So long, and thanks for all the bytes
chethaase.medium.com
chethaase.medium.com
I always thought of Android as, of course it succeeded, it was a big google project. But the story is far more interesting. They were somewhat of a small group, part of an acquisition and didn't actually merge with the prevailing google culture. Kind of kept to themselves and worked insane hours and were really into coffee.
Also, most of them had previous worked on similar projects. They had done the T-Mobile Sidekick and some of them came from WebTV, I think and BeOS.
Chet is a great comedian, I think he'll do well in his new interest. I'll bend the norms here and tell a joke. It'll be funny to Android insiders, apologies otherwise.
At one point, he hosted a get-together in his house, which was one of many things that led to incredible team cohesion. It was somewhat chilly, and we were sitting around in our jackets shivering a bit. One person said, "we should have an Android app for turning on the heat to warm us up." My response: "we already do, it's called GMSCore."
And, yeah, that GMSCore joke is too real.
How many people worked on the core of Windows NT? On a number of the big Unixes? Various minicomputer OSs?
What you probably do need is a chief architect--like Cutler in the NT case--to keep everyone lined up.
Of course, the full functionality of the system comes after lots more people build functionality on top of that core. Which is exactly why it’s important for that core to be coherent, powerful, and well engineered.
You can have the best chief architect in the world, but if everyone’s building on sand you’re going to get a crappy system. Whereas if the core of the system is solid, it will guide people into doing things better even without an architect.
The Mythical Man Month is, like the Bible, one of those tomes that everyone cites with reverence, yet no one seems to read or follow the principles of. The ideal team from corporate's perspective is what I call the RAMP -- Redundant Array of Mid Programmers. The idea being that if you get a bunch of mid programmers together and have them constantly communicating, you can get the output of one good programmer without the risk of one good programmer, since you can always replace any of the mid programmers that fail or falter. But this approach has a number of drawbacks: you don't actually get the output of one good programmer this way, and you don't get the speed of one good programmer either. Furthermore, you run into the same problems you do with actual RAID: similar components tend to fail on similar timelines, so you end up having to replace all the components at around the same time anyway. Programmers tend to burn out, or quit and look for greener pa$ture$, after a few years, so you may end up losing a significant chunk, if not all, of your team at around the same time.
But if you're an organization with billions in the bank, you can remain idiotic for much longer periods of time than any of your people are willing to stick around for and attempt to positively change things.
Speed to market is also a factor. If you pushing to release a new product, good engineers are very important. For big corporates with established marketshare and profits, it seems to be the thousand monkeys with typewriters approach
Different ecosystems have gone through phases of mass and focus, but times of concise clarity of vision from small groups (e.g., hardware rendering in Android 4.x, early days of CoreAudio, NTFS) move mountains that large teams never could.
A large dev team for something that complex it the classic case of the mythical man month. Some things just need to happen in series, and some things just need to happen first.
Best is to really understand what you are trying to do in the first place.
Shows how different people are. I only care what I am developing. I have my preferences but if generally language is the last thing I care about bar some pathological cases.
Me, after Ruby: “fools rush in where wise men fear to tread.”
Just like you shouldn't be so open-minded that your brain falls out, a language shouldn't be so dynamic that you can't tell anything about a line of code until you're in the middle of executing it. Maybe it's great for cranking out a CRUD web app in a weekend, but not so great for a product that's had 300 developers writing code for 10 years.
If you didn't know that going in you did zero research about the job you took.
I miss Bowser the Rabbit most, though.
https://chat.openai.com/share/a5a62c3f-aaf7-4adb-a3e1-b13780...
Thank you Chet. You have been sheer quality (q14) all year, every year.
Also, this isn't a "downturn"...the companies are mostly doing better than ever. This is a permanent restructuring in resource allocation. Companies are going to shrink headcount even as their businesses flourish.
I kinda reassessed who is benefiting and the actual importance of a lot of the work you do. Even though it's all framed as 'mission driven' and 'Changing the world' a lot of it really is only important so some mega corp can make a couple extra points on their stock.
I've talked to a bunch of people in the industry that had similar realizations. I've heard things like 'it's not something I can do today, but in x years . . .'
I believe there were a lot of people who reassessed an have a different view and that is and will continue to change the trajectory of many tech careers over the coming decade.
For instance, writing jobs pay terribly overall, with the quantity of them going down a lot due to the decline of traditional media and the advent of AI. Unless you've got a FAANG income nest egg or a trust fund to rely on, I wouldn't recommend anyone get into this kind of work as their main career, regardless of how fulfilling it might be.
Ultimately I suspect many people will be forced to try and stick out this recession/downturn just because tech is their best bet of a decent living.
Early? If you've been in tech (or any job, really) for 35 to 40 years you're going to be in your 60s (or close) which is a normal time to retire.
Now people who have run faster and faster on the hedonic treadmill with their inflated tech salaries, they are going to be in trouble.
This is especially true if you consider salaries world wide vs just the United States.
With so many people looking for work at the moment, I think a lot of these same companies have kind of a big head about themselves. Interviewing always sucks, but having to jump through a bunch of hoops, be ignored, or ghosted by some dopey SaaS company is really discouraging for a lot of people.
I myself decided to take a sabbatical so as not to deal with all this right now.
My partner decided to get "into tech" in ~2018. Her reason more or less amounted to looking at me and determining "it's a cushy job that pays very well." For a while, I tried pointing her to various sources to start learning a bit about software development and programming; there's no barrier to installing PyCharm CE and Github, after all. But there was zero interest and zero natural curiosity. She just did some certificate coursework, passed, then started looking for a job, and nothing beyond that.
In a lot of ways, software developer has been brought down to earth as a more "normal" career. You don't really hear about lawyers working on passion law projects at night or mechanical engineers designing skyscrapers as a hobby; the path for that is just go to school -> get internship -> get fulltime job -> do your 9-5.
The thing is, my partner isn't alone. She represents the vast, vast majority of new software developers in the past 15 years. The industry has grown, the pay has exploded, people who worked retail could parlay a 6-week bootcamp into a six-figure salary. Obviously people would hop in even if they didn't know what a compiler was.
But in a post-ZIRP world companies are seriously reevaluating the value of the average software developer. In 2010, a software dev was far more likely to have at least some personal interest in software, or even just computers in general. Now, you have software developers who never touched an actual, non-phone/tablet computer before entering their university courses. They're not stupid--they can pass a leetcode interview just fine--they just don't care about technology beyond using it as a means to pay rent.
Even if we return to near-ZIRP, there's going to be less demand for massive software dev teams. Everyone hates him, but you have to begrudgingly admit that Elon successfully demonstrated you don't need massive dev teams to build and run software, even at Twitter's scale. (obviously it has other problems due to Elon's incompetence, but nothing more developers would solve.) Most companies could cut their dev team size by 50% and end up net-positive due to less overhead--the challenge is figuring out which 50% to cut.
So, yes. The tech downturn for this group of people--the non-passionate 9-to-5ers, particularly juniors--will last for many years, and that will lead to many jumping to other careers.
What do you mean this revelation was recently demonstrated by Elon? The NATO Software Engineering Conference 1968 paper talks about the problems of having too many programmers of low skill. The 1969 paper talks about the same thing. Fred Brooks wrote the Mythical Man Month in 1975, covering this topic extensively. This has been talked about extensively for over half a century with regards to software, it wasn't just discovered by Elon in the last year.
You mean because he fired a lot of people and the website is still up?
Revenue has been falling precipitously. I'm not sure anything has been demonstrated yet.
If I remember correctly, he reduced the content moderation team, which led to an increase in hate speech, misinformation and CSAM. That's why big advertisers left and revenues crashed.
He then told those big advertisers to piss off and refocused his advertising business on smaller customers, which is why he doesn't need so many ad sales people any more.
Perhaps he should hire some developers and data scientists to better automate content moderation.
Advertisers leaving is a combination of instability caused by Musk's impulsive decision-making, uninformed bandwagoning based on the perception projected by aforementioned MSM and parrots (AKA peer pressure), and the state of the economy combined with the above forcing them to reevaluate their investments. Advertisement revenue has been dropping everywhere as it turns out.
You may ot even be wrong about "peer pressure", but that's how so much of the rest of the world works. Part of the downturn isnt based on economic logic but peer pressure: "BigCo is sizing down so we should too!". The aforementioned brand perception is the exact same way, but based on the consumers over the company. The Stock market as a whole is literally based on speculation.
As long as stuff is run by peoople, people will influence other people to make decisions based more on gut feelings than raw facts.
Most of the business models in tech are unsustainable. The ad-revenue driven explosion of the Internet over the past ~15 years has long since reached saturation. The data mines are all tapped out, and what have we learned? Mostly, nothing. Following a person's habits can help you target ads and drive them towards (mostly) unnecessary consumption. Then what?
Without ZIRP we're going to run out of the easy credit fueling such consumption. The economic hamster wheel is going to have to slow down. Then the realization that the SnR on the data being collected is practically 0 will set in. An immense amount of investment dollars was thrown at companies that charge nothing to the end user but collect and sell data to third parties. Yet that data is almost completely worthless.
I personally think fee-for-service is eventually going to make a (bigger) comeback, though another round or two of ZIRP might stave it off for awhile. As it does return, it is going to put even more pressure on companies to run lean teams.
This happened after the dot-com burst in 2000. At that time there were a lot of people in Tech who would have otherwise gone into marketing, accounting or whatever.
A lot of these moved out of tech into other fields. Or they moved into less technical roles like project manager or management.
1. I don't like the implication that junior = non-passionate. I'd even argue the opposite. Those new and hungry are most likely to be exploited and take whatever over the grizzled vet who's long had reality slap them in the face. There will always be non-passionate people but well: that falling passion seems to correlate quite well with the falling passion of companies to even pretend they want to better the world. Tit for tat.
2. The downturn is very much not correlated with passion. I've seen some 9-5'ers survive several rounds of layoffs and I've seen some of the hardest working engineers with almost a decade of experience slashed to the surprise of everyone. You look further in industry and you see some vets of even 15,20+ years cut. This isn't some calculated move to "drain the swamp". As usual, corporate is throwing darts on the board instead of seeing what each engineer brings to the table. If you're unlucky enough to be working on the wrong product at the wrong time (which at this point is just anything non-AI. Nothing is safe), it doesn't matter how talented you are.
The games industry is very much full of underpaid, underappreciated passion and is being hit just as hard as the rest of tech, so passion clearly isn't the answer to job security.
I of course can't speak for everyone, but I imagine there will be more startups/small companies forming over the next few years from people that were otherwise satisfied at BigCo. Tech has definitely felt like it devolved to being a cog in the wheel of raw profits over a field of innovation meant to make lives easier. You can't really get that back without sizing down.
If you can hold on to a job in a downturn, it’s a good opportunity to invest when the market is lower (which interestingly is not exactly the case now) so that you can benefit from it later.
But I guess the best time to quit is when you’re ready. Regardless of where in the cycle it is.
I've had the chance to get to know some more people -- people who are indeed in tech for mostly financial reasons, but who are still fantastic developers and care a lot about the craft. I realized that having dreams outside of software doesn't necessarily make you worse at it, or "less deserving" of the job.
And, I definitely wouldn't conflate "in tech for the money" with "playing politics" / stupid ladder-climbing -- I bet there's some nontrivial overlap there, but there are other reasons one might need strong financial stability, like if they don't have any kind of other safety net (from the government, from their family) to fall back on, and thus feel worried without a good foundation.
The worst people in the world already know this and run our industry. There's no reason we have to accept them.
If it wasn’t for science, art and tech for their own sake we would still be on the trees gathering bananas
Not sure what you're referring to with science at all.
What about:
- curiosity (much of science, mathematics, etc.)
- artistic expression (musical instruments, demoscene)
- fortunate accidents (penicillin)
- just tinkering around (all sorts of inventions)
- play and fun (many non-commercial computer games)
- communication (telegraph, telephone, email, ...)
- self-expression (blogs)
- being dissatisfied with something and trying to change it (many more inventions)
- basic needs (advances in food, shelter, medicine...)
- trying to gain a military advantage (all sorts of weaponry and defenses)
- exploration (e.g. traveling to the bottom of the ocean, or landing on the moon)
- ideology/philosophy/religion (GNU and free software; cathedrals; pyramids)
etc.
At the end of the day much of technology is motivated by human needs, interests, desires, fears, etc.
OP's move from tech to comedy writing shows that interest or passion can be powerful motivators.
Also, a military advantage is an economic one, there's no real difference between the concepts.
If nothing else, you just dismissed most of mathematics and basic physics.
It's also not confusing to me what the other person is saying, maybe you can clarify what your misunderstandings are before anyone can address them.
sure, all ambitions have a goal. I think the point is that not all goals have some economic goal in mind. The original blogging platform and internet as a structure did not have the goal of monetizing writing. And we're honestly seeing the consequences of attempts and failures to try and monetize such stuff on the net.
Maybe there was prestige, or research grants, or whatnot, but it's clear that there's many pieces of tech who's goals wasn't to sell off to a billionaire and retire in style. I'd call such research "tech for tech's sake".
tbh until we change the way to go about politics, or collective decision making, this isn't going to change.
If it wasn’t for “those people” or for tech being so lucrative to attract them, I would probably still do the same but struggle to make ends meet.
So I’m very grateful that tech is what it is today.
I personally love to code, I literally do it in my free time to solve my own little problems and/or just to learn, but I don't resent people who are only doing it for the money or because it's easier than most alternatives.
Sometimes you have to do shit you don’t want to do in order to accomplish what you do want to do. It’s on you.
I hope he does well in comedy, but I will miss his example: that you can bring even unusual talents and interests into work life and make something worthwhile of it
I wish him all the best with the new endeavour, and thank him for all the great content and communication he has been part of over the years.
I will though miss the banter dynamic between Chet, Tor and Romain on ADB.
p.s Highly recommend reading his book Androids on the history of the early days of its development
> I feel very strongly that everyone should try, to the extent that it makes some kind of sense if you squint hard enough, to do what they want in work and life.
This is much much easier to say after an entire career in tech. However I wouldn't give this advice lightly to people just starting over.
Here is a counterexample. I started my career following my passion and "doing what I love", so I became an academic and joined a university.
After 7 years I was burnt out, broke and hated what used to be my passion. And I had to essentially start over my professional career in the private sector.
These days I don't necessarily always love my day to day job, but I do enjoy more the lifestyle it afford me as a whole.
My takeaway is that earning money and growing your career capital early on has compounding effect over time, and more importantly, it increases your optionality in the future. Going into comedy writing is less scary when you don't need to worry about sustaining your family.
For example, you might have a passion for writing on the weekends, but to write as a job it takes writing every day, hitting deadlines, pitching books, getting rejected, making changes you don't want to, etc., etc.
The advice is sound, I think a lot of people just don't think through the reality of what a job in their field of passion looks like.
I've been a professional athlete for a long time and it's the thing people get wrong the most thinking they want to have their hobby as their job. That's why they love it, because its a hobby!
If you only want to do the "job" after you have financial stability, you don't want a job, you just want more time to do your hobby.
(For those HNers not steeped in the HHGTTG trilogy of six books)
Not saying Google is coming to an end, but perhaps the author feels this way?
It's great to see folks excel in multiple fields.
I'll bet he gave great presentations. Having a good speaker, who can draw out laughs, makes any kind of presentation a joy.
I assume that he has banked enough to follow his muse, so he can remain in the SF area.
I happen to love tech, so, when I retired, I actually increased my coding fervor (I was a manager, before, so I left all that stuff behind).
What’s even worse is when they do things like this post where there are little jokes about how it’s a financial burden to change careers or take a break rather than acknowledging how they have no risk of running out of money. Going to art school is the worst financial decision ever, tee hee! Yeah man, imagine what it must be like with student loans.
Great for OP for working at the right place at the right time and winning the proverbial lottery. I’m not sure what I’m supposed to take away from it other than “must be nice.”
Going to a pricey private school as a hobby/retirement activity must be real fun.
I mean, I didn't read it like this. It is absolutely a horrible financial decision to quit a top position at google to go back to school and then try to be a comic (one of the hardest jobs to get paid anything for). I didn't take "bad financial decision" as "fatal decision that will land him on the streets".
>I’m not sure what I’m supposed to take away from it other than “must be nice.”
It's just a dude with a blog who clearly has engaged readers making a big update to his life (that may indirectly affect some readers who are involved in AOSP). I didn't take it as some pity party.
But my personal take is that it's okay to not spend your life minmaxing finances. and it's okay (if it's in your power) to "restart" your career, or make a lateral move. If you want to have a more cynical take: At some point money is made to be used and he has so much money that more money is less important than a true passion. If you ever make that much, consider it ass well.
Personally, I feel like I got a bit greedy and could probably have called it quits a year or three back and been happier for it. I partly blame COVID for disrupting what might have otherwise been a better transition.
Right there in the post the guy is trying to tell us how tough this endeavor is financially but we all logically know that isn’t true at all.
> worst financial decision I ever hope to make.
Imagine a rich guy buying a Porsche telling you that it’s the worst financial decision they’ve ever made with a chuckle. We’d all call that a dick move. Guess what costs more than a Porsche? That’s right, full price tuition at DePaul with Second City comedy lessons. Just like how Chris Rock got his start, right?
Hopefully his cool project management and tech industry comedy routine is amazing and makes his median income audience that can’t afford to purchase basic housing anymore roll on the floor laughing.
And I don't really see how it's a humblebrag. Is recalling your career and accomplishments as you depart a company after 14 years a "humblebrag"? Would it be a humblebrag if he said he was retiring instead? Is having a blog in and of itself that talks about yourself bragging?
I think you're reading into things that either aren't there or weren't intended. He has an audience, he's leaving in midst of a downturn, and he's gonna be bombarded with questions and theories of layoffs if he said nothing. If nothing else, this blog is a firsthand account of what happened and why he won't be aroind the AOSP much. Hes even tongue in cheek about the lack of drama:
>For those brave souls who read this far looking for inside dirt on why I’m really leaving… I’m sorry to leave you so very unsatisfied. The company, the job, the people, and the work were great. But just in case there are any news site bots searching for possible clickbait stories, here’s a headline just for you: “Googler Quits to Do Something Very Different!”
There's definitely a STRUCTURE to successful comedy. Certain things have to be in certain conjunctions. Yes, there are definitely times when anticomedy will work, or deadpan comedy, but it's not an utter free-for-all.
If as a person you (yes, whomever's reading this comment) ever want to investigate what I mean, shell out for the Upright Citizens Brigade Comedy Improv Manual [1]. It's fascinating reading on the structure of something you've simply enjoyed without thinking.
[1] - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:BookSources?isbn=979...
In fact that’s my take from his post. First earn lots of money and then “choose” what to do. Otherwise you won’t really be choosing.
In all seriousness, career changes are very hard. I hope the best for him.
Is anyone who has exited the tech world still reading HN? What's it like on the outside?
[1] https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/charted-most-popular-u-s...
Not true.
Incidentally, just for fun I posted the whole article into GPT and asked it to evaluate the "correctness" of your comment. Its response was rather verbose, but here's the key portion:
> The comment states, "Author worked on android as his first job back when people hired entry level." However, this is not accurate as per the information in the article. The author clarifies that working on Android at Google was neither his first job nor his second; he had been in the industry since 1992 and accumulated roughly 31 years of experience before deciding to switch careers. His position on the Android team appears to be a result of his already extensive career rather than an entry-level opportunity.
On Twitter, people sometimes say, “Why don’t you keep your opinions to yourself?” I go, “You’re following me. I didn’t tweet at you.” That’s like going to a notice board in the middle of town, seeing a sign for guitar lessons, and yelling, “I DON’T WANT guitar lessons!” Well, it wasn’t for you.
Maybe hard to believe, but for a lot of people, it's way more interesting than hearing yet another self-proclaimed radical communist go on another rant about people making money.
People follow him on Medium, presumably because they want to follow his thoughts and are interested in what he has to say.
So for him to post to a platform of followers, explaining the most major life change of his life and announcing that he effectively won't be as involved in the Android community anymore all seems pretty reasonable.
If someone has a gun to your head forcing you to read it against your will than I suggest dialing 911. For the rest of us, there is nothing forcing us from reading it. So if its not of interest we just move on.
Making it to the top of HN contradicts this