I don't know, things actually seem to be trending the opposite. Who would have thought that people would spend so much time in facebook playing games that have seemingly no point.

I also disagree that HTML5 is any easier. After over 20 years of trying, it seems unlikely that browsers are ever going to converge on any kind of standard and even if they did there will probably always be people on a bad version.

Personally, I'm betting on a world with native front ends to REST web applications.