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Comment by t8sr | Hacker News Reader

There were slightly more L7 EMs than L7 SWEs every time I looked, but there's nuance to that. If the company decides it needs an L7 EM and nobody is available to promote, they'll hire externally. Your chances of being promoted into that role are reduced by the proportion of L7 EMs who were external hires. The other nuance is that those numbers don't correct for overall tenure, but I don't know how that would change things. Finally, getting to L7 EM is maybe 30% in your control and 70% circumstances, but that ratio is IMO inverted for ICs.

So even though there are more L7 EMs than SWEs, you might still have an easier time getting to L7 SWE, if you're ready to be an L7 SWE.

Your point about ageism is well-taken. I'm not yet old enough to really feel it, but I have heard it's rough.

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> Finally, getting to L7 EM is maybe 30% in your control and 70% circumstances, but that ratio is IMO inverted for ICs.

That sounds like a positive. As an EM, there's a good chance you'll be promoted to L7 via pure luck - with no abnormal amounts of effort, and with no outstanding talent for management. It sucks if you're in the minority which "deserves" the promo (is super hard working and talented), but for everyone else, it's a free lottery ticket to a higher comp.

That's... not actually how that 30/70 statement is meant to be read.

Imagine as a simplified analogy, applying to get into Harvard. Imagine Harvard has 1000 spots to fill, and that there are 10,000 applicants with roughly equivalent credentials (because they all have: near perfect test scores, high GPAs, strong extracurriculars, etc.).

In that environment, one might conclude that, for people who successfully get into Harvard, it was 30% their own skill, and 70% "luck" that the they happen to be semi-randomly picked by the admissions committee who could've easily gone with a nearly-equivalent alternative.

So sure, in that environment, "luck" is a factor, but this is by no means a "free lottery ticket" because the near-equivalent applicants had to work hard and be smart to reach the point of being near-equivalents of each other... So it is with promotions in competitive tech companies at least, where good talent is the norm.

When an external hire happens, they don't truly know what they'll be like unless they've already worked with them, so they could actually be of a lower quality who lucked into it

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