When I look at the depreciation of Teslas they seem to be 50% after 3 years, which is absolutely standard in the UK for any vehicle. What are “decimated” numbers?
When I look at the non lux Chevy Bolt the used price doesn't seem that much off the tax and incentive adjusted price of a new one.
> The average car depreciation will hit hardest in the first year of ownership. Generally, the drop will be around 15-35% in the first 12 months. And that will continue to rise up to 50% or more over three years.
> Year 1: 15-35% depreciation. 65-85% of the original value.
> Year 3: 40-60% depreciation. 40-65% of the original value.
> Year 5: 60-70% depreciation. 30-40% of the original value.
> Year 8-10: 80% depreciation. 20% of the original value.
https://motorway.co.uk/sell-my-car/guides/car-depreciation-g...
I also just read the federal government is relaxing rules to give infrastructure and manufacturers to catch up
https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/18/24076585/biden-emission-r...
Is this really just an EV issue or are luxury cars in general seeing headwinds? I'd be interested to see data on that.
At E = 0.35, the EV wins whenever G > 9.6 E = $3.36. Can you get gas for $3.36/gallon or less in California?
Speaking of gas prices, what is up with the large variation among stations? Right now along a mile along the main road in my area it is $3.59 at ARCO, $4.09 at Shell, and $4.39 at Chevron.
The ARCO is no busier than the others so it is not like people are going to Shell or Chevron because the wait is less. They are all selling gas that has the "TOP TIER(tm)" certification so its not like your car is going to have problems if you don't pay an extra $0.80/gallon to use Chevron.
Heck, its not even that you get a better convenience store at Shell or Chevron. ARCO has AM/PM which is way better.
>There’s no survey to prove it, but there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest liberal-leaning California car buyers are done with Elon Musk’s abrasive personality and his stands on political issues. (Ask friends or neighbors who drive a Tesla.)
No, they'll spend and invest their money elsewhere.
Sorry, I can't help but anticipate these canned responses every time this topic appears.
EVs aren't affordable enough in 2024 (no, bro; getting a loan isn't affording it) and the infrastructure to support most cars being EVs simply isn't there. In fact, it may never be there. Even in California, public garages may have something like 5% of its spots support charging, and these spots are quickly crowded these days. To get even half of public parking spaces to have chargers would be expensive and strain the power grid, which even the governor indirectly admits is inadequate for widespread use of EVs. People know this unconsciously and make the practical decision of buying an ICV.
Tesla also sucks all the oxygen out of the EV room and gives EVs in general an increasingly bad name. So many white Teslas are on the road now that there is no longer any cachet in owning one. It is kncreasingly coming off like a Toyota Carolla. No one is impressed anymore, which is bad for the crows that buys them to look cool. Not a single Tesla owner I have talked to trusts any of the automatic driving or parking features, and I have heard many stories from people being put in to dangerous scenarios by these vehicles. Elon's public persona isn't helping at this point, to say the least.
If the monthly payment is affordable to someone, isn't that by definition affordable?
>Tesla ... gives EVs in general an increasingly bad name
This is an odd critique, I'd say that the bigger issue is that a lot of traditional auto manufacturers have done a poor job rolling out their electric vehicles.
Going by the technicality of numbers, it's "affording" in the most immediate sense. It doesn't take into account the risk of a person losing their job and not affording the payments or what they are sacrificing in the long term by being a debter. If someone uses all their life savings to buy a mansion, but by doing so they have pennies left over and no hope of retiring, normally people don't say that person can afford the mansion. Likewise, many people obtain things like cars via debt and put themselves in a precarious financial situation, and it would be a stretch to call such people wealthy.
> This is an odd critique, I'd say that the bigger issue is that a lot of traditional auto manufacturers have done a poor job rolling out their electric vehicles.
That is likely true as well, although it's difficult to distinguish whether other car companies are waiting for Tesla to "run out of bullets" before "launching missiles" at them. I can't read the minds of the people who run other companies that make EVs, thus I can't know whether they're thinking that way, but I find it rather plausible. Since most other manufacturers also produce internal combustion vehicles, they can take their sweet ass time.
Going by my own experiences, the decisions Tesla has been making, and the declining public perception of its CEO, my instinct tells me that Tesla (and perhaps the EV market in general) is going to have to see a decline before it gets a lot better. By no means am I suggesting that Tesla hasn't helped make some good things possible for EVs as a whole, but that it's gradually damaging the market it initially helped to create. Geeks (no offense) love to bring up Tesla's contributions to charging infrastructure and software, but the current state of things (and the state they will be in the near future) doesn't actually cut the mustard if EVs are ever going to go prime time. People of modest means need to see EVs as not luxury items to bolster the ego but as an obvious choice that is within reach of an affordable purchase. I'm not owning an EV any time soon because it makes zero financial sense to take out a loan for a Tesla when a used ICV fulfills all of my transportation needs. This is true for most Americans outside of the tech elite bubble. EVs are hardly there yet, and the question of whether there is actually enough infrastructure to support even half of cars on the road being EVs is still up for debate.
Like I mentioned, every discussion I've had with people in-person about Tesla vehicles, both with owners and non-owners, has been hardly flattering. Yes, this is subjective, and it's one man's experience. I'm just telling it like I've seen it. Next to no one I've met is impressed with these vehicles anymore, and often they find them to be disappointing. I haven't met a single owner who trusts the ability of their Tesla to park itself or do anything autonomously, and I've heard multiple stories of said features nearly getting people killed. Let me repeat that these are not anecdotes from randos online, but stories from people I actually know who own these vehicles. I live in LA, so I've plenty of experience being in these vehicles and knowing the people who own them. Yes, it's entirely possible that others have had the polar opposite experience. I nonetheless have to trust what I've seen and heard firsthand, at least to an extent. Moreover, the growing distrust of Musk is real, and he can't (yet?) be disentangled from the Tesla's image.
I want anyone reading this to absorb that I'm not against electric vehicles. What I am against is delusional mindsets that actually set back the long term progress of EVs.