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Comment by brandonagr2 | Hacker News Reader

What about Toyota's plans makes you think they will ever catch up to everyone else with EVs?

>What about Toyota's plans makes you think they will ever catch up to everyone else with EVs?

Their history of engineering and execution.

What makes you think think they can't? EV proponents like to argue that the simplicity is what makes EVs so great, but at the same time making arguments like "no one can catch up".

Believe it or not, it's not a certainty that EVs are going to be the solution, rather than just an improvement on our way to something else.

What else?

What makes me think they can't catch up is watching them spend dramatically less than their competition on the needed infrastructure when they are already very far behind.

To catch up from behind, you need to do more than your competition.

When someone else has already spent money on the hard part of being first, those that follow do not need to spend the same amount of money repeating the same mistakes.

This is an article about a single factory - Toyota spends upwards of $30 billion a year in CapEx -- Tesla spends under $10 billion per year.

Toyota's battery complex in North Carolina is a greater spend than the entire annual budget from Tesla and will have about the same output as Tesla's "gigafactory". The $1.3 billion in Kentucky is in addition to that.. it's a mistake to think they're not investing heavily.

https://www.just-auto.com/news/toyota-to-double-investment-i...

I would imagine the catch up is not in the form of a factory, but with raw material supply chain.

Tesla would've locked in cheaper lithium supply than toyota.

Sure Lithium is important - but Toyota has been selling hybrids for 25 years... so of course they already have a pretty sophisiticated lithium supply chain.

Here's one article from 2018 where they secured 100% of the sales rights to an Argentinian lithium mine that is equivalent to all of the lithium Tesla used worldwide in 2021.

https://www.toyota-tsusho.com/english/about/project/04.html

It's actually inconceivable to me how Musk & Tesla were able to launch a new auto manufacturer, especially with a novel drivetrain. The amount of things that had to go right, the number of decisions they had to make, the number of supplier agreements and sales agreements are a massive, monumental lift. The world is a better place for Tesla existing and for proving the market for electric cars.

However...

People massively underestimate the amount of money the big OEMs can throw at these problems. Toyota Group has an entirely separate mining and materials company with as much annual revenue as Tesla's entire org: https://www.toyota-tsusho.com/english/ir/library/integrated-...

Tesla has ~$100 billion in assets, Toyota has >5x that. I hope Musk settles down with his silly time-wasting edgelord nonsense on Twitter and focuses on Tesla and SpaceX - with more of a steady hand and a singular focus on EVs, I think they could be the largest manufacturer in the world but they're not there yet and a slightly cheaper lithium supply isn't the unique advantage that's going to get them there.

Correct. Toyota's bet is simple: what makes rational economic, environmental, and good-policy sense for most locales is not an EV. It's a hybrid.

And it's a bet that's working well so far: https://fortune.com/asia/2023/12/28/toyota-hybrid-cars-sales...

yet they refuse to build hybrids in large numbers. RAV4 primes and Prius primes are insanely difficult to get at or near MSRP. Toyota is saying that Hybrids make the most sense, but still use hybrid as an upsell for a higher trim, and thus only makes a fraction of their cars as hybrids. If >50% of their vehicles were hybrids, i'd be ecstatic and would agree with them, but currently it's just whataboutism and misdirection

they don't refuse to build. they fail to match production to demand due to logistical reasons. factory discussed here it's literally solution for production problems that they have.

when i was buying hybrid volvo a few years ago and talked to dealership boss, i was told that volvo got surprised by demand and they simply don't have enough battery packs in order build more.

and things like battery pack for car, it's not something that you can just ramp up capacity from today to tomorrow.

Hybrids combine the costs and maintenance issues of an ICE with the costs and maintenance issues of a BEV. This is a lot of unnecessary complexity and cost for what will ultimately be a short transition, during which China will substantially eat into Japanese automakers’ markets and gain the upper hand in battery supply.

They don’t need to innovate just execute and Toyota is all about execution. Build a car people want and let sales drive future investments.

Yeah I wouldn’t bet against Toyota in a game of catch up. They’ve proven over and over that their real strength is in doing what other companies have proven out and doing it better and more efficiently.

Execution like the wheels falling off their flagship all-ev car? After they've been making cars for 85+ years.

https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/wheels-falling...

https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyotas-fix-bz4x-disconnecti...

That doesn't get the headlines and attenion that a icon enlargement software update on Tesla does on HN.

Teslas Have a Minor Issue Where the Wheels Fly Off While Driving, Documents Show - https://futurism.com/tesla-flaws-failures-blame-drivers

It's really easy to cherry pick problems when someone makes millions of cars every year.

Toyota was forced to recall all their BZX cars for that issue, whereas the scale of the problem you linked appears to be much lower across Tesla's models.

"All their BZX cars" = less than 5,500 cars total. It wasn't just a completely new car model, it was the first one built on Toyota's e-TNGA modular EV platform. The factory line had just barely gotten off the ground.

Toyta sold ten million cars that year so scale wise that doesn't even qualify as a rounding error. The Teslas suspension problems that caused some wheels to fly off effected tens of thousands.

It was a voluntary recall on an extremely low production vehicle (at least at the time), a total of 260 cars with a potential issue.

Compare that to the tens of thousands of ACTUAL INCIDENTS identified by Reuters through Tesla internal documents and Tesla's refusal to even cover the repairs, let alone proactively recall all potentially affected vehicles. Much of what was covered by Reuter's occurred AFTER China forced a recall for the exact same issues.

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-is-conducting-a-safety-r...

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-mu...

Wasn't that about one incident, where the driver was in a traffic accident before the wheel fell off?

Wheels are actually designed to fall off in an accident.

I think Toyota feels comfortable being a follower in that case and eventually use a large number of suppliers for the basic things that Tesla as a first mover has or wants to develop themselves.

That'll be an interest test -- the reason Tesla is so vertically integrated is because it allows them a greater profit margin. They've already been using that margin to slap around other manufacturers and force them to sell in the red.

If you mean stop manufacturing Internal Combustion Engines, Toyota have said many times, they do not intend to "catch up to everyone else" with EVs. They have the luxury of sitting and watching their competition leave the market, thus leaving Toyota's road to great profits wide open.

Only works if the competition does indeed leave the market. The risk of staying out while everyone else embraces the next generation technology is a reduction in customer loyalty. Every current Toyota owner who buys a competitor's product is potentially someone who will switch loyalties going forward.

The electric car Toyota is selling now is doing quite well sales wise. (at least in Norway)

They have a whole line of them "coming any day now".

They have a lot of people who love the Toyota/Lexus brand.

Toyota has probably shipped more battery capacity in hybrid cars than most EV manufacturers to date.

They don't need to catch up to anything.

5 million prius * 14 kWhr 5 million tesla * 50 kWhr

This is probably true, hybrids may win in the US market in the short term until they are outlawed?

They'll never be outlawed. There are too many use cases for 300+ mile trips in remote areas where recharging isn't possible or less remote areas where it isn't practical.

There are laws in effect already: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-...

If it’s anything like Canada it still allows for hybrid. Banning everything but BEV will never happen because Bev will never work for a small subset of users

they have similar law in Canada: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-electric-vehicles-20....

That’s literally the one I was talking about, it will still permit hybrid and there is no requirement for everything to be a BEV

> it will still permit hybrid

article says plugin hybrid, not just hybrid, which is kinda loophole.

a hybrid is still a hybrid that you can just keep filling up with gas and never plug-in.

yes, though in California cars required to be 0 emission by 2035

no? it seems to be the exact same rules as canada?

> new cars sold in 2035 and beyond are zero-emission vehicles which includes battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles.

I can't find any mentions of hybrids nor plugins in actual executive order: https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO...

it just says: zero emission, and hybrids are obviously not

that is the exact same language used for the canadian law. "zero emission" includes hybrid

https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/documents/cars-and-light-tr...

your page is not law.

And the law does actually not define “zero emissions” as a car that makes no emissions lol hybrids are permitted by how it defines them

> until they are outlawed?

In the US? When hell freezes over. In the Nederlands? Probably in 5-6 years.

They're still killing it with hybrids and the rest of the industry, having realized that "all electric" is a little too early, is scrambling.

The RAV4 is the top selling "SUV" in America(1) and it looks like close to 50% of those are the hybrid model.

1. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars...

In 2022 it was 48%: https://evstatistics.com/2022/07/48-of-1h-2022-toyota-rav4-s...

If Toyota shipped the same annual battery capacity as Tesla then they could sell 100% of their vehicles as hybrid or plug-in hybrid instead of 30%.

This might be true cumulatively but certainly isn't true on an annual basis anymore.

If Toyota were shipping the same battery capacity as Tesla they could make every car they sell globally a hybrid or plug-in hybrid and they are at about 30% of that.

You are assuming that 100% of Toyota customers want to buy EV vehicles.

I wasn’t, but who wouldn’t want a hybrid?

How many EVs does Toyota sell each year? A few thousand or perhaps tens of thousands? It's at best a rounding error. Not something Toyota customers really have to worry about.

Test drive a RAV4 Prime.

All it needs is more battery capacity, which apparently they are indeed investing in.

RAV4 Prime owner here. I completely agree with wanting more battery capacity. For my use case, it has been a minor complaint. Been very happy overall with it.

I could walk in and buy Model Y any time I want. Not so with Rav 4 Prime.

Plugin hybrids are the future.

tesla fans defending how easy it is to find a Tesla in stock is a new one. grand.

I don't think that's the point they're trying to make.

Hah, try doing it via lease ... the supposed 'seamless' experience completely falls down ... I've just spent 5 months handholding a model 3 order, only for it to fall down at the end when Tesla tried to stiff our company for £3k.

Ended up leasing a BMW i5 because of the complete waste of time and hassle.

I'm glad it wasn't my car but, based on the experience, I wouldn't go near that joke of a company ever again. Lost a repeat customer too.

Takeaway: their staff listen more to their robot portal software than they do to rational customer experience.

And I know I'm p'ing in the wind ... but Tesla (in my experience) get way too much credit. I've had better experiences with conventional dealerships (and that's saying something considering how bad they are).

N=1

> I've had better experiences with conventional dealerships

I don't know how.

I've got dealing with conventional car dealers down to an art form, and it still isn't even remotely comparable.

To get a Tesla you order it online and then go in for an appointment to pick it up. Hand them the payment, they already have all the paperwork ready for signatures, they give you the key cards and offer to help you install the app. You accept delivery and drive home. If you want, you can easily be in and out in 15 minutes or less. And the delivery guy doesn't try to sell me anything. No extended warranty, nothing.

Maybe I had a particularly bad experience, but what you describe is what I was expecting.

What I got was 5 months of hot potato juggling, inept delivery advisors (which I later discovered to be because they had no power and rigidly stuck to their what their portal says), confusion and countless hours spent handholding a very simple order. Only for it to collapse at the end because pricing changed (BECAUSE of delays when Tesla messed up the order).

Anyway ... joke company, and I'll not go near them again.

I tried for a while to score a RAV4 Prime. Dealers were assholes about it, they don't have waiting lists or anything like that. "Come by every morning to see if any show up. We sell them all within 15 minutes of arriving so we don't need you."

So I bought another Tesla. At this time the Toyota experience has left such a sour taste that I will probably not ever consider one of their products in the future. Other manufacturers have really stepped up their game anyway, so it's not like Toyota makes the only reliable car you can buy.

As much as I dislike Toyotas ego, they do make fairly good vehicles, which is why they are in high demand.

Easy to catch up when EV market is shrinking. Toyota is right, gas hybrids are the future. Awesome range, you don't have to own a home to charge one, no problems in cold weather.

The EV market was 30% larger in 2023 than 2022.

Lagging indicator. Hertz is dumping their Teslas and canceled their purchase of 65k Polestars.

If you want to cherry-pick random anecdotes I'll counter with multi-year waitlists for Hyundai EV9 despite being expensive and ineligible for the $7500 rebate.

>Hyundai EV9 despite not being expensive

It starts at €70k. In what world is this not expensive? Maybe in Bay Area Fang wages.

Sorry, typo. It being very expensive makes the wait-lists surprising. If it wasn't expensive wait-lists wouldn't be surprising.

> It being very expensive makes the wait-lists surprising.

Does it? Ferraris, Zondas and Koenigseggs also have big waiting lists.

Expensive things to the well off sell easier than average products to the ever shrinking middle class.

I guess compared to other competing family EV-SUVs in the segment it's not too expensive. Come to think of it, there isn't any. The Rivian R1S comes close, but way more expensive and isn't really a family SUV. The EX90 is also more expensive and according to some it isn't even nearly premium.

Wait lists for a manufacturer are somewhat interesting. It's interesting that Tesla and Toyota both sell cars faster than they make them, and can get away with making new car buyers wait for months.

Wait lists for a single model? I mean, maybe Hyundai just aren't making a lot of EV9s.

Maybe EVs aren't good rental vehicles. This seems like it would be true, at least until public charging infrastructure catches up. And at the same time, maybe EV adoption is growing really fast. That also seems to be true, because the numbers say its true.

The thing about hybrids is that while you get the benefits of a gas engine (not needing to charge), you also get most of the combined drawbacks of ICE cars and EVs. You still need to go to the gas station, change the oil, maintain the belts and filters, etc. If you're mostly driving in EV mode, stale gas could even be an issue (though that's probably not a huge concern for most). But you've also still got electric motors and battery that could fail, although admittedly the battery is a lot cheaper.

IMO hybrids could have a lot of life as a stopgap, but full EVs are pretty clearly where things are going. We've got chargers being installed (Tesla 4th Gen) that can charge at 600kW. Cars can't handle that yet, but the current 800V platforms are getting closer. Once you can get the better part of a full charge in less than 10 minutes, it's not really less convenient than stopping for gas on a trip. And as more people get EVs (and even PHEVs), more buildings will be equipped with charging. Even a regular 120V outlet is fine for most people for day to day overnight charging - especially if they can get a quick top-up to near full at a supercharger when needed.

Summary: hybrids are great for a lot of people right now and in the near future. In the medium to far future, EVs are going to be superior in, I think, all relevant metrics^. (Even cost, as batteries will get cheaper, while the cost of added hybrid components will stay roughly flat.)

^Well, except weight and sound, specifically thinking of sports cars. I'd be a lot more excited about the new electrified Porsche 718 (Cayman/Boxster) platform if it were hybrid instead of full electric, for those reasons. Not super relevant for commuter cars though.

>If you're mostly driving in EV mode, stale gas could even be an issue (though that's probably not a huge concern for most).

volvo hybrids force engine operation in case gas wasn't refilled/used for too long.

Makes sense. So yeah, not something the end user would really have to worry about then.

well, if you will go to hybrid car forum to "peak covid" timeframe, a lot of users actually worried about it. this kind of stuff is rather obscure functionality mentioned deep inside the manual that nobody bothers to read.

also, this is volvo. no idea how other hybrids tackle this issue

In present day reality though, most people live in cities in cheap apartments that won't have chargers for at least a decade. I watch woodpeckers destroy the wood trim at my building, you think mgmt is going to add EV chargers any time soon? Hybrids have superior reliability and lower cost of ownership than pure gas which is why uber drivers and nyc tax have adopted then en masse. All of the disadvantages of hybrids are theoretical or from some lofty "elegance" perspective when in the real world, hybrids work brilliantly. Toyota has been ruthlessly pragmatic with their cars and that's why they've worked. It's admirable how much they've avoided the EV fad and stuck to practical vehicles. It'll be at least a decade until they're on par with hybrids.

Definitely lower cost per mile due to the fuel economy. Clearly they make a ton of sense for taxis. Do you have evidence for the higher reliability than pure ICE cars? I hadn't heard that, and it seems counter-intuitive to me. I certainly know anecdotally I've heard many claims of Prius hybrid batteries failing. (Which isn't necessarily a huge problem, but just saying it adds a point of failure without, as far as I can tell, removing any.)

The fact that they already sell the most popular electric vehicle in the US and Japan, and have done so since they launched the very beginning of electric vehicles, over 25 years ago? (Pruis)

Hybrid. I'm nitpicking, but current full electric Toyota cars are not that good or popular.

Electric cars are not that popular, period.

Hybrids may turn out to be a more popular option.

Hybrids have basically all the possible parts that can break.

But Toyota’s hybrids have a very good reputation regarding longevity and low cost of ownership.

Not really, the transmission can be made much simpler and more robust.

But the entire selling point of Toyota to most people is that it WONT break, at least for 150k miles.

> Electric cars are not that popular, period.

That is a matter of opinion. As a brand new technology, I think a market share approaching 10% is incredible. Only fans thought this was possible even 5 years ago.

What I meant is that Toyota electric cars are not popular inside the electric category. From range to charging speeds, they're behind other brands.

Ha, I read that as Tesla and it's still true. Almost like there's more to a car than range and charing speed.

Yes, there's more to a car than range and charging speeds, but that doesn't change the fact that Tesla makes some of the best selling EVs and that Toyota doesn't.

Even if you care more about build quality and comfort, there are cars from VW, Audi, Hyundai, Mercedes, etc, that are better than, say, the Toyota bZ4X while having better range and charging. Toyota simply doesn't make the best pure electric cars.

Ignoring that Prius is a hybrid and not an EV:

Toyota sold 30k in 2023, the lowest number ever.

Tesla sold 400k of Model Y and 210k of Model 3 and 31k of Model X in 2024.

So Model Y outsold Prius by 13x in US in 2023.

---

https://carfigures.com/us-market-brand/toyota/prius-family

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/01/29/tesla-model-ys-huge-gro...

Look at the insanely huge sales of the RAV4 hybrid. Americans don't buy small cars, we buy SUV/CUVs and Toyota is the king.

Didn't the Model Y outsell the RAV4 in 2023? I guess there are estimates that go both ways on that, but nobody really disputes that the RAV4 and Model Y are neck-and-neck. Would be nice if Tesla released actual numbers.

Doesn't look like it.

4. Toyota RAV4 (434,943 units sold)

5. Tesla Model Y (385,900 units sold, estimated)

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars...

This source says the Model Y sold 403,897 (still behind the RAV4) https://www.visualcapitalist.com/best-selling-vehicles-in-am...

This source says Model Y sales were 394,497: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/06/top-10-best-selling-cars-in-...

And this source says Model Y was #2 and RAV4 #3.

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/07/tesla-model-y-is-2-us-best...

My point stands, Model Y sales are matching RAV4 sales, for all practical purposes. And it happened in the space of a couple years. Toyota sells a lot of cars, but they're not the undisputed king of the hill.

Also, not all RAV4s are hybrids. Model Y definitely outsold RAV4 hybrids. Though hybrids aren't any kind of EV (unless they are plug-in), so that's moot.

Why are we restricting ourselves to Rav4's? Toyota sells well over 2 million EV's per year, far more than all Teslas.

And yes, HEV's are EV's the same way BEV's are.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1181404/alternative-sale...

The vast majority of Toyota hybrids cannot be powered by electricity from the grid. I'd say that's a significant difference.

why do these have to be estimated? I get that Tesla might not be releasing the numbers, but these cars have to be registered, right? The registration numbers seems like it should more accurate as actual owners.

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