> When money was essentially free to borrow, it made all the sense in the world to make a large number of bets because the odds were on your side that at least one of them would pay off. Now, however, each bet comes with a real opportunity cost, so companies are making fewer speculative bets and thus need fewer people.

I disagree with this. Interest rates were very low for a long time. Tech hiring and salaries only boomed because of COVID. Companies needed to adapt or they would not be allowed to function; and these companies needed new software tools to handle it. COVID also encourages quite a few people to retire or move companies. Why work here if you can be in the hospital for another month? That same mentality also contributed to job hopping. Companies over hired just to deal with growing turnover. They said they over hired.

Interest rates do not help, but before generative AI, the best new startups would do is put an app for a traditional service or sell NFTs. It was not real innovation in those low interest times.