Don’t underestimate the last 20%! I don’t think this is just a matter of more training or more data. But yeah, 2-5 more years will not change the outcome you’re describing!
It'll get better, but I don't think they've been aiming in the right direction if the goal is to replace current production methods.
I think for prod work it needs what the auto1111 plugins have given SD - ControlNet etc, where you have a lot more control over the generation and the text prompt is just a small part of it.
Right away, the stock footage market is in danger because content creators will opt for a free (good enough) option, over having to not just pay for, and but look for exactly what they want and need.
There's plenty of other industries that will be affected, I can't say that 80% of people will lose their jobs, these things aren't a switch you flip, it's a gradual process, but over time we'll definitely see jobs made obsolete/optimized.
This technology is the worst it'll ever be, and we've seen how far it got in just a single year with Will Smith eating spaghetti and now Sora.
Isn't this a problem for Hollywood itself? Isn't the strength of Hollywood the capital to hire good actors and effects people etc?
You seem to be assuming that Hollywood will just fire all the actors and save money, but to me it seems more like Hollywood is in the danger zone too?
Now I don't know how long it took openai to put together that 10 minute demo video, if they ran 3x the resulting prompts or 100x more and had to cherry pick hard (ie that bird's head, I was expecting heavy morphing of those feathers but they kept their visual consistency, for sure this was not the first attempt with at-glance-perfect result).