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Comment by reactordev | Hacker News Reader

“Invading a well-armed Europe is almost impossible.”

Funny, the world had the same thought in 1936.

War is fundamentally different now than it was at the beginning of WW2. A nuclear superpower cannot be invaded. You can poke the bear A LOT, but basically everyone recognizes that a ground invasion is crossing a red line.

That's the purpose of NATO. In exchange for giving up some autonomy to the US (letting the USA build military bases in your territory, not acting overtly against our interests), and paying us for our fancy weapons, NATO members get the immeasurably valuable power of a nuclear red line border, and protection by the most powerful military the world has ever seen. It's a very, very good deal, and the most stabilizing force in history.

Given the NATO membership of most of Europe, the only wars possible in Europe are small, regional conflicts between non-member states.

Well that assumes that NATO will hold its promise and defend the member state that is invaded. Lately, considering Trump's recent outings, this isn't set in stone anymore.

U.K. & France both have Nuclear Weapons

Trump has bigger things to deal with than NATO accounting imho. He should be so scrutinizing internally.

“War is fundamentally different now than it was at the beginning of WW2. A nuclear superpower cannot be invaded.”

You are right on the former, incorrect on the latter. Invasion looks different now that warfare has changed. You might have been invaded and not even know it. When was the last time you looked at your ssh logs?

Fair point. But if you want to use that analogy, maybe you are also willing to admit that the might of the Wehrmacht accomplished substantially more than getting bogged down about 100km beyond their initial borders two years into the conflict?

I will admit no such accomplishments. Where I'm from, we punch Nazi's in the face.

Not sure how admitting that the current state of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation relative to the rest of Europe is not as good that of the pre-WWII Wehrmacht has any relationship to punching Nazis.

I do not admire Nazi military accomplishments nor compare current military strategy to a world invasion. Russia’s military state is because Russia’s military doesn’t want this fight, but they must.

And they must fight because?

Otherwise they get shot.

So they basically just heroically breached Avdeevka because their boss shouted at them?

Nope, they cowardly did it because they did. No invasion is heroic. Ukraine pulled out to redirect forces elsewhere. Avdiivka isn’t worth the bloodshed.

Not sure if refusing to learn from history is the approach I would take to stop nazis or Russia, but to each their own I guess

I refuse to acknowledge any nazi accomplishments. That does not mean I haven’t learned from history. I think the evidence shows it’s the other way around. That people forget history and like to admire a fascist regime for their murder rate or ability to take down unsuspecting neighbors.

Russia got bogged down because Russia doesn’t want this fight. Russia’s Kremlin does.

Nobody "admires" the murder rate of nazis (except perhaps other nazis). People are horrified by the efficiency and success that Nazis achieved. It's a stark reminder of what can happen when the wrong people get too much uncheckered power. Denying or minimizing that it happened will make it more likely for it to happen again.

Indeed. Understanding something doesn't imply endorsing it

Fascists weren't efficient, broadly speaking. They presented the aesthetic of efficiency and disappeared anyone who called them out on their bullshit. For example, Mussolini's trains didn't run on time, apart from one or two showpony lines.

Ok so maybe the trains didn't run on time, but they invaded a lot of neighboring countries really fast. Something that Russia doesn't seem capably of doing, as was pointed out upthread.

It's not a good idea to broadly think "nazis are stupid, they won't get anything done". Sometimes they get things done and then we're fucked.

Germany was the 1930's equivalent of the USA in roughly comparable industrial output, the difference is that instead of creating a nicer society they gambled that they could overrun all of Europe by redirecting that output towards a war machine. The scary thing: their gamble almost worked.

And committing genocide in the process. Let’s not forget that part.

Definitely not forgetting that part.

Letters like these are written today as well:

"027 – Letter by guard Hugo Behncke to his wife, 28 January 1945

Today I’m on duty from 10 to 12, though without anyone relieving me and without the NCO [non-commissioned officer], so I’ll be able to cut a few corners. I can sit down and that makes the work fairly easy, so two hours are bearable. In the SS, everything apart from breathing is forbidden, but if you don’t break a few rules you’re not a soldier. But I always take care that nothing happens. Anyway, in the winter time the prisoners are disinclined to “travel” [escape]. I haven’t heard of a single case all the time I’ve been here. But in spring and summer we have to keep a really close eye on things.

    All they were good for was to be burned

There’s no table to write on and so my writing looks funny. Last night I slept in the next room. It was really cold in there. There has never been any heating in there. I have the space to myself because the others prefer to stay in the warm fug, but I moved out in particular because my neighbour in the bed above me has lice! Yes, lice! I’m not keen on those. I had enough of them in the First World War. He probably got them from being on the recent transport of prisoners to Neuengamme. The prisoners were all sick, dirty and thin as skeletons. All they were good for was to be burned in the Neuengamme crematorium. And a lot of them thought they were being brought to Neuengamme to be burned. Of course, many of them are stupid, primitive people. […]

The war situation is still gloomy, of course, but I’m putting my trust all the same in our counter attack after our enemies’ latest offensive. As I see it, everything is ready. […] So we’re hoping we’ll have victory soon, first over the Russians and then over the western powers. After we’ve won my comrades want to carry on […] as soldiers but not me! I want to get home to you and my children. "

http://www.camps.bbk.ac.uk/documents.html

> Germany was the 1930's equivalent of the USA in roughly comparable industrial output

Not even close. US had many times Germany’s industrial output in the 1930’s.

This isn't Twitter or your polycule's Wednesday night political discussion, my friend. Being proud of rejecting historical facts doesn't give you as many virtue signalling points as you think.

Besides an open military invasion (hopefully improbable), I'm afraid of slowly tilting and influencing border states (Slovakia, Hungary) to lean towards Russia, with maybe some future economic extortion, or in the very extreme case, staging an election/referendum to leave EU/NATO.

How did that work out for the Germans?

Someone was always wrong about something similar in the past.

That proves nothing about the present.

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