I do think the idea of 'prompt engineering' isn't 'programming' in the low-level sense, but it's close enough for some peoples' needs to qualify, and will be a useful skill. But I think it'll be more like "being good at searching google" was a few years back. There was a period where you could be very productive understanding a few things about searching (filtering/keyword stuff, mostly) but that 'skill' isn't as useful today as google continues to put less emphasis on keeping those tools useful.
Similarly, being good with Excel. That's extremely powerful for a lot of people in their day to day jobs. Is it 'programming' in the classical hacker-at-a-desktop sense? No, but allowing people to get value from the computers in a way that's under their control (broad definition, I know) does, imo, fall under a large banner of 'programming'.
That said I don't believe using ChatGPT to hobble together some python code to call the GPT API would constitute "learning to program" any more than nailing two boards together makes you a capable carpenter.
But it must feel amazing for that 2-3x guy who is just trying to get his company off the ground, and that's great!
Aside: I recently went down a rabbit hole exploring fast food training videos from the 80s and 90s. It makes you appreciate the engineering (culinary, mechanical, and industrial) that allows a company to make a consistent product at scale, only requiring interchangeable, unskilled labor. Did you know that McDonald's claims that 1 in every 8 Americans have worked at the chain? You can get a fairly pricey jacket celebrating this fact[1]!
Perhaps we're finally at that point with computing. We know the externalities that have resulted from McDonalds and similar chains and, good or bad, we've accepted them. Over the next decade we get to watch the same with commodity knowledge work.
[1] https://goldenarchesunlimited.com/products/1-in-8-alumni-jac...