A quantitative test of Diamond’s axis of orientation hypothesis
phys.org
phys.org
Interesting work, but I'm not sure that it is all that counter to Diamond's expectations, that Eurasia is as ecologically heterogeneous. The thesis was that, because temperate regions connect to temperate regions (as opposed to the N-S orientation in the Americas where the two temperate regions are separated by tropical ones), stuff like domesticated animals or crops could spread more easily. It wasn't that Eurasia was ecologically homogeneous, it was that temperate regions connect to each other, tropical regions connect to each other, etc.
> Our second set of analyses compared the distribution of ecological barriers to cultural transmission between 16 important areas of the globe: centres of agricultural origin. While the first set of analyses tests a key ecological assumption in Diamond's theory (ecological biases in cultural spread), it is this second set of analyses that tackles (and casts doubt upon) Diamond's overarching message: Eurasia benefitted from a more homogenous environment along its major corridors of cultural transmission. One of his most prominent arguments in this regard was that agriculture spread very rapidly out of the Fertile Crescent. Contrary to that view, we found that this particular region can actually experience stronger environmental barriers within the corridors of agricultural spread than those observed in other centres of agricultural origin. This trend is particularly observable when considering aridity turnover at both close- and long-range, as well as close-range topographic costs. The likely reason for this discrepancy is that even though the Fertile Crescent has access to a larger area of contiguous landmass at similar latitudes than many of its peers (Diamond's main argument), it is nevertheless more ecologically atypical for its surroundings. Most notably, the Fertile Crescent is nourished by rivers but surrounded by large deserts, and these strong gradients in access to water are further compounded by nearby changes in prevailing winds and elevation (Figure S15). These findings remind us that dramatic changes in habitat and climate can occur even within small spatial scales. In contrast to the Fertile Crescent (and other Eurasian areas), South Tropical China, the Lower-Middle Yangtze and the Chinese plateau stand out as having low aridity related costs compared with most centres of agriculture origin. South Tropical China also shows low to mid-range temperature turnover values. Both aridity and temperature regimes would have been important for the spread of rice agriculture (d'Alpoim Guedes & Butler, Reference d'Alpoim Guedes and Butler2014; Gutaker et al., Reference Gutaker, Groen, Bellis, Choi, Pires and Purugganan2020), although archaeological evidence shows that human-directed water management systems were developed early and were part of the success of rice as a crop in these regions (Fuller & Qin, Reference Fuller and Qin2009). Thus, humans were working towards hijacking the conditions that were set for their crops by the local environment, a finding that strengthens the need to consider cultural factors when understanding crop domestication. Our results show that close-range topographic travel costs are not trivial in South Tropical China, and the Lower-Middle Yangtze and the Chinese plateau show one of the highest barrier levels along this axis. Thus overall, we do not find a consensus of universal low environmental barriers to cultural spread in Eurasian areas, as hypothesised based on Eurasia's East–West dominant continental axis.
I don't find this analysis very compelling. Sure there is local heterogeneity everywhere at every scale. But the important question is why would humans cross those barriers in the first place? Clearly there is a cost and some were willing to pay it. What's the reward on the other side?
In Eurasia, crossing the desert surrounding the Fertile Cresent would have lead to a myriad of diverse habitats, with optionality in all directions. In North America, crossing the high desert of Mexico from the north puts you into a narrow strip of jungle with no option to go anywhere but through it - a dead end. This is not an insignificant difference!
So while the ecosystems are locally homogeneous as the paper describes, it doesn't touch the core of Diamond's thesis - that the unique geography of the continents afforded entirely different travel opportunities - the reason why humans decided to cross those barriers in the first place.
(1) europe is surrounded by a large body of water (Mediterranean in south, Baltic & English Channel to north), enabling fast travel.
(2) Europe is extremely isolated geographically. Mountains, rivers & oceans isolated many cultural groups.
(3) the isolated nature of Europe, combined with access to mass transit (once sailing become prevalent) enabled technological expansion and competition.
(4) combined with massive competition from isolated cultures, once sailing was achieved, Africa and the Americas enabled massive raw resource inflows - creating growth and abundance
Eurasia in contrast consolidated around just a handful of cultures and often had an abundance of food and limited fast travel (via rivers & oceans) throughout history. This makes for less completion and although the stability enabled technological advancement and massive works. It also limited variation in ideas
Really, what you say is an example for why thinking about human development in this way is flawed from the beginning. There are no single factors responsible for the course of history. Whenever you try to identify some, your view becomes so myopic that it ends in these arbitrary Diamond hypotheses that require endless explanations for all the obvious exceptions.
But it’s not like the mountains, lack of fast travel etc haven’t defended while holding back Afghanistan for 3000 years. You can argue there are a million other issues there as well but that doesn’t contradict that macro point.
I think you are lost in an attempt to be contrarian where it isn’t really warranted.
But if you want to argue with me about that ask any soldier.
Yes, there are macros, but the point is that there are hundreds of them, they are all interconnected. If you pick just one you either make wrong implications (like the silk road region Afghanistan being isolated or lacking fast travel) or extremely trivial (like mountains being advantageous tageous for defenders in war)
The point here being that going across latitudes is harder because you're moving through many climates and water bodies with different equipment and technology requirements to pass through them. A single caravan might get to Persia using the same pack animals and equipment with which it left Tibet, but that's not possible if you're trying to get to Kenya or Australia.
And the thing about latitudes I think applies more to mobility of things like crops than to human travel, since you need to cross climate zones.
It was mostly about the exchange of domesticated animals and crop plants. You can start using crop plants you got from your neighbors, if the plants stay in the same climate zone, so east-west movement.
Obviously the book goes farther still, I wasn't trying to summarize the whole thing. The "germs" angle matters too, the pervasive Eurasian trade networks meant that acquired immunity could be traded like technology, leading to a Eurasian "fortress of disease" that prevented immigration but did nothing to deter colonialism.
Is it? The great plains from Germany to the Urals and the Pontic Steppe have both been crossed one way or the others by many population groups among the millenia.
- first arrival of hominids evolving into Neandertal;
- Cro-Magnon arriving from the Middle-East;
- Bell-beaker culture, probably from the Pontic stepp;
- Celts (maybe from the West, probably from the East);
- Romans;
- the crucible of Northern, Germanic and steppe populations (Franks, Saxons, Goths, Wisigoths, Alamans, ...) that were the Great Invasions;
- Celts again in Brittany;
- Northern-African incursions and the whole Mediterranean melting pot on the southern seashores;
- All the 20th century immigration waves (Poles, White Russians, Italians, Spaniards, Algerians, Moroccans, ...);
- and probably many others I forgot/don't know about.
And even in Antiquity/Middle-Age Italy, you have Gauls and Celts in the North (after all, Northern Italy was Cisalpine *Gaul*, not Northern Italia), many Italic populations (Sabines, Etruscans, Umbrian, ...), a lot of Greek people in the South, then the Romans; after them all the aforementioned Eastern populations, then the Vikings demesnes, then Germanic incursions and settlements, etc.So when they calculate differences in environmental barriers across continents, it seems important to take water ways into account, which would lead to eurasia having an upper hand over at least NA and Africa. I'm not saying that Diamonds original argument holds, and its great that they try to test the hypothesis.
https://static.cambridge.org/content/id/urn%3Acambridge.org%...
The path cost is dependent on the aridity of the path. They also used examples that specifically contradict your assertion- For instance they looked at an agricultural origin in Ethiopia which should have had easy access all the way to Egypt because of the Nile river. Why didn't culture spread from there instead of from Mesopotamia or Egypt, where those civilizations are at the end of their rivers and don't get any travel benefit?
Diamond’s analysis was not single factor.
But if we stick with geography, how many isthmuses create bottlenecks for migration annd exchange across Eurasia?
Look at the Middle East, which touches the Nile, the Mediterranean, the Black, Caspian and Red Seas, and the Tigris and Euphrates. How much of it is within 100 miles of temperate and navigable water?Now look at North America.
It was easier to convert energy to motion over long distances in a denser network of trade at the nexus of Eurasia.
Figure 4 of the paper shows 7 different factors, including sophisticated proxies like literally analyzing connecting paths.
So Americans knew of advanced planting techniques but didn't deploy them at scale for another 6k years. Why? The population had not yet risen to the density that necessitated full-scale, crop-dependent communities. Far from being behind the technology curve, I'd interpret this as wise governance and population management to avoid resorting to a lifestyle that some viewed as a low-class labor. Why break your back toiling in the field when you can eat buffalo and fish?
Edit: or seriously some, maybe there wasn't a drive to need it.
That is, yes to some degree, but not as strongly as Diamond claimed.
> Our analyses uncovered significant variation within continents in the magnitude of ecological barriers to cultural transmission, a finding that is consistent with the critique that Diamond's axis of orientation hypothesis is potentially reductionist and overreaching. More importantly, our results indicate that areas within Eurasia do not consistently rank lower than those in other continents across any cost type [...] at none of the time points considered did Eurasia have any clear ecological advantages over other regions. Thus, we find no support for Diamond's claims during the timeframe in which most societies around the world transitioned into an agriculturalist mode of subsistence.
Diamond's central claims are about Eurasian/European dominance, not a general claim about natural resources being advantages. The latter is, y'know, pretty obvious.
Graeber's proposition, if memory serves, was that while many of the programmatic approaches are true, human volition ultimately decides. I bring that up because the more I think about it the more evident it becomes, it's not just technology but just about anything.
And that was also true of his assertions on the sharing and adoption of technology - for instance North American native tribes refused to adopt the obviously superior instruments of their neighbors for cultural reasons.
1) Large herds of horses consume monumental amounts of grass, especially when they are on the move during military campaigns. The steppe is suited for continuous occupation by these herds in a way that most of Europe or the ME isn't. The Mongol's forays into non-steppe areas were limited by available grass.
https://www.historynet.com/mongols-on-the-march-the-logistic...
2) Related to this, abundant grass was why they had a horse-oriented culture and economy, and why horses were ridden by common people, and not just the elites - as in most all other areas.
3) While parts of Mongolia are mountainous and the Mongols and other steppe groups ventured into them, horses don't do well with very rugged terrain. Horses can't make it up many or most hiking trails in the American West, for example - they can't be too steep or have significant obstacles. In addition, again there is less grass in such areas.
To sum up, the Mongols and other riders needed the steppe for the abundant grass. The flatness of the Eurasian steppe also allowed for incredibly fast travel, which is why the Mongols, Turks, and others were able to have continuous cultures and empires from Europe to China.
Whenever the steppe conquerors conquered and ruled from non-steppe areas, they could not maintain massive cavalry (unless they were receiving reinforcements from the steppe). This leads to the treadmill of conquest and abandonment of the horse-oriented culture that made their conquests possible in the first place. That happened with the Iranians, Mongols, and various Turkic groups, among others.
Apologies for my historical ignorance, but who are The Horde? I mean, I assume you don't mean the ones from Warcraft, in which case I do know them.
And the eastern steppes allowed military raid alliances to put military evolutionary pressure on kingdom and empires.
The self sufficient battle sponge like structure of central Europe promoted constant cultural competition (unlike nowadays).
The model they used must be flawed.
Diamond's book is full of nonsense like this.
It was a big theme of the Diamond book, but don't think he said it was 'Everything'. I remember it being more of a proposed theory, and he does focus on Geography a lot. But maybe I'm splitting hairs, since it was such a big theme of his book, it might be the only thing people remember.
Diamond's actual argument is that it's a major, possibly primary factor. He then went on a speaking tour where he told anyone who was dismissive of his grand narrative that they should stop waffling about how complex the factors influence societies are and make their own grand narrative instead.
Lot of comments here are really debating what the word "Some" means.
Geography has "Some" impact to "Some" degree.
At what point does "Some" become a "Major" influence.
It was a major theme of the book, so if this current study indicates it was not 'major', only 'some'. Guess that is still valuable re-quantification.
Think all the methods used in the study are pretty valuable. Whether we agree or not with Diamond, I think this current study is good to quantify it.
Pretty unambiguous
""Environmental heterogeneity along Eurasia's major corridors of cultural transmission was not significantly lower than observed in other continents. One of the authors, Russell Gray from the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, summarizes the results by saying, "Our findings point out that geography, like genetics and ecology, matters, but it is not destiny."
Senior author of the study, Carlos Botero from the University of Texas at Austin, concludes with a word of caution, "We do not claim, by any means, to have a definitive answer on whether the wheels of history turned at different speeds in different parts of the world.""
I thought they did, it just wasn't very pronounced. There was impact, but not to the degree the Diamond book theorized.
"didn't" makes it sound a lot more definitive than the paper said.
The paper found that Europe's layout is in fact not significantly better or even different from many other places on earth where early humans developed. They even found that in many cases civilization flourished in direct opposition to those qualities, like in southeast asia where mountainous terrain was compensated with rice terraces.
They also confirmed that the things Diamond said about having interconnected similar areas etc being important to cultural spread were generally right, just that they aren't actually correlated very closely with europe/asia in particular. Diamond was right about them (they're very agreeable statements, and not unique to him) but they don't support his thesis.
Though I still don't quite understand what is the original question here. I have not read Diamond's book, so I don't know what he is exactly trying to explain. The phys.org source talks about "Eurasian political and military dominance".
First, the focus on Asia (in addition to Europe) is strange. The renaissance, the industrial revolution, the demographic transition, secularism, constitutional democracy, institutionalized science etc all started in Europe and not in Asia. So apparently Diamond tries to explain the current political dominance of (some parts of) Asia. But then he would need to also take into account the US, not just Europe and Asia. So I don't really understand what we are trying to explain here.
One important point that hardly anybody dares to mention is that people of East Asian and European descent have significantly higher IQs than people from other geographic areas. Personal IQ is highly correlated with measures of life success, like income, highest education degree etc. Moreover, national IQ is substantially correlated with per capita GDP. We also know from twin studies that adults have similar IQ to their biological parents, not their adoptive parents. This suggests IQ causes both personal and national success, and isn't just correlated with it.
So arguably the task should not be to explain some sort of "Eurasian" dominance, since this dominance can likely be explained sufficiently with IQ as a proximate cause. The open question is rather why people of East Asian and European descent have a higher average IQ. Or why modernity began in Western Europe, not Asia, despite East Asians today having higher IQs than Europeans (excluding people of Ashkenazi Jewish descent, which have higher IQs than both gentile Europeans and East Asians).
I don't blame you if you'd rather not look at the research too closely, it kind of feels like an infohazard. But it's a good source to bookmark and to perhaps come back later.
But reality is what it is. It doesn't care whether someone labels a hypothesis as racist or not. The only way to grapple with reality is to find out what it is.
God, what a disappointing euphemism. Just stick with redpill, would you?